Did Florida Just Find Another Relief Gem?
When it comes to the Marlins, there's one thing that they've consistently done well in recent memory, beyond trading away veterans and skimping on their payroll: finding good, cheap relievers.
As R.J. Anderson outlined on FanGraphs last month, the Marlins have spent the past few years filling their bullpen with "one-and-done" guys that rarely would spend more than a year or two in the organization. In 2008, the club hit big on Joe Nelson and Doug Waechter, getting solid performance for pennies. Last season was much of the same, with Kiko Calero and Brendan Donnelly highlighting what was one of the better bullpens in the league.
This offseason, "the Marlins' next batch," as Anderson coined it, consisted of Clay Hensley, Mike MacDougal, Jose Veras, Seth McClung, Scott Strickland and Derrick Turnbow. The team has since released MacDougal, McClung, Strickland and Turnbow, while Veras appears to have a spot in the 'pen and Hensley is still battling for the No. 5 spot in Florida's rotation, behind Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad.
But today, I think that the Marlins may have landed their next quality short-term relief option in former Tigers left-hander Nate Robertson, assuming that the Tigers are covering the vast majority of Robertson's 2010 salary. Robertson started off his career in Florida and was dealt to Detroit in the 2003 Mark Redman deal, and his solid work earned him a three-year contract extension after the 2007 season. In his first two seasons since signing the extension, he's posted a 6.14 ERA in 218 innings, with a poor 1.59 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
But Robertson has continued to do one thing well throughout his career, and that's dominate left-handed hitters. Robertson has faced over 1,100 lefties in his career, posting a 3.34 FIP and 3.49 xFIP against them, compared to 5.21 and 4.72 marks against righties, respectively. Against left-handers, he misses more bats, walks less guys, and induces more groundballs, making for a significantly better pitcher all-around.
Now, Robertson's been durable and he was good enough to post WARs between 1.9 and 2.6 each year for a four-year span as a starter in Detroit. But with that kind of domination against left-handers, it seems that Robertson could make for one damn good lefty specialist. And for a team whose best left-handed relievers are Renyel Pinto and Dan Meyer, having another high-quality option around would be pretty smart.
It's unclear whether the Marlins plan to give Robertson the fifth starter's job right off the bat, and frankly, he could probably make for a decent No. 5 starter on a team with a glimmer of hope for contention. But with his skill set, he's a pitcher that could end up becoming a major asset out of the bullpen.
(Note: I just realized this after putting up the post, but this deal means that Dontrelle Willis should actually end up in Detroit's Opening Day starting rotation. And, I'm sorry, but that's just freaking awesome. Few things baseball-related would give me more pleasure than Dontrelle actually succeeding in the majors again. A few weeks ago, this guy was dead and buried as far as Major League Baseball was concerned. Now he's in the rotation for what many consider to be a contender. Go figure.)
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From my understanding, the plan is to have Robertson begin as the #4 or #5
But VandenHurk is around and probably better, so it will be interesting to see how long the current arrangement lasts.
That team is one busted Andrew Miller away from being a legit contender.
Yeah, he probably gets a shot at the No. 5 role.
I’m pretty sure that Hensley was in line to win it before this deal was made. Either way, it seems that Robertson would end up in the pen eventually, with both Sean West and Andrew Miller in Triple-A, right?
Miller or West would be just as good as Robertson in the rotation (along with having significantly more upside) and Robertson could emerge as one of their best relievers if put into that role. Robertson simply is what he is: a mediocre back-of-the-rotation starter that could emerge as a really good lefty specialist thanks to a hefty platoon split.
Does his ability to eat innings as a starter outweigh superior production as a relief? Quantity or quality? If West or Miller starts to dominate in the minors, it would seem that Robertson would be ticketed to the bullpen, right? I’d just like to see what Robertson could do as a LOOGY-type.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Mar 30, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
According to Rosenthal, the Marlins got Robertson for the minimum
Tigers covering $9.6m of his $10m salary. That implies there’s not going to be much commitment here to Robertson as a starter, so it’s really easy to see him get moved or dumped before long if he doesn’t work out in the rotation. Gotta be worth a bullpen shot once West/Miller/VandenHurk step up.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think you gotta give a bullpen shot to a guy with such a strong record of getting out lefties
His value may be limited then, but it still makes him a pretty darn useful pitcher.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Mar 30, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It's interesting that they traded a future LOOGY for a potentially current one
I wonder how often that happens.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Nate out of the bullpen
Nate wasn’t that effective coming out of the bullpen last year for the Tigers. Now whether that was a mind problem or in combination with not being 100% is open to discussion.
While this was trade was going on this afternoon, Willis pitched against the orioles and in 4 1/3 gave up 5 runs, 7 hits, and 4 walks, with 3 k’s.
But it was just 22 innings.
He had a .343 BABIP and a crazy low 59% strand rate. He was really unlucky, and either way, that’s a really small sample size.
As for Willis, do you think that the Tigers would actually go with Bonderman/Bonine in the 4/5 spots?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Mar 30, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Tigers 4th and 5th rotation spots
Well, for now it is Bonderman and Willis. Dontrelle will be under the microscope even if he throws back to back complete game shutouts. Nate had the most trade value with the spring he had; better k/9 innings and the bite on his slider was back. I think the key to this muddle is Bonderman stepping up in the 4th spot. If he can pitch somewhat effectively, any combo of Willis, Bonine, and a return to health Miner at the 5 spot. If none of this works out through most of May,
I wonder if Phil Coke becomes the next option in the back of the rotation. No matter what, as much as I want to see them succeed and contend this year, my initial and still current thoughts for 2010 is as a transition year.
by KalineCountry on Mar 30, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
This might be complete BS...
… but I remember reading something a few years ago about how soft-tossing lefties see a lot of success going from the AL to the NL. Related to Mark Redman’s transition, maybe. Anyway, given that Robertson’s FIP has been decent (better than his ERA) recently and he’s moving to a pitcher-friendly park, he could be a big breakout candidate.
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Robertson has always been in a pitcher-friendly park...
Either way, she should be given a fair chance as a starter. As for the D-Train, I hope he makes the biggest comeback in recent memory, but I’m not counting on it.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 30, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Comerica Park is actually a hitters park over the last 3 years.
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by Mike Rogers on Mar 30, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't like this trade.
Well, not the trade specifically, but the motives/decision making behind it. Couldn’t Willis have an ERA that reflected how poorly he’s pitched this spring so he wouldn’t push out a better option at the back of the rotation of a team that’s fancying themselves a contender?
Willis only costs $2 mil more than Nate, too.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Yeah, but it would be so much cooler if he succeeded.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 30, 2010 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
100% agreed.
He’s a tough dude to not root for.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Satch, the Marlins acquired Robertson to start
Larry Beinfest mentioned it in an MLB.com article. Hensley’s getting pushed to long relief.
I like the move, in the sense that it can’t hurt. Voss was no one of interest in the organization, and if he eats up 160 innings at 4.6-4.7 FIP, well, I’ve seen worse. It’s really more of a lateral move than anything else, with the caveat that he might be a bit better moving to the NL.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
What's happening to Miller + West?
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Miller and West were both sent down to the minors
In spring, neither pitcher decided to throw strikes at rates currently acceptable in the majors, so the team sent them down. Miller will start in Triple-A, and I believe West will as well.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Baseball Propsectus Fantasy Beat
Writer, Heater Magazine
12 BB and 13 K in 19 IP?
lol wut?
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

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