Smart People Don't Like The Howard Deal

by Satchel Price on Apr 26, 2010 5:28 PM EDT

Now, pretty much everyone in the baseball world has heard today's news out of Philadelphia. Ryan Howard signed a five-year, $125M extension with the Phillies that will keep him there through 2017, which will be his age 37 season.

Now, I was going to go through the many reasons why this was a silly move by Ruben Amaro and company, but I thought that it would just be easier to just let some other guys speak for me.

Such as..

If you read all of those, you'll notice a pattern: some really smart guys have a lot of smart reasons for why the Phillies shouldn't have made this deal.

But you know who had a really damn good day today? Mr. Casey Close, Howard's agent.

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Keith Law? Smart?

Wha……?

In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.

In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)

by Taskmaster on Apr 26, 2010 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

I can't tell if you're kidding

but Law’s one of my favorites.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 26, 2010 6:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He has grown on me

although I totally disagree with him on a lot of draft/prospects stuff

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by fetch9 on Apr 26, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

But I appreciate

that he almost always has legitimate evidence for his opinions. I think that he does a good job at what he does.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 26, 2010 7:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

It was literal.

I have a very low opinion of the guy personally.

In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)

by Taskmaster on Apr 26, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I find that very easy to believe.

And also very easy to disagree with.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 27, 2010 4:01 AM EDT up reply actions

You'll find a lot of CArdinals fans ain't too thrilled with the dude

by vivaelpujols on Apr 27, 2010 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

is it because they're stupid?

because Lincecum was/is better and had the better year.

by superk1ng on Apr 28, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions

No, that was a crapshoot in my view

but probably the way he screwed over Carpenter for Vazquez pissed me off.

In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)

by Taskmaster on Apr 28, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

He gave clear statistical reasons for his choice.

That doesn’t make it absolutely right, but it’s refreshing to hear someone explain their reasons, which in this case, were pretty legitimate.

by philadelphiacub on Apr 29, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

He used FanGraphs WAR...

by vivaelpujols on Apr 29, 2010 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions

It's more of how he has analysized the cardinasl in the past

He called them a bad team after they won the WS in 06.

by vivaelpujols on Apr 29, 2010 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Hey, Heyman likes it!

Oh…oh, I see…

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 26, 2010 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I lol'd.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 27, 2010 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, am I the only one who doesn't buy that this sets the new level for 1B contracts?

I think teams will balk at the idea of having this deal raise the bar. There’s just not that many teams that can afford to shell out 25 million annually, and with Gonzalez, Pujols, and Fielder all on the market at once, I just don’t see it being competitive enough.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 26, 2010 6:35 PM EDT reply actions

I think it depends

On the one hand, I don’t think it will affect the salaries guys get all that much; on the other hand, I think there’s no way in hell the Brewers extend Fielder anymore. Even if he can’t get Ryan Howard money, Boras will push for it and push for it and push for it, and with some justification, as Prince is undeniably worth more than Howard (but neither of them are worth $25 MM/yr.), and won’t settle until the last moment, possibly managing to extort it out of some team.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Apr 26, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

It is a good deal the next 3-4 years and questionable after

that….but he will probably be traded after that

by Alious on Apr 26, 2010 11:15 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's not terrible the next couple years.

I think good is a lot lower, even after you consider locking up the face of the franchise.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 27, 2010 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions

to somebody getting him for free while the Phillies are still paying?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Apr 28, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

You know what would be cooler?

Try to make a case for why the Phillies made the deal that didn’t include the suppisition that they were stupid…

by vivaelpujols on Apr 27, 2010 12:59 AM EDT reply actions

It's not definitely a stupid deal by the Phillies.

Just because a lot of smart people say something doesn’t make it so necessarily. It’s just that right now, this deal doesn’t look good.

And, it follows the pattern of giving big money to veterans, like Ibanez, Polanco and Moyer. It does keep him around, which is a good thing. But it’s a long deal and a ton of money for a guy his age with his skill set.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 27, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Hey, I know someone who made a case that doesn’t include the supposition that the Phillies are just stupid: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10677
I basically say it’s not a good deal, but it’s not the disaster that people are claiming.

This doesn’t follow the pattern of giving money to Ibanez, Polanco, and Moyer. It follows the pattern of re-signing their homegrown talent like Utley and Rollins— both of which deals were heavily critical. Ibanez and Polanco were veterans brought in from other organizations. Also, the hate on the Polanco contract is just stupid. An average player for $6MM/year is a great deal. The hate on both the Polanco and Howard deals is partly related to the fact that the mainstream media overrates their skill sets rather than the actual value of the deals.

The myth of these analyses you link above, as I discuss in the article, is the supposed comparison to inferior players who were in worse shape like Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder. Howard has more in common with players like Jim Thome and Fred McGriff than those guys, only he’s less likely to have back problems than Thome.

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh, I know that this is about retaining a homegrown guy.

But it’s similar to the deals I mentioned in that it shows a continued willingness from Amaro to give money to guys in their late 30’s. It’s just a really big amount of money for someone that’s already 30 years old, I didn’t think that he could get that much and I highly doubt that he’ll be worth that much. That being said, he could very well hold off decline and surprise people. It’s just not a good bet. The McGriff comparison is a really interesting one, too.

By the way, I’ve consistently said that I liked the Polanco deal, he’s a good player at $6M a year as you said. But $14M over 2 for Moyer and $31M over 3 for Ibanez? That’s a lot of money.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 27, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Ibanez pretty much earned 2/3 of his contract in the first year of the deal. Moyer’s deal was bad, but not debilitating.

McGriff is Howard’s #1 PECOTA comparable actually. Thome I think is the best comparison actually. They have very similar shapes and both have swings that produce only pulled ground balls but hit fly balls to all fields. Thome is the only other elite 1B power hitter (other than Adrian Gonzalez) who hits as many HR to the opposite field. The guys that declined early were pull-happy guys like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn.

As I wrote in the article, this deal comes down to inflation and aging. Teams to a really good job on average at only re-signing players who will age well (I have an article last month where I compared aging curves of re-signed players and players who signed with new teams). If there is closer to 10% inflation of salaries like the last economic recovery had, and Howard declines more gracefully and remains at least above average for most of the contract, it’ll be a good deal.

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Doesn't Thome have

far superior plate discipline than Howard? And isn’t that one of the skills that ages well?

by philadelphiacub on Apr 29, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I also think there's a difference between obviously wrong and horribly wrong.

It’s REALLY hard to see this deal as giving an advantage to the Phillies. But it’s not going to cripple them (on average.)

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by Sky Kalkman on Apr 27, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

If salaries inflate like they did during the last economic recovery, it’s going to give them an advantage. The Phillies have basically tied their fate to salary inflation with all of their long term deals. It’s a risky move. But being risky in baseball is good. A team that has a 50/50 shot of winning 91 or 71 games makes a lot more money on average than a team that wins 81 games for sure. Risk is good in baseball, and the Phillies are doubling down. It could be a disaster, but it could also be that the Phillies have a bunch of wins tied up below market value in 2012 and 2013.

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I think that's the whole thing here.

This is just a really big risk by Philadelphia. And as you said, that can often work out quite well. But if this team doesn’t age gracefully, as you put it, then things could get really, really ugly by 2012. I’m talking, like, Cubs-style ugly.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 27, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Yup. The Cubs invested their money in an economic expansion from 2007-2010 and on good aging curves for guys like Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Dempster, and Ted Lilly. Soriano, Lilly, and Fukudome were all from outside the organization, while Zambrano, Dempster, Ramirez, and Lee were all their own guys. The Cubs clearly bet wrong on the economy portion, and they clearly bet wrong on a few of those guys. The Phillies invested their money in an economic expansion from 2011-2013 and good aging curves for Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. They’ll probably throw Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth into that mix soon too, I’d bet.

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Ramirez was originally a Pirate

And Lee a Padre, I think, but came to the Cubs from FL

by philadelphiacub on Apr 29, 2010 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions

But that ignores the fact that $5M per win (or whatever) is still a bad deal, overall.

Free agents shouldn’t just be compared to each other, but everyone — and they’re really expensive compared to other options. Ideally free agents will fill a hole and at least have some position flexibility. Signing Howard long term takes $25M from potential other uses (perhaps some or all of which would have gone to free agents to plug holes), and blocks any no-field prospect in the system for an extra five years.

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by Sky Kalkman on Apr 27, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

It's much harder to develop prospects than resign stars

That’s why teams pay so much for free agents. It’s easy to say that teams should only go for undervalued deals, but the Phillies can afford to splurge on a reliable star.

by vivaelpujols on Apr 27, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, think of it as separate decisions. The Phillies make decisions about their investment in amateur talent, and that’s largely based on the repeated prisoner’s dilemma equilibrium that they are in within the NL East. They pick that spending level and it leads to a future decision about how much to spend on auction market talent. That’s based on the opportunity cost of other auction market talent, conditional on the selected price level.

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions