BtB Saber-Slanted Fantasy League: Projected Standings

The Beyond the Box Score Saber-Slanted Fantasy League drafted last Saturday, and there was a request for rosters for each of the teams involved. I went ahead and made a Google Spreadsheet of all the rosters as of the draft date, but then I took it a step further.

With the projection systems out there, I thought it would be cool to see projected standings for this points league based on one of the systems (OK, actually, somebody suggested this directly after the draft, so it wasn't my idea). Here's what I did.

- I downloaded CHONE's projected stats from FanGraphs.

- For each player, I turned those counting stats into rate statistics per PA for position players and per IP for pitchers.

- I used those rates and the Community Playing Time forecasts from Tom Tango's site to come up with projected lines, calculating numbers for projected starters for each fantasy team only (I may have missed out on a few guys).

- For closers, I used the FANS projections for saves and some guesswork for holds.

The results are there on the spreadsheet as well, but I figured I'd show them conveniently here.

CHONE Projected Standings

Team Offense Pitching Total
Roto Ratz (Zach) 7548 6352 13899
Outside the Limes (Sky) 7256 6395 13652
St. Johns Redmen (Nathan) 7427 6147 13574
The Grues (Justin) 7617 5892 13510
The Reluctants (Me) 7421 5938 13360
Low Leverage LOOGY's (Lee) 7312 5925 13237
The Daily Thumping (Bill) 7251 5975 13226
Rabble Rousers (Erik) 7544 5629 13173
God Damn Brewery (Jack) 7436 5594 13030
Maple Slayers (Shane) 6966 6052 13018
Replacement Level Roto (Jared) 7084 5825 12909
Stumptown Browns (Will) 7441 5360 12801
Slavia (Viktor) 7117 5640 12758
Chicks Dig the Longo Ball (Alex) 6535 6186 12720

 

A couple of notes on these early projections:

- These standings do not include any additional changes since the draft, so it will miss on a few teams who currently starting players who are hurt.

- The competitiion is fairly packed at the top, with Zach projected to be comfortably ahead but with three teams following him tightly packed at around the 13,500-point level. There is another strata starting with my team down to around 13,000 points where things are also pretty close.

- Due to the way the playing time projections were calculated by Tango, no player got more than 625 PA projected, meaning that some of the high-end position players who do stay healthy over the course of the season may give an extra boost. There is a similar but lesser effect on pitching side, with no pitchers garnering more than 203 innings pitched.

- Replacement Level Roto's offense was the most damaged by the offensive effect; Jared's team was only projected for 4889 PA and still broke the 7000-point mark. Alex's team, Chicks Dig the Longo Ball, also went under 5000 PA by 74 PA.

- Sky's strategy of snagging up as many available projected starters who qualified for relief pitcher positions may have paid off. His team projects for the most innings pitched and the most pitching points in the league. Running counter to that strategy was Zach's method, which grabbed two of the best projected relievers in the game (Jonathon Broxton and Heath Bell) along with Ryan Madson and netted him the second-most pitching points. To illustrate that point, Broxton projected as the best reliever with 560 points (43 saves). Sky's worst projected relief option is J.A. Happ, projected at 627 points. This may prove to be a big advantage.

- Jack ended up with a decent team despite auto-picking the entire night and ending up with Vernon Wells on his team.

- Sky made a controversial selection in taking Joe Mauer second over Hanley Ramirez. Mauer projects at 934 points in this methodology, while Ramirez projects at 1118. The next best projected C is Brian McCann at 793 points, a dropoff of 141 points, while the next best shortstop is Troy Tulowitzki (drafted in the same round) at 956 points, a dropoff of 162 points.

- Alex' team loaded up on pitching, selecting Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, and Adam Wainwright, three of the top 10 pitchers. A lack of a third reliever (as of the draft, that player was Michael Bowden, projected to pitch just 27 innings according to the Community Playing Time forecasts) hurt his overall pitching points, but a lack of offense may ultimately drag down that good pitching.

- I was surprised to see my team doing as well as it did. My strategy was to build on positional scarcity early, but a run on the top pitchers forced me into pitching earlier than I would have liked. My offense is the only one to include two players (Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera, my first- and second-round selections respectively) to project over 1000 points, but it is otherwise unimpressive. The pitching staff includes guys who will get innings and not much else along with a mediocre relief crew. To win it, I think I'll have to pull a deal off for some relief at some point.

Please share your thoughts on the teams and rosters you saw and what you guys think the league players did right or wrong in the draft. I'm interested in hearing what the players thought as well. I'll be keeping BtB up to date on the league standings and happenings monthly.

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