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DiamondView 2.010: Minnesota Twins

This time around we'll look at the American League Central, the torture chamber for so many of my friends better known as Royals fans. You know the rules, so I won't waste time explaining exactly how we arrived here, but will at least mention that the DiamondView Team Composite at the end includes DH batting and runner projections, but not fielding for obvious reasons.

With that, I'd like to welcome Jesse Lund from Twinkie Town as a guest for this edition. We're looking at the Twins' starting lineup and Jesse will provide the commentary. Enjoy!

 

2010 Minnesota Twins

Batter-diamondview-cf-span_medium

Denard Span, CF:  Denard's quickly become a fan favorite, just as much because of his personality as his talents on the field.  He's a good leadoff hitter and, in spite of his UZR/150, is a pretty good defender.  It's a good thing he's fast, because he'll have a lot of ground to make up between Young and Cuddyer in the corners.

Star-divide

Batter-diamondview-2b-hudson_medium

Orlando Hudson, 2B:  His glove may be on the wane, but the overall production he can provide still makes him a significant upgrade over anyone else who could man the position.  He's a great option to hit second, where being a switch hitter can either force RHP to face a string of talented left-handed hitters or break up those left-handed hitters against a southpaw.

 

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Joe Mauer, C:  If you want to know what Joe Mauer means to the Twins, just look to the state's most recent legislation which has renamed Minneapolis, Mauerapolis; Minnesota, Mauersota; Christmas, Mauermas; Valentine's Day, We-Heart-Joe-Day.  It's true.  He's a special player.

 

Batter-diamondview-1b-morneau_medium

Justin Morneau, 1B:  Justin is the second-best hitter on the team, almost as strong of a hitter as Mauer, able to take the ball anywhere you throw it and just go with it.  As a result he can sometimes go for odd stretches without the home run, but then he crushes one.  And it's pretty.  At first he can pick it with the best, but his range is sub-par.

 

Batter-diamondview-dh-kubel_medium

Jason Kubel, DH:  A big breakout season for Kubel last year felt like a long time coming, but it was glorious.  He won't continue to hit .300, but he's been more selective at the dish and his power is for real.  If Gardy tires of Young and puts Kubel in left against right-handers (moving Thome to the DH vs RHP), the good news is that Kubel is just as bad in the field as Delmon.  By which I mean it couldn't get worse out there.

 

Batter-diamondview-rf-cuddyer_medium

Michael Cuddyer, RF:  Last season's version of Cuddles is the real version--what you get when Cuddyer is healthy.  I've often wondered if his UZR/150 is as bad as it's been because the baggy hurt him in the Dome, but this year I'll find out for sure.  Either way, the corner outfielders don't move well.

 

Batter-diamondview-ss-hardy_medium

J.J. Hardy, SS:  Hardy provides good power from the seven spot, which is a bonus coming from a shortstop.  His other big asset is his glove.  In spite of being a solid defender at a premium position, he's not fleet of foot and it shows on the bases.  When he gets on.

 

Batter-diamondview-lf-dyoung_medium

Delmon Young, LF:  CHONE really likes Delmon to improve this season, and I would be the first in line to give the guy a high five.  He's dropped 30 pounds in the off-season, so here's hoping he's a bit more nimble in the field...but I'm not holding my breath.  If he struggles he'll get platooned, getting starts against southpaws only.

 

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Nick Punto, 3B:  Head-first slides into first be damned!  Gardy WILL give a starting spot to Punto, and the only infield spot left is third base, which slides Brendan Harris to the bench.  He won't provide typical corner IF offense, but he's alright as a #9 hitter.  Danny Valencia will get a shot at some point this year.

 

Batter-diamondview-team-avg-min_medium

Overall, this is a lineup that's fairly balanced.  There's power in the middle, and the top half of the order won't have a problem getting on base.  A healthy Twins lineup should be one of the best in the American League.  The infield defense won't be too bad, and in general they're strong up the middle, but that outfield defense is still suspect at best.  Speed at the top and bottom of the order, but this is also another area of weakness for Minnesota, and might be a reason to keep Alexi Casilla on the bench rather than jettison him to make room for Hudson.

 

Thanks again to Jesse Lund, who is doing fantastic work over at Twinkie Town. Check out his interview with Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony, a must read for any Twins fan.

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A bit optimistic about the power of The Tower of Mauer? He probably doesn’t have any more power than Hardy, realistically.

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 9, 2010 2:19 AM EST reply actions  

Thanks Justin!

The composit reminds me just how slow this team will be.

As far as the power goes as far as Mauer is concerned, it will be interesting to see A) how the new field affects what he does and B) how pitchers approach him. Bettman is right, Mauer probably doesn’t have any more power than Hardy, but the fact that Mauer is about four times the hitter that Hardy is should mean something. If I had to place an over-under on Joe’s HR totals, I’d place it around 23. Looking at how his homers were hit last season, the fact that he can hit so many of them to the opposite field is incredible…and his HR:FB ratio when he pulls is absolutely frightening. But yeah…I’m interested to see how it ends up playing.

I also want to say that the defense in the outfield corners STILL scares me.

by Jesse on Mar 9, 2010 6:21 AM EST reply actions  

Nice:
In spite of being a solid defender at a premium position, [JJ Hardy’s] not fleet of foot and it shows on the bases. When he gets on.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 9, 2010 7:58 AM EST reply actions  

The Mauer Power issue is probably half semantics, half wild ass guesses.
  1. JBopp’s using slugging percentage as the power metric, so Mauer’s .340 batting average is really helping there. JJ Hardy’s more of a .260 hitter, making his career SLG lower than Mauer’s, .428 to .483. But if you remove the singles and just go by isolated power, Hardy has the career edge .168 to .156. Of course, if Mauer keeps any of his 2009 power surge, he’ll post a higher ISO than Hardy.
  1. Mauer went from 9 HRs in 2008 to 28 HRs in 2009. Who the heck knows how many he’ll hit in 2010. CHONE thinks 18, which is as good a guess as any. But 9 or 28 shouldn’t shock anyone. We’re all entitled to our opinions, but I don’t think they mean much.

(Wow, how impressive is it that while Mauer increased his HR total by 19, he only hit one fewer double?)

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 9, 2010 9:19 AM EST reply actions  

I'm looking forward to seeing if those oppo-bombs are a trend or a fluke.

Dude’s got strength, but that’s a pretty wicked split for pull VS oppo homers. How the wind plays in Target Field (out through gap in right field seats, or boomerang effect) will have some effect, but that’s only half the story. Either way, he’s a lot of fun to watch.

by Jesse on Mar 9, 2010 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

The left field homers are pretty clearly a fluke on some level

The guy hit 17 HR to left field from 2004 to 2008, and then he hit 16 HR to left in 2009. He probably did make some legitimate, sustainable improvement last season, but he’s still not really a 25-30 HR hitter, at least given the data at hand.

Then again, he doesn’t turn 27 until April, we don’t really know how Target Field will play, and he is Joe Mauer.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 9, 2010 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Hard to imagine talking about Punto

without mentioning his awesome glove. He’s clearly the best choice on the current roster to start at 3B despite his bat. Harris is the definition of replacement level

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 9, 2010 2:42 PM EST reply actions  

some guy

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

His arm strength scares me from third base.

I know, I know…as long as the ball gets there. But there are a lot of bounces on his throws to first base.

Still, he can get to the ball, which is better than the alternative. And he does that better than any of the other options on the roster.

by Jesse on Mar 9, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

His metrics look awfully nice though

even factoring for the whole small sample size thing

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 9, 2010 6:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

True.

He definitely has value, even if he makes us want to rip our hair out sometimes.

by Jesse on Mar 9, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions  

when is the next diamond view coming?

and who is it gonna be?

bird law in this country is not ruled by reason

by soxshenanigans on Mar 25, 2010 2:12 PM EDT reply actions  

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