Josh Beckett: Doomed By The Cutter?

by Daniel Moroz on Apr 27, 2010 3:23 PM EDT

I was watching Baseball Tonight yesterday during the marathon Boston-Toronto game, and the hosts were opining on the causes for Josh Beckett's struggles so far in 2010* - notably in that 13-12 game, where he gave up 8 runs in just 3 innings pitched. Bobby Valentine suggested that Beckett has three quality pitches - a mid 90s fastball, a curve, and a change-up - but that he's fallen in love with a mediocre cutter and that's hurting him. Not one to take claims made by people on TV at face value, I thought I'd check it out.

* Beckett April 2010: 28.2 IP, 37 H, 24 R (23 ER), 4 HR, 13 BB, 20 K
Beckett April 2009: 28.2 IP, 36 H, 24 R (23 ER), 3 HR, 16 BB, 31 K

He's missing fewer bats this year, but that's otherwise extremely similar.

First off, has Beckett really abandoned his dominant stuff in favor of the cut fastball? No, not really. He's throwing the pitch about 8% of the time this year, compared to 5% of the time in 2009. That amounts to maybe 3 extra cutters a game - not exactly a smoking gun.

Secondly, the cutter isn't actually a bad offering for him (using GameDay's classifications here).

Run value per 100 thrown (from FanGraphs) '10: +5.80
Run value per 100 thrown (from FanGraphs) '09: +0.07

Whiff rate* '10: 17.4%
Whiff rate '09: 17.0%
RHP average '09: 16.7%

Swinging strike % '10: 12.1%
Swinging strike % '09: 10.1%
RHP average '09: 8.3%

SLG on ball in play '10: .000
SLG on ball in play '09: .563
RHP average '09: .486

* My convention is to use whiff rate as swings and misses over swings. I've seen it defined that way, as well as swings and misses over pitches thrown (which I'm referring to as swinging strike %). I feel that the former tells you more about the pitch and the latter more about the pitcher, but your mileage may vary.

That's right; the cutter that's supposedly causing all the trouble in 2010 hasn't resulted in a hit yet. He's missing bats with it at a decent clip, as he did last year. Looks like a fine addition to his repertoire.

The real change in approach for Beckett has been the increased use of the change-up, from just 2-3% of the time to 14% of the time. Additionally, it hasn't been a great pitch (-2.69 RV/100, below average 18.9% whiff rate, 11.6% swinging strike rate, .500 SLG on ball in play). Perhaps Bobby-V had the right idea, but identified the wrong pitch.

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Comments

The question on the change-up is...

Whether its use is improving the value of the other pitches (like the cutter). Sometimes it’s worth it to throw a bad pitch if the boost to other pitches offsets your losses on the bad pitch.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Apr 27, 2010 4:00 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, certainly

The increased change-up usage was just the really obvious difference from ‘09 to ’10 looking at his pitches. And since he was successful last year, it does seem like he needs to start throwing the change to make his other pitches better. Possible though – I just didn’t look at it, since the cutter was my main focus.

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies.

by Daniel Moroz on Apr 27, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Beckett's change has never been that good

His fastballs (2- and 4-seam) come in around 93-95 MPH and his change sits 88-90 MPH. That’s not a lot of speed separation between the two pitches. His curve is a slow curve, high 70s low 80s. In the past, his success has been tied to how well he threw the curve and 2-seamer. If he’s relying on his change more, he’s asking for trouble—especially if his fastball velocity isn’t what it was in the past.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Apr 27, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not the cutter. Can't be the cutter.

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by Sky Kalkman on Apr 27, 2010 5:10 PM EDT reply actions

Pitch sequence

Is a bigger problem in my opinion. In the start against the Jays for example, Beckett was facing Overbay with two runners on. His cutter was filthy and after throwing Overbay three straight fastballs down and away the cutter appeared to be the pitch to bust him back in with. Instead he threw him a fourth fastball down and away and he smoked it for a bases clearing double. I also think his release point and mechanics have been inconsistent from start to start. For example, tapping the ball in his glove during the wind up, then not doing it the next inning. Also things like his CBv changing drastically from pitch to pitch would also lead me to believe something mechanically is just off.

by Mike Ketchen on Apr 28, 2010 10:01 AM EDT reply actions