2010 Player Projections - Jason Bay

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 6, 2010 12:13 AM EST

Over this weekend, we will look at Jason Bay. I have my own opinion I will share in the comments.

Standard Projections
Season	Type	G	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2010	Bill James	153	648	150	84	32	2	32	88	159	11	4	0.268
2010	CHONE	147	622	141	80	25	2	34	86	146	7	2	0.267
2010	Marcel		586	133	76	27	3	27	71	135	9	2	0.264
2010	All Fans (138)	151	646	153	89	32	3	29	86	155	10	1	0.273
2010	Other Fans (92)	152	648	153	89	32	3	29	87	155	10	1	0.273
2010	Team Fans (45)	151	643	154	89	32	3	30	85	157	9	1	0.276

Advanced Projections
Season	Type	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	wRC	wOBA
2010	Bill James	13.6%	28.4%	0.374	0.504	0.878	0.320	104.7	0.379
2010	CHONE	13.8%	27.6%	0.376	0.514	0.890	0.307	104.9	0.388
2010	Marcel	12.1%	26.8%	0.358	0.491	0.849	0.305	89.3	0.368
2010	All Fans (138)	13.3%	27.7%	0.372	0.499	0.871	0.324	104.9	0.378
2010	Other Fans (92)	13.4%	27.6%	0.373	0.496	0.869	0.318	105.1	0.378
2010	Team Fans (45)	13.2%	28.1%	0.374	0.506	0.880	0.334	106	0.381

Advanced Projections
Season	Type	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	wRC	wOBA
2010	Bill James	13.6%	28.4%	0.374	0.504	0.878	0.320	104.7	0.379
2010	CHONE	13.8%	27.6%	0.376	0.514	0.890	0.307	104.9	0.388
2010	Marcel	12.1%	26.8%	0.358	0.491	0.849	0.305	89.3	0.368
2010	All Fans (138)	13.3%	27.7%	0.372	0.499	0.871	0.324	104.9	0.378
2010	Other Fans (92)	13.4%	27.6%	0.373	0.496	0.869	0.318	105.1	0.378
2010	Team Fans (45)	13.2%	28.1%	0.374	0.506	0.880	0.334	106	0.381

Poll

How will Jason Bay perform in 2010 compared to his Chone projection of: 147 games, 622 PA, 34 HRs, 0.267/0.376/0.514, 0.388 wOBA, 3.0 WAR

Better

25 votes

Same

73 votes

Worse

107 votes

205 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Less, Citi Field is going to kill those HRs

I could see him struggle to get to 20 HRs

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 6, 2010 12:21 AM EST reply actions

that's nuts

He’s going to drop 16 homers because of a park that we suspect is a pitcher’s park?

by Sam Page on Mar 6, 2010 1:52 AM EST up reply actions

No, but he’s not going to hit 34.

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by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 6, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

Of the 15 HRs that Bay hit at Fenway last, only 2 would have left Citi

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

Blue dots are HRs

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, but you can't just take his 2009 home run distances and make that a projection for 2010

He’s been a 30 + home run guy every year of his career, including Pittsburgh.

by vivaelpujols on Mar 6, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

you also have to take the rest of the mets’ lineup into consideration. he might see more IBB’s this year especially if beltran and wright don’t come through this year.

by packimop on Mar 7, 2010 12:30 AM EST up reply actions

I have been trying to find Citi's HR PF with no luck

I just kind of expect a David Wright drop off for Bay.

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 7, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions

Wright struggled to hit homers anywhere last year, not just Citi. There’s no reason to think Bay won’t hit 30+ next year or Wright hit 25+, assuming he had other factors effecting his game such as his approach or possible knee injury that I’ve heard about.

by Evan_S on Mar 7, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions