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2010 Player Projections - Jason Bay

Over this weekend, we will look at Jason Bay.  I have my own opinion I will share in the comments.

Standard Projections












Season Type G PA H 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG
2010 Bill James 153 648 150 84 32 2 32 88 159 11 4 0.268
2010 CHONE 147 622 141 80 25 2 34 86 146 7 2 0.267
2010 Marcel 586 133 76 27 3 27 71 135 9 2 0.264
2010 All Fans (138) 151 646 153 89 32 3 29 86 155 10 1 0.273
2010 Other Fans (92) 152 648 153 89 32 3 29 87 155 10 1 0.273
2010 Team Fans (45) 151 643 154 89 32 3 30 85 157 9 1 0.276

Advanced Projections








Season Type BB% K% OBP SLG OPS BABIP wRC wOBA
2010 Bill James 13.6% 28.4% 0.374 0.504 0.878 0.320 104.7 0.379
2010 CHONE 13.8% 27.6% 0.376 0.514 0.890 0.307 104.9 0.388
2010 Marcel 12.1% 26.8% 0.358 0.491 0.849 0.305 89.3 0.368
2010 All Fans (138) 13.3% 27.7% 0.372 0.499 0.871 0.324 104.9 0.378
2010 Other Fans (92) 13.4% 27.6% 0.373 0.496 0.869 0.318 105.1 0.378
2010 Team Fans (45) 13.2% 28.1% 0.374 0.506 0.880 0.334 106 0.381

Advanced Projections








Season Type BB% K% OBP SLG OPS BABIP wRC wOBA
2010 Bill James 13.6% 28.4% 0.374 0.504 0.878 0.320 104.7 0.379
2010 CHONE 13.8% 27.6% 0.376 0.514 0.890 0.307 104.9 0.388
2010 Marcel 12.1% 26.8% 0.358 0.491 0.849 0.305 89.3 0.368
2010 All Fans (138) 13.3% 27.7% 0.372 0.499 0.871 0.324 104.9 0.378
2010 Other Fans (92) 13.4% 27.6% 0.373 0.496 0.869 0.318 105.1 0.378
2010 Team Fans (45) 13.2% 28.1% 0.374 0.506 0.880 0.334 106 0.381

Poll
How will Jason Bay perform in 2010 compared to his Chone projection of: 147 games, 622 PA, 34 HRs, 0.267/0.376/0.514, 0.388 wOBA, 3.0 WAR
Better
25 votes
Same
73 votes
Worse
107 votes

205 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments |

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Comments

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Less, Citi Field is going to kill those HRs

I could see him struggle to get to 20 HRs

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 6, 2010 12:21 AM EST reply actions  

that's nuts

He’s going to drop 16 homers because of a park that we suspect is a pitcher’s park?

by Sam Page on Mar 6, 2010 1:52 AM EST up reply actions  

No, but he’s not going to hit 34.

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http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 6, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Blue dots are HRs

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

you also have to take the rest of the mets’ lineup into consideration. he might see more IBB’s this year especially if beltran and wright don’t come through this year.

by packimop on Mar 7, 2010 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I have been trying to find Citi's HR PF with no luck

I just kind of expect a David Wright drop off for Bay.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 7, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions  

A 20 home run drop off?

Wright struggled to hit homers anywhere last year, not just Citi. There’s no reason to think Bay won’t hit 30+ next year or Wright hit 25+, assuming he had other factors effecting his game such as his approach or possible knee injury that I’ve heard about.

by Evan_S on Mar 7, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions  

(Mets+Opponents) HRs home vs. away were pretty even, iirc

although the away includes ~20 at NYY, SFG, BOS, and PHI

by hotspur on Mar 8, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Question

Are the blue dots where the hr’s landed or where they were projected to land? If those homers landed in the monster seats, wouldn’t it stand to reason that they would carry further in the absence of the monster?

by Reg Dunlop on Mar 8, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he'll lose that much

A lot of his shots to left-center were no-doubters, I think that he’d probably lose around 5-6 home runs from that transition, but not 15 or 16. I think that 29-30 homers is a reasonable expectation for him.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 6, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

CHONE projects 3.7 WAR not 3.0

A 16-18 HR dropoff seems pretty outlandish, as many have pointed out above.

by James Kannengieser on Mar 8, 2010 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Sorry if he's already been done,

But I’d like to see Jered weaver’s projections examined…

WOOT WOOT! Baseball's back!

by Figgi4life on Mar 6, 2010 3:23 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

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