BtB Power Rankings: Week 3

by JinAZ on Apr 21, 2010 10:15 PM EDT in Power Rankings

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders

American League: E=Yankees*, C=Twins*, W=Angels*, WC=Blue Jays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals, W=Padres*, WC=Giants*

This Week's Breakdown

First, a technical note: the reason that so many of the Team Performance Indices (TPI's) are pointing down is that I made several tweaks and adjustments (and one bug fix) that forced TPI to be very close to 0.500, as it should be.

In any case, let's turn our attention this week to the newest top-ranked team on the list, the Minnesota Twins. The Twins already ranked fourth last week, and their continued excellence this past week pushed them to the top of the list--and by a significant margin (73 points!). There's no reality vs. statistics disparity here, either: our component winning percentage (cW%) estimate of their performance thus far is almost exactly the same as their true winning percentage (W%): 0.708 cW% vs. 0.714 W%.

The Twins so far have been all about offense and fielding, with solid pitching thrown in for good measure. They rank second in the AL in park-adjusted wOBA (0.350; MLB average OBP is just 0.327). Naturally, leading the way are Joe Mauer (0.407 wOBA) and Justin Morneau (0.447 wOBA), with strong complementary performances from Michael Cuddyer (0.362), Orlando Hudson (0.357), and Denard Span (0.340). These players have also combined to give the Twins the best-rated fielding in baseball so far at +17 runs.

Pitching-wise, their staff ranks as 6th in xFIP (4.03) and 5th in FIP (3.84). Carl Pavano (3.33 xFIP, despite the ERA) and Kevin Slowey (3.70 xFIP) are off to nice starts, and Francisco Liriano (4.09 xFIP) has been encouraging. More impressive, however, have been the performances of the bullpen. Seemingly spurred by the loss of Joe Nathan, four of their relievers have yet to allow a run, while new closer Jon Rauch sports a sparkly 1.50 ERA and 2.18 FIP (...and 4.46 xFIP).

The Twins seemed to be the consensus favorite to win the AL Central, and they're off to a fine start. We'll track their progress as the season continues on--but for now, the Twins reign as the best-performing team in baseball.

Runs to Wins

Team	G	RS	eRS	RA	eRA	W%	pW%	cW%	LgAdj	TPI
ARI	14	73	70	70	62	0.429	0.519	0.561	-2	0.535
ATL	13	65	58	58	59	0.615	0.555	0.489	-2	0.463
BAL	15	45	48	77	70	0.133	0.273	0.332	2	0.358
BOS	14	55	64	73	82	0.357	0.373	0.387	2	0.409
CHW	14	55	53	54	62	0.357	0.508	0.436	2	0.464
CHC	14	51	56	65	56	0.357	0.388	0.498	-2	0.470
CIN	14	62	51	75	68	0.429	0.406	0.364	-2	0.338
CLE	13	47	43	56	60	0.462	0.420	0.350	2	0.377
COL	14	65	64	53	65	0.500	0.593	0.494	-2	0.470
DET	14	62	74	68	74	0.500	0.457	0.501	2	0.523
FLA	14	74	70	70	74	0.571	0.527	0.469	-2	0.446
HOU	13	35	22	63	59	0.308	0.265	0.149	-2	0.128
KCR	14	65	74	81	79	0.357	0.397	0.467	2	0.490
LAD	13	81	86	84	72	0.462	0.487	0.589	-2	0.568
LAA	15	61	64	75	62	0.533	0.403	0.509	2	0.537
MIL	13	70	70	77	62	0.462	0.452	0.562	-2	0.538
MIN	14	74	77	48	48	0.714	0.691	0.708	2	0.731
NYY	13	77	84	47	62	0.769	0.715	0.637	2	0.657
NYM	14	59	58	51	72	0.429	0.567	0.404	-2	0.381
OAK	15	66	60	55	60	0.600	0.584	0.503	2	0.531
PHI	13	79	78	51	53	0.615	0.695	0.680	-2	0.658
PIT	13	55	56	84	64	0.538	0.300	0.430	-2	0.404
SDP	14	65	66	56	47	0.571	0.567	0.648	-2	0.621
SEA	15	57	56	54	67	0.533	0.524	0.422	2	0.449
SFG	14	71	71	45	57	0.571	0.698	0.602	-2	0.577
STL	14	68	69	51	56	0.643	0.634	0.598	-2	0.572
TBR	14	72	62	53	60	0.714	0.642	0.516	2	0.543
TEX	13	51	49	52	64	0.385	0.491	0.379	2	0.404
TOR	15	69	69	62	58	0.600	0.550	0.579	2	0.605
WSN	14	68	74	88	75	0.500	0.375	0.497	-2	0.473

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team	RS	eRS	wOBA	OBP	SLG	wRC	EqBRR	Clutch	RA	eRA	ERA	FIP	xFIP	xFIPrns	Fld	Catch	BABIP
ARI	73	70	0.338	0.346	0.442	70	0	5	70	62	5.04	4.97	4.32	64	2	-2	0.313
ATL	65	58	0.320	0.338	0.369	58	0	1	58	59	3.84	3.91	4.04	57	-4	2	0.273
BAL	45	48	0.290	0.286	0.365	48	0	-7	77	70	4.51	3.79	4.26	65	-7	2	0.341
BOS	55	64	0.327	0.323	0.438	64	0	-7	73	82	4.68	4.90	5.02	76	-8	-5	0.285
CHW	55	53	0.308	0.308	0.389	53	0	-7	54	62	3.69	3.44	3.98	60	2	1	0.292
CHC	51	56	0.315	0.317	0.397	56	0	-6	65	56	4.39	3.67	3.88	55	-1	2	0.317
CIN	62	51	0.302	0.300	0.397	51	0	11	75	68	5.53	4.62	4.52	67	4	0	0.315
CLE	47	43	0.294	0.303	0.338	43	0	10	56	60	3.58	4.52	4.80	66	10	-1	0.261
COL	65	64	0.326	0.333	0.451	64	0	-14	53	65	3.81	3.91	4.27	64	-2	0	0.302
DET	62	74	0.342	0.368	0.405	74	0	8	68	74	4.39	4.25	4.66	68	-11	-2	0.312
FLA	74	70	0.335	0.333	0.419	70	0	6	70	74	4.39	4.16	4.53	68	-8	0	0.288
HOU	35	22	0.248	0.249	0.299	22	0	6	63	59	4.62	3.69	4.03	55	-3	1	0.330
KCR	65	74	0.348	0.348	0.442	74	0	2	81	79	5.63	5.18	5.15	75	-7	0	0.320
LAD	81	86	0.372	0.377	0.473	86	0	2	84	72	5.48	4.68	4.60	64	-4	-2	0.318
LAA	61	64	0.322	0.321	0.404	64	0	-5	75	62	4.53	4.66	3.99	63	4	0	0.288
MIL	70	70	0.349	0.347	0.431	70	0	5	77	62	5.65	4.80	4.09	55	-7	-1	0.329
MIN	74	77	0.350	0.365	0.428	77	0	0	48	48	3.43	3.84	4.03	60	14	3	0.287
NYY	77	84	0.380	0.384	0.469	84	0	4	47	62	3.58	3.69	4.02	54	-8	-2	0.286
NYM	59	58	0.308	0.324	0.348	58	0	-10	51	72	3.27	3.98	4.55	73	-3	2	0.287
OAK	66	60	0.316	0.323	0.369	60	0	6	55	60	3.17	3.55	3.93	62	5	1	0.283
PHI	79	78	0.360	0.370	0.474	78	0	2	51	53	3.88	3.96	3.78	52	1	1	0.297
PIT	55	56	0.319	0.326	0.369	56	0	20	84	64	6.39	5.01	4.72	64	0	-1	0.306
SDP	65	66	0.331	0.325	0.382	66	0	5	56	47	3.02	3.79	3.66	55	3	2	0.272
SEA	57	56	0.309	0.327	0.350	56	0	5	54	67	3.41	4.00	4.69	73	12	-2	0.280
SFG	71	71	0.340	0.346	0.433	71	0	-9	45	57	2.98	3.44	3.93	59	0	1	0.268
STL	68	69	0.330	0.327	0.420	69	0	0	51	56	2.87	3.49	3.95	63	5	3	0.273
TBR	72	62	0.324	0.311	0.417	62	0	14	53	60	3.56	4.72	4.59	70	11	0	0.258
TEX	51	49	0.308	0.311	0.369	49	0	6	52	64	3.71	4.80	4.83	64	-1	-1	0.294
TOR	69	69	0.331	0.308	0.452	69	0	4	62	58	3.83	3.97	3.93	63	11	-1	0.268
WSN	68	74	0.349	0.361	0.431	74	0	13	88	75	6.29	5.38	5.16	75	-3	0	0.307

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, and E's. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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Comments

One thing that's interesting to watch, is Target Field

It might be affecting the fielding numbers, as there obviously are no park factors built in at this point.

Also, xFIP won’t be affected by the HR/FB factor of a park, while wOBA will. I’m assuming this is adjusted for for other teams, but obviously not for games at Target field. My eyes are telling me that it’s played like a pitcher’s park thus far, so the Twins offense might be even better than it appears.

I really doubt that the defense is the best in the league though. I’m guessing they’ll end up above average, something like 10th best when it’s all said and done. Unless of course they continue to only commit one error every three weeks.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 21, 2010 11:37 PM EDT reply actions

Something I just saw when looking at the defensive numbers on fangraphs

The twins have just the 1 error, yet only have 2.0 “error runs”. The mets have 9 errors, yet have 2.3.

Anyone have an idea of why that would be?

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 21, 2010 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Not off hand. I'll see if I can figure it out when I get a sec.

Maybe the errors are on plays that aren’t going into the error runs estimates?

And true on park factors. There were similar issues with the Yankees and Mets last year. Not much I can do about it until we get data.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Apr 22, 2010 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Jays

still at #5. It will be fun to chart their slide down the chart this season.

by handknit on Apr 22, 2010 1:57 AM EDT reply actions

Why would that be fun?

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Apr 22, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I like that 25 of the teams saw their TPI go down

And how about that jump by Washington?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 22, 2010 9:20 AM EDT reply actions

The drop of most teams was because I'm a dumb-bottom

Made several tweaks to force xFIP=ERA at the league level, make average DRS=0, etc. But the biggest adjustment was that I was using xFIP to estimate earned runs instead of runs. Whoops. Fixed now, though…
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Apr 22, 2010 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions

What a ridiculous drop from the Rockies

For at team that’s fourth in run differential in the NL and 3rd in MLB in Pitcher WAR, I wouldn’t suspect them to fall so much

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 22, 2010 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

I'm estimating COL to allow 12 more runs than they actually have

And at this point in the season, that’s huge. xFIP is higher than ERA, though not ridiculously so (0.4 runs or so). Maybe the fielding stats are missing so far on their defense?
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Apr 22, 2010 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions