BtB Power Rankings: Week 3

Toprank-042110_medium

Allrank-042110_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders

American League: E=Yankees*, C=Twins*, W=Angels*, WC=Blue Jays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals, W=Padres*, WC=Giants*

This Week's Breakdown

First, a technical note: the reason that so many of the Team Performance Indices (TPI's) are pointing down is that I made several tweaks and adjustments (and one bug fix) that forced TPI to be very close to 0.500, as it should be.

In any case, let's turn our attention this week to the newest top-ranked team on the list, the Minnesota Twins.  The Twins already ranked fourth last week, and their continued excellence this past week pushed them to the top of the list--and by a significant margin (73 points!).  There's no reality vs. statistics disparity here, either: our component winning percentage (cW%) estimate of their performance thus far is almost exactly the same as their true winning percentage (W%): 0.708 cW% vs. 0.714 W%.

The Twins so far have been all about offense and fielding, with solid pitching thrown in for good measure.  They rank second in the AL in park-adjusted wOBA (0.350; MLB average OBP is just 0.327).  Naturally, leading the way are Joe Mauer (0.407 wOBA) and Justin Morneau (0.447 wOBA), with strong complementary performances from Michael Cuddyer (0.362), Orlando Hudson (0.357), and Denard Span (0.340).  These players have also combined to give the Twins the best-rated fielding in baseball so far at +17 runs.  

Pitching-wise, their staff ranks as 6th in xFIP (4.03) and 5th in FIP (3.84).  Carl Pavano (3.33 xFIP, despite the ERA) and Kevin Slowey (3.70 xFIP) are off to nice starts, and Francisco Liriano (4.09 xFIP) has been encouraging.  More impressive, however, have been the performances of the bullpen.  Seemingly spurred by the loss of Joe Nathan, four of their relievers have yet to allow a run, while new closer Jon Rauch sports a sparkly 1.50 ERA and 2.18 FIP (...and 4.46 xFIP).  

The Twins seemed to be the consensus favorite to win the AL Central, and they're off to a fine start.  We'll track their progress as the season continues on--but for now, the Twins reign as the best-performing team in baseball.

 

Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% LgAdj TPI
ARI 14 73 70 70 62 0.429 0.519 0.561 -2 0.535
ATL 13 65 58 58 59 0.615 0.555 0.489 -2 0.463
BAL 15 45 48 77 70 0.133 0.273 0.332 2 0.358
BOS 14 55 64 73 82 0.357 0.373 0.387 2 0.409
CHW 14 55 53 54 62 0.357 0.508 0.436 2 0.464
CHC 14 51 56 65 56 0.357 0.388 0.498 -2 0.470
CIN 14 62 51 75 68 0.429 0.406 0.364 -2 0.338
CLE 13 47 43 56 60 0.462 0.420 0.350 2 0.377
COL 14 65 64 53 65 0.500 0.593 0.494 -2 0.470
DET 14 62 74 68 74 0.500 0.457 0.501 2 0.523
FLA 14 74 70 70 74 0.571 0.527 0.469 -2 0.446
HOU 13 35 22 63 59 0.308 0.265 0.149 -2 0.128
KCR 14 65 74 81 79 0.357 0.397 0.467 2 0.490
LAD 13 81 86 84 72 0.462 0.487 0.589 -2 0.568
LAA 15 61 64 75 62 0.533 0.403 0.509 2 0.537
MIL 13 70 70 77 62 0.462 0.452 0.562 -2 0.538
MIN 14 74 77 48 48 0.714 0.691 0.708 2 0.731
NYY 13 77 84 47 62 0.769 0.715 0.637 2 0.657
NYM 14 59 58 51 72 0.429 0.567 0.404 -2 0.381
OAK 15 66 60 55 60 0.600 0.584 0.503 2 0.531
PHI 13 79 78 51 53 0.615 0.695 0.680 -2 0.658
PIT 13 55 56 84 64 0.538 0.300 0.430 -2 0.404
SDP 14 65 66 56 47 0.571 0.567 0.648 -2 0.621
SEA 15 57 56 54 67 0.533 0.524 0.422 2 0.449
SFG 14 71 71 45 57 0.571 0.698 0.602 -2 0.577
STL 14 68 69 51 56 0.643 0.634 0.598 -2 0.572
TBR 14 72 62 53 60 0.714 0.642 0.516 2 0.543
TEX 13 51 49 52 64 0.385 0.491 0.379 2 0.404
TOR 15 69 69 62 58 0.600 0.550 0.579 2 0.605
WSN 14 68 74 88 75 0.500 0.375 0.497 -2 0.473

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Fld Catch BABIP
ARI 73 70 0.338 0.346 0.442 70 0 5 70 62 5.04 4.97 4.32 64 2 -2 0.313
ATL 65 58 0.320 0.338 0.369 58 0 1 58 59 3.84 3.91 4.04 57 -4 2 0.273
BAL 45 48 0.290 0.286 0.365 48 0 -7 77 70 4.51 3.79 4.26 65 -7 2 0.341
BOS 55 64 0.327 0.323 0.438 64 0 -7 73 82 4.68 4.90 5.02 76 -8 -5 0.285
CHW 55 53 0.308 0.308 0.389 53 0 -7 54 62 3.69 3.44 3.98 60 2 1 0.292
CHC 51 56 0.315 0.317 0.397 56 0 -6 65 56 4.39 3.67 3.88 55 -1 2 0.317
CIN 62 51 0.302 0.300 0.397 51 0 11 75 68 5.53 4.62 4.52 67 4 0 0.315
CLE 47 43 0.294 0.303 0.338 43 0 10 56 60 3.58 4.52 4.80 66 10 -1 0.261
COL 65 64 0.326 0.333 0.451 64 0 -14 53 65 3.81 3.91 4.27 64 -2 0 0.302
DET 62 74 0.342 0.368 0.405 74 0 8 68 74 4.39 4.25 4.66 68 -11 -2 0.312
FLA 74 70 0.335 0.333 0.419 70 0 6 70 74 4.39 4.16 4.53 68 -8 0 0.288
HOU 35 22 0.248 0.249 0.299 22 0 6 63 59 4.62 3.69 4.03 55 -3 1 0.330
KCR 65 74 0.348 0.348 0.442 74 0 2 81 79 5.63 5.18 5.15 75 -7 0 0.320
LAD 81 86 0.372 0.377 0.473 86 0 2 84 72 5.48 4.68 4.60 64 -4 -2 0.318
LAA 61 64 0.322 0.321 0.404 64 0 -5 75 62 4.53 4.66 3.99 63 4 0 0.288
MIL 70 70 0.349 0.347 0.431 70 0 5 77 62 5.65 4.80 4.09 55 -7 -1 0.329
MIN 74 77 0.350 0.365 0.428 77 0 0 48 48 3.43 3.84 4.03 60 14 3 0.287
NYY 77 84 0.380 0.384 0.469 84 0 4 47 62 3.58 3.69 4.02 54 -8 -2 0.286
NYM 59 58 0.308 0.324 0.348 58 0 -10 51 72 3.27 3.98 4.55 73 -3 2 0.287
OAK 66 60 0.316 0.323 0.369 60 0 6 55 60 3.17 3.55 3.93 62 5 1 0.283
PHI 79 78 0.360 0.370 0.474 78 0 2 51 53 3.88 3.96 3.78 52 1 1 0.297
PIT 55 56 0.319 0.326 0.369 56 0 20 84 64 6.39 5.01 4.72 64 0 -1 0.306
SDP 65 66 0.331 0.325 0.382 66 0 5 56 47 3.02 3.79 3.66 55 3 2 0.272
SEA 57 56 0.309 0.327 0.350 56 0 5 54 67 3.41 4.00 4.69 73 12 -2 0.280
SFG 71 71 0.340 0.346 0.433 71 0 -9 45 57 2.98 3.44 3.93 59 0 1 0.268
STL 68 69 0.330 0.327 0.420 69 0 0 51 56 2.87 3.49 3.95 63 5 3 0.273
TBR 72 62 0.324 0.311 0.417 62 0 14 53 60 3.56 4.72 4.59 70 11 0 0.258
TEX 51 49 0.308 0.311 0.369 49 0 6 52 64 3.71 4.80 4.83 64 -1 -1 0.294
TOR 69 69 0.331 0.308 0.452 69 0 4 62 58 3.83 3.97 3.93 63 11 -1 0.268
WSN 68 74 0.349 0.361 0.431 74 0 13 88 75 6.29 5.38 5.16 75 -3 0 0.307

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, and E's.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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