There Aren't Any Great Pitchers Anymore
by Daniel Moroz on Apr 12, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
in History & Hall of Fame
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PrintI was talking to a friend of mine early last week about active potential Hall of Famers - notably Phillies players such as Chase Utley and Roy Halladay - when something struck me. Going through all the guys in the majors who are locks or near locks to get in (Pujols, Griffey, Rivera, Jeter, Chipper, Pudge Rodriguez, Hoffman, A-Rod/Manny if the steroids thing doesn't hold them back, Ichiro, Thome, Sheffield, Vladdy, Rolen, Andruw Jones, Helton), there weren't any starting pitcher in the list. Sure there are a lot of great starters in the game today, but nobody* with a body of work so good that it seemed they had already punched their ticket to Cooperstown (reasonably speaking). I couldn't remember a time when that was the case.
And apparently neither could Tim Kurkjian over at ESPN, who posted an article on the exact same point - minus advanced stats, plus player quotes and story line - on Friday. I guess you could say that I'm the Isaac Newton to Kukrjian's Gottfried Leibniz. (Yeah, I went there - although to be honest, I'm a Leibniz fan myself sans the monads.)
* Assuming Pedro Martinez doesn't pitch at some point.
First, some of the active candidates. Current leaders in Wins, with seasonal age in parentheses:
Jamie Moyer (47) - 258
Andy Pettitte (38) - 229
Tim Wakefield (43) - 189
Livan Hernandez (35) - 156
Kevin Millwood (35) - 155
Roy Halladay (33) - 149
Tim Hudson (34) - 148
Derek Lowe (37) - 142
Javier Vazquez (34) - 142
Roy Oswalt (32) - 137
Mark Buehrle (31) - 136
CC Sabathia (29) - 136
Jeff Suppan (35) - 135
Barry Zito (32) - 134
Johan Santana (31) - 123
300 wins is probably out of the question for anyone here, but even 250 might be a stretch (not including Moyer). Pettitte said he may retire after this season, though it's possible the Yankees provide him with enough run support to win 21 games. Wakefield has a shot at 200, but unless he's still floating 'em up there at age 50, 250 isn't happening. Livan, Millwood, and - further down - Suppan are way too fair into their declines to get to 200. Doc can get to 250 with 20-21 win seasons through age 38 or 15 win seasons through 40. Lefties Mark Buehrle and CC Sabathia have a good base from which to start and are pretty young/durable - I suppose those would be the two I'd bet on to reach 250 wins.
Wins, of course, aren't a great way to judge pitchers. Here are the active WAR leaders, from Rally's invaluable database:
Mariano Rivera (40) - 49.9
(I know Mo isn't a starter, but he leads all active pitchers. How about that?)
Roy Halladay (33) - 47.4
Jamie Moyer (47) - 47.4
Andy Pettitte (38) - 47.1
Johan Santana (31) - 42.1
Tim Hudson (34) - 40.9
Roy Oswalt (32) - 39.5
Mark Buehrle (31) - 39.4
CC Sabathia (29) - 37.3
Javier Vazquez (34) - 37.2
Tim Wakefield (43) - 33.5
Barry Zito (32) - 31.7
Trevor Hoffman (42) - 31.5
Derek Lowe (37) - 30.2
Brandon Webb (31) - 29.2
Most of the same names, if not in the same order. I thought it might be interesting to take each pitcher's 2010 CHONE projection, work in a half win yearly decline through age 35 and a .75 win decline thereafter (otherwise guys would be pitching until their mid 40s), and see where each starting pitcher might end up*.
* For entertainment purposes only.
CC Sabathia (above 0 WAR through age 38) - 79.9
Roy Halladay (41) - 78.8
Javier Vazquez (40) - 67.0
Andy Pettitte (42) - 56.6
Mark Buehrle (37) - 55.3
Johan Santana (36) - 52.6
Roy Oswalt (37) - 52.2
Jamie Moyer (48) - 48.5
Tim Hudson (37) - 46.1
Brandon Webb (36) - 37.9
Derek Lowe (40) - 36.1
Tim Wakefield (44) - 35.2
Barry Zito (35) - 35.1
CC and Doc both look solid, but that's about it. The mid 50s is Chuck Finley/Bret Saberhagen territory (plus some HOFamers like Red Faber). Javy probably wouldn't have a good chance due to public perception, but he's a pretty darn effective pitcher. Anyway, back to the original issue; how long has it been since the no starter in baseball had a really strong body of work behind him (as proxy for Hall of Fame potential).
Looking at it by season, here's a graph of the highest career WAR by a (starting) pitcher coming into a given year in which they pitched at some point. The active career WAR leader, if you will.
You can see Roy Halladay is the last point to the right at 47.4. The only time - since 1900 (and even going back to 1884) - that there's been a season without such an established pitcher was 1944. That was right after Carl Hubbel retired and Red Ruffin wasn't in the league at the time - and Indians right-hander Mel Harder was king of the mountain with his 42.1 career WAR. Harder was 34 that year, well away from his peak seasons, and would retire at 37 with 42.5 WAR. If you exclude the WWII years - with many players serving in the armed forces and thus not being eligible here - then at no point in history* has there been a season like the 2010 one. By the way, if you want to use Mo's 49.9 WAR then the point still stands.
* Also excluding the very early years where it obviously wasn't possible for a player to have built up a career since the league just started.
The list of starting pitchers with the highest career WAR going into the given seasons:
2010: Roy Halladay
2009: Randy Johnson
2008: Greg Maddux
2007-1994: Roger Clemens
1993: Nolan Ryan
1992: Bert Blyleven
1991: Nolan Ryan (Bly didn't pitch)
1990-1988: Bert Blyleven
1987: Phil Niekro
1986-1984: Tom Seaver
1983-1976: Gaylord Perry
1975-1970: Bob Gibson
1969-1967: Don Drysdale
1966: Robin Roberts
1965-1957: Warren Spahn
1956-1948: Bob Feller
1947: Red Ruffin
1946: Ted Lyons (He hadn't pitched since '42)
1945: Red Ruffin
1944: Mel Harder
1943-1942: Carl Hubbel
1941-1934: Lefty Grove
1933-1931: Dazzy Vance
1930-1928: Pete Alexander
1927-1917: Walter Johnson
1916-1912: Christy Mathewson
1911-1902: Cy Young
1901-1896: Kid Nichols
Every single person on that list is either in the Hall of Fame, or will be (fingers crossed for Bly) - except for Mel Harder and, of course, possibly Roy Halladay.
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Interesting piece — and if it’s of any interest, I clicked through to here from Halladay’s Fangraphs page, so it seems the partnership is already paying dividends, huh?
As a more general point, I wonder how HOF voters will treat pitchers in the steroid era and beyond. With wins being a terrible assessment tool, will there be an influx of enough saber- types to say, “Hey, Roy Halladay only racked up 190 wins, but he was the best pitcher in baseball for 5 years, so he should get in”? It’s certainly an open question.
And here I would have thought
that both Holliday and Santana would have been considered at least near-locks. Santana because of his time with the Twins. As long as he can avoid totally crashing with the Mets he’s probably in. Santana at least has two Cy Young awards and was a major part of the Twins sustained success. Unfortunately Santana has been overshadowed bythe Met’s organizational problems since he came over
When Holliday was traded there seemed to be vibes that he was the best pitcher in baseball hence the trading of Cliff Lee. While he’s only won one Cy Young he’s come fairly close. If he had played for a different team besides the Blue Jays he would probably be a lock. I think if either had played for a large-market team they would be true locks.
"I'm a Leibniz fan myself sans the monads."
but without the monads, what is there?? one-hit wonder if there ever was one.
oh. right. i forgot:
by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 12, 2010 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Mariano Rivera
Is a lock for HOF. We’ve just witnessed the retirements of a great generation of HOF pitchers – Roger, Randy, the Brave’s trio, Mussina, Schilling. I guess Pedro isn’t retired yet, but he’s not currently active either.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
Rivera
is the active leader in career WAR at 50. Probably the first time in MLB history you could say that about a reliever, but that’s just a guess.
Then
47 Halladay, Moyer, Pettite
42 Santana
41 Hudson
Sabathia, Buehrle, Oswalt not too far behind. Halladay will probably pass Mo later this year even if the great one racks up another 45 saves on a 2.00 ERA, just because a great starter can pile up a lot more WAR in a season.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
Good read.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 12, 2010 12:58 PM EDT reply actions
Not that this is necessarily easily accessible
But what’s the average WAR for pitchers who have been voted into the Hall? It’s probably more reliable to exclude those who made it in by Veteran’s Committee, but that probably makes it a big job to figure out.
I don’t know if this site is reliable, but if it is, then it seems like 80 WAR gets them pretty close to ‘lock’ status (Dutchmen excluded).
Fun fact from this: Old Hoss Radbourne put up a higher WAR in two seasons than all but 10 active pitchers have put up in their entire careers.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Also
It looks like Mussina might be worthy of more consideration than I was originally giving him.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Average HOF Pitcher
Comes in at about 63 WAR. That’s everybody though.
Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies.
by Daniel Moroz on Apr 13, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's somewhat unlikely that Santana
will only record ~10 WAR over the rest of his career. However, even if he falls short of 60 WAR, I think he’s in good shape, especially compared to Sabathia or Vasquez*, who have a lower peak. Due to that high peak, I think he’d be regarded more like Koufax or Three Finger Brown than Larry Jackson or Frank Tanana.
*Also, it seems somewhat improbable that Vasquez will be three times as valuable as Santana from now until the end of their careers, especially considering the age and workload differences.
CHONE
Which was what my 2010 base was, had Santana at 3 WAR and Vazquez at 4.7. Once you start decreasing from there, Javy’s totals grow faster and for longer. As I said, it wasn’t a serious projection.
Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies.
by Daniel Moroz on Apr 12, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, I understand the methodology
just adding my two cents about why Santana has a better shot than the off the cuff projection forecasted :)
by Josh Deletchi on Apr 13, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, OK
I don’t really disgree with your assessment either. Santana should be in good shape.
Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies.
by Daniel Moroz on Apr 13, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
You have to remember, most HOF voters are still luddites
I wrote something for DugoutCentral last year:
http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/223140
The “great” pitchers (or at least the ones that get into the Hall) are still defined by the wins they amass — so we’re looking at Santana, Oswalt, Sabathia, and probably Halliday. Not that they’re the best-of-the-best, mind you, but they appear to be the most likely to earn induction. Maybe Mike Mussina will buck the trend!
I'm guessing it's just way too early to project for guys like
Lincecum, Greinke, Hernandez, et al?
If Lincecum keeps up this trend of winning the Cy Young two out of every three years and pitches until he’s 40, he’s going to end up with 12 or 13 of them.
Okay, so that’s pretty unlikely. But if he keeps consistently putting up around 6-8 WAR seasons, he’s going to start shooting up the active career leaders board. The real concern for me is still injury, especially considering that he’s only 25 and has already pitched close to 600 innings. I’d have to think he’d eventually have a shot at Cooperstown if he stays healthy though.
by Soria's Unibrow on Apr 13, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions
I have a hard time believing that Lincecum's arm will hold up
Smaller guys that throw that hard seem to burn out really fast.
I think Halladay and Sabathia have a decent shot for that reason;
both are tall, workhorse type pitchers whose big frames help them reach high
pitch velocities without a terrible toll on their bodies.
If Lincecum keeps throwing 220+ innings a year he’ll be done in less than 5 seasons
and will only get close to 120 wins.
You almost feel kinda back for Greinke having to play for KC cause you know he
just won’t get as many wins as Sabathia or Halladay now that they are on good teams.
You gotta think Moyer and Pettitte should get in, I think Livan Hernandez has too many losses to even have a shot. It’s hard to imagine him getting in if he finishes his career so close to 0.500. I think Halladay is a lock since is sort of a “throwback” type pitcher. Lots of wins per start, lots of complete games and a true workhorse/ace pitcher for almost a decade.
Like mentioned above, the voters are old-timers and still count wins and losses with more importance than advanced stats. Clearly the game is much different for pitchers today than it used to be and one can only hope the voters change the way they decide how starters can get in.
by riversformvp on Apr 13, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, it doesn’t seem like that unusual a circumstance to me. The last time it happened? The last time the last of the old guard of stars retired (which is clearly what all those major dips in the WAR line represent).
So the last time that happened could be marked by Nolan Ryan’s retirement following the 1993 season. Going into 1994, here’s where the careers of our most recent HOF type pitchers stood:
Roger Clemens. 31 years old. 163 wins. The most dominant pitcher of the past decade with two Cy Youngs and an MVP to his name. But at 31 he entered a phase of three years of constant injuries that would see him add only 29 to his victory totals and his own GM to announce he was in twilight of his career. It seemed quite possible that the innings had taken their toll and his 30s were not going to be pretty.
Randy Johnson. 30 years old. 68 wins. Nuff said. Anybody suggesting that Randy Johnson would someday be a HOFer would have been laughed out of the building.
Greg Maddux. 28 years old. 115 wins. He had back to back Cy Youngs, was still young, was the best pitcher in the game and was definitely on the path to Cooperstown. But at only 115 wins had he punched his ticket yet? By Spring Training of ‘97 (at which time he was up to 150 wins and 4 consecutive Cy Youngs) the answer was Yes, but I don’t think it was yet in ST of ’94.
Tom Glavine. 28 years old. 95 wins. Same goes for Tom Glavine. He had three consecutive 20 win seasons and a Cy Young to his name and he was still young. But only 95 wins puts him 40 back of today’s 29 year old CC Sabathia.
John Smoltz. 27 yr. 72 wins. Wicked stuff, still young. But had yet to win more than 15 games in a season and often seemed like an add on on his own staff. Definitely had much work to do.
Pedro Martinez. 10 wins. Just be dumped off to Montreal for Delino DeShields. No.
I know Wins are a bad barometer, but they give a decent enough snapshot of a moment in time for these guys.
Most importantly, we can consider that Nolan Ryan’s methusalah-esque career caused all of these pitchers to be further along both the career Wins and the career WAR scale than they would have been if Ryan had retired at a more reasonable age. Put Ryan in the retirement home even as late as 43 years old, and Clemens is the only one of the above that can even begin to argue HOF credentials, and his argument’s not that strong.
My guess: ten, fifteen years from now it will seem like it was a seamless transition from the HOFers of the 90s/00s (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson etc) to whoever the HOF pitchers of the 10s/20s are (Lincecum, Greinke, ???).
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A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
That graph is great. Would love it even more if someone wanted to add name labels at each large decrease, noting who retired at that point.
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by Daniel Moroz on Apr 13, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
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by Daniel Moroz on Apr 13, 2010 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
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