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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Are the Mets Rushing Another Prospect?

The New York Mets have long had a reputation for rushing their very best prospects. Both Jose Reyes and Fernando Martinez made it to the majors before they were even allowed to have a beer legally, and while most of their prospects don't make it quite that fast, the Mets have rarely gone one level at a time with their most talented youngsters.

Things have changed little this season, as the team has continued to call up its best prospects at a borderline alarming rate. It started with the decision to place the team's best pitching prospect, 20-year-old right-hander Jenrry Mejia, in the big league club's bullpen in spite of the fact that it's just his third season professionally and he has just 44 innings of experience above Single-A. By most accounts, Mejia has the makings of an ace with the proper development. Keith Law rated him as the game's No. 23 prospect, saying of him, "If the Mets slow him down a little and let him spend all of 2010 (and maybe some of 2011) in the minors to improve his command and the consistency of his changeup and curve, they have a chance for a No. 1 or No. 2 starter."

Well, to put things simply, not only did the Mets not slow Mejia's progession through the minors, they actually managed to speed it up. We've seen a lot of ink (pixels?) spilled over this already, but it can't really be stressed enough: you just don't call up a potential ace to become a relief pitcher on a fringe contender when he still needs to work on his command and offspeed stuff. Mejia can definitely help the Mets this year as a reliever, but not nearly as much as he could help them in the future as a starter.

Considering the Mets' rough start, they're already four games back of Philadelphia and in last place, you'd think that they'd stop messing with the development of their most talented young players. But the word going around today is that with the designation of first baseman Mike Jacobs for assignment, the Mets are going to call up Ike Davis, the team's top hitting prospect, to take over at first base with the big league team some time in the next week.

Star-divide

Davis, 23, is currently in Triple-A after a breakout season in Double-A last year, ranks No. 64 on Law's top 100 list. Law praised Davis for his plus raw power and patient approach against right-handed pitching, but acknowledged that Davis still has a lot of flaws before being ready to play in the majors. In late January, Law said of Davis, "A full year in Double-A/Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and on improving his approach against left-handers is probably critical for his future as an everyday player, but he has a chance to be an above-average one if he can shed the "platoon player" tag with more reps."

Last season, Davis posted a 1.000 OPS against RHP compared to a .672 mark against LHP, with signficantly less power and significantly higher strikeout numbers against the latter group. Even with some serious improvement over the winter, it's tough to believe that Davis is ready to play full-time in the majors, and it's highly unlikely that he'll ever figure out lefties without more experience in the minor leagues. Yeah, Davis is probably better than Jacobs or Daniel Murphy right now, but once again we this team retarding the development of a potential star-quality player.

Davis had a really great year split between Single-A and Double-A last season, and the impression that he gave this spring in big league camp was nothing short of impressive. But this is a first base prospect with 669 professional at-bats under his belt and some very legitimate concerns about his ability to hit offspeed stuff and left-handed pitching. He seems highly likely to be New York's first baseman of the future, but there's a good chance that he'll never be able to make the proper adjustments against left-handed pitchers and/or pitchers with great offspeed stuff, seriously limiting his potential value to the club.

In the past, we've seen desperate front office regimes call up their team's best young players in final attempts to revive their ailing franchises, and these maneuvers look no different. Davis might actually be New York's best internal option at first base, which makes the move at least somewhat defensible (unlike the Mejia ordeal), but this reflects a startling pattern of forcing relatively unprepared prospects into big league duty prematurely. For a team that essentially refuses to go over slot in the draft, it certainly compounds the problem when you don't let the guys that you do draft develop properly. Two of the biggest problems with this team are the lack of starting pitching and the overall lack of depth in the organization, and moves like this are a big part of the reason why.

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The Real Issue

Is the one place the Mets have good depth is at 1b. Davis might be their best option, but they are starting his arb clock early, and before he is really ready to play every dau for no reason. They could have easily called up Chris Carter, who also had a great Spring or even Nick Evans who is mashing at AA again (the only reason he is at AA is because Carter and Davis are both in Buffalo). This is another ‘win now’ move by a team that really isn’t built to win now.

by Jeffrey Paternostro on Apr 19, 2010 2:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, it's true

but if the Mets want to contend this year, it’s not unreasonable to believe that Davis is the best 1B option in the entire organization. Now, that probably shouldn’t be the case in the first place, and it’s more of a reflection on the lack of quality 1B options in their system rather than Davis being so brilliant.

I just think that by calling up Davis now, when he’s still so flawed as a hitter, makes it less likely that he puts it all together and becomes an above-average player.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 19, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

ehhh

if they want to contend, they also need to figure out a catcher, 2-3 SP, 3-4 RP, prey that Beltran return healthy soon, and hope nothing else goes wrong.

by RollingWave on Apr 20, 2010 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can't really compare Davis with Meijia

Davis is 23, that’s not too young or too raw to start your major league career. The fact is, almost all lefty power hitters struggle against lefthanded pitching when they start out. They either figure it out or they don’t. I don’t think being in the minors or majors would change that. And the Mets are going to start him vs. lefties. He’s played 3 years of college ball in the Pac 10, 2 years in the minors, plus he excelled in the Arizona fall league and in Spring training. And he made a nice adjustment off of a lefty with a very good curve ball in Marshall last night. All signs point to Davis being ready to handle this. Meijia, on the other hand, should be sent down in order to be a starter again, no doubt about it.

by David G on Apr 20, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions  

That hit off Marshall impressed me.

Obviously, Davis could totally prove me wrong and become serviceable against lefties this year, but his track record against them just isn’t good. And the issues with offspeed stuff could become more prominent, leading to some pretty high strikeout numbers.

It just seems odd that they would prematurely call him up to play first base full-time expecting him to be an upgrade, when he’s almost certainly going to be one of the team’s worst hitters against LHP. And putting him in a platoon would prevent him from adjusting against them, so it makes sense that he’d play against lefties. It’s just that I think that it should happen in Triple-A rather than the majors, where the team is clearly trying to win.

This certainly isn’t a mistake on the level of the Mejia call-up, something that pretty much nobody could argue, but I just wonder if they’re screwing up his development in order to get what’s likely to be an average at best bat into the lineup this year.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 20, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think it has as much to do with WHEN they are called up

b/c I just dont think their top prospects are that great to begin with

by Alious on Apr 20, 2010 4:41 PM EDT reply actions  

But a huge part of the problem with New York lately

has been an inefficient player development system. They have some guys with huge talent, like Martinez, Mejia, Flores, Urbina, Holt, Davis, Havens, Allen and Marte, but look at their roster. They have just a couple homegrown players, most of whom came from the previous front office regime.

The Mets could, and probably should, be a developmental powerhouse like Boston, but they’re unwilling to spend on the draft and have struggled to properly develop their most talented youngsters. From what we’ve seen so far this season, they’ve done little to alter that.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Apr 21, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

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