2010 Player Projections - Jason Bay
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 6, 2010 12:13 AM EST
15 comments
Over this weekend, we will look at Jason Bay. I have my own opinion I will share in the comments.
| Standard Projections | |||||||||||||
| Season | Type | G | PA | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
| 2010 | Bill James | 153 | 648 | 150 | 84 | 32 | 2 | 32 | 88 | 159 | 11 | 4 | 0.268 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 147 | 622 | 141 | 80 | 25 | 2 | 34 | 86 | 146 | 7 | 2 | 0.267 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 586 | 133 | 76 | 27 | 3 | 27 | 71 | 135 | 9 | 2 | 0.264 | |
| 2010 | All Fans (138) | 151 | 646 | 153 | 89 | 32 | 3 | 29 | 86 | 155 | 10 | 1 | 0.273 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (92) | 152 | 648 | 153 | 89 | 32 | 3 | 29 | 87 | 155 | 10 | 1 | 0.273 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (45) | 151 | 643 | 154 | 89 | 32 | 3 | 30 | 85 | 157 | 9 | 1 | 0.276 |
| Advanced Projections | |||||||||
| Season | Type | BB% | K% | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP | wRC | wOBA |
| 2010 | Bill James | 13.6% | 28.4% | 0.374 | 0.504 | 0.878 | 0.320 | 104.7 | 0.379 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 13.8% | 27.6% | 0.376 | 0.514 | 0.890 | 0.307 | 104.9 | 0.388 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 12.1% | 26.8% | 0.358 | 0.491 | 0.849 | 0.305 | 89.3 | 0.368 |
| 2010 | All Fans (138) | 13.3% | 27.7% | 0.372 | 0.499 | 0.871 | 0.324 | 104.9 | 0.378 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (92) | 13.4% | 27.6% | 0.373 | 0.496 | 0.869 | 0.318 | 105.1 | 0.378 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (45) | 13.2% | 28.1% | 0.374 | 0.506 | 0.880 | 0.334 | 106 | 0.381 |
| Advanced Projections | |||||||||
| Season | Type | BB% | K% | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP | wRC | wOBA |
| 2010 | Bill James | 13.6% | 28.4% | 0.374 | 0.504 | 0.878 | 0.320 | 104.7 | 0.379 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 13.8% | 27.6% | 0.376 | 0.514 | 0.890 | 0.307 | 104.9 | 0.388 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 12.1% | 26.8% | 0.358 | 0.491 | 0.849 | 0.305 | 89.3 | 0.368 |
| 2010 | All Fans (138) | 13.3% | 27.7% | 0.372 | 0.499 | 0.871 | 0.324 | 104.9 | 0.378 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (92) | 13.4% | 27.6% | 0.373 | 0.496 | 0.869 | 0.318 | 105.1 | 0.378 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (45) | 13.2% | 28.1% | 0.374 | 0.506 | 0.880 | 0.334 | 106 | 0.381 |
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Less, Citi Field is going to kill those HRs
I could see him struggle to get to 20 HRs
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by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 6, 2010 12:21 AM EST reply actions
No, but he’s not going to hit 34.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 6, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Of the 15 HRs that Bay hit at Fenway last, only 2 would have left Citi
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by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Blue dots are HRs
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by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but you can't just take his 2009 home run distances and make that a projection for 2010
He’s been a 30 + home run guy every year of his career, including Pittsburgh.
I have been trying to find Citi's HR PF with no luck
I just kind of expect a David Wright drop off for Bay.
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by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 7, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
A 20 home run drop off?
Wright struggled to hit homers anywhere last year, not just Citi. There’s no reason to think Bay won’t hit 30+ next year or Wright hit 25+, assuming he had other factors effecting his game such as his approach or possible knee injury that I’ve heard about.
(Mets+Opponents) HRs home vs. away were pretty even, iirc
although the away includes ~20 at NYY, SFG, BOS, and PHI
Question
Are the blue dots where the hr’s landed or where they were projected to land? If those homers landed in the monster seats, wouldn’t it stand to reason that they would carry further in the absence of the monster?
I am pretty sure it was where they were projected to land, but let me find out.
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by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 8, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think he'll lose that much
A lot of his shots to left-center were no-doubters, I think that he’d probably lose around 5-6 home runs from that transition, but not 15 or 16. I think that 29-30 homers is a reasonable expectation for him.
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by Satchel Price on Mar 6, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
CHONE projects 3.7 WAR not 3.0
A 16-18 HR dropoff seems pretty outlandish, as many have pointed out above.
by James Kannengieser on Mar 8, 2010 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry if he's already been done,
But I’d like to see Jered weaver’s projections examined…
WOOT WOOT! Baseball's back!
by Figgi4life on Mar 6, 2010 3:23 AM EST via mobile reply actions
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