Wisdom of the Crowds - 2010 Prospect Rankings

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 3, 2010 1:32 PM EST

Note: There are a couple of corrections to the original list as pointed out by OccamsRazor and SFreixeX4 in the comments.

This time of year several sources put out prospect rankings and I decided to to collect as many as I could for a combined ranking. I started collecting them myself, but Joe Hamrahi at BaseballDailyDiget.com did the heavy lifting for me. Today, Baseball-Prospectus released their rankings so it was time to compare the lists.

Methodology:

In total,13 rankings were used and I didn't use Dobber Rankings from the Baseball Daily Digest list as it contained some players that were actually rookies last season.
I averaged and counted the rankings from each list. Some list were only top 20, while others were top 101. Due to the different lengths, I was not able to give credit to players that might have just missed one list.
I ranked all the players by the averaged ranking. I placed all players that only appear in one list in a honorable mention list. I was looking for players that several people acknowledge as good.
With this list, I then divided the list into 7 Tiers. I looked for large breaks in the rankings and placed the tiers at these breaks.

I am happy with the results. There seem to only be a few players that stick out. Jhoulys Chacin of the Rockies is on 10 lists which should put him in the top 30, but because he is ranked from as high as 20 to as low as 91, he ends up at 45. Mike Minor, Anthony Gose, Andy Oliver and Juan Francisco were all ranked 50 or higher by one person, but no one else put them on their lists. Here is the top tier with the rest after the jump.

I have put the list into a Google Doc also.

Rank	Name, Position, Team	Average of Ranks	Number of Rankings	Tier
1	Jason Heyward, of, Braves	1.4	13	1
2	Stephen Strasburg, rhp, Nationals	1.9	13	1
3	Desmond Jennings, of, Rays	5.8	12	1
4	Mike Stanton, of, Marlins	5.9	13	1
5	Jesus Montero, c, Yankees	6.5	13	1
6	Buster Posey, c, Giants	6.8	13	1
7	Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles	7.5	13	1
8	Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers	8.7	13	1
9	Carlos Santana, c, Indians	8.9	13	1

Rank	Name, Position, Team	Average of Ranks	Number of Rankings	Tier
10	Dustin Ackley, of/1b/2b, Mariners	12.0	13	1.5
11	Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers	12.8	13	1.5
12	Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates	13.3	12	1.5
13	Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants	14.5	13	1.5
14	Domonic Brown, of, Phillies	15.7	13	1.5

15	Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers	17.6	11	2
16	Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays	18.5	11	2
17	Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers	19.3	12	2
18	Aroldis Chapman, lhp, Reds	19.4	9	2
19	Kyle Drabek, rhp, Blue Jays	20.4	11	2
20	Starlin Castro, ss, Cubs	21.2	9	2
21	Wade Davis, rhp, Rays	23.3	10	2
22	Michael Taylor, of, Athletics	23.5	10	2
23	Chris Carter, of/1b, Athletics	23.6	11	2
24	Casey Kelly, rhp, Red Sox	24.0	10	2
25	Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies	24.6	7	2
26	Aaron Hicks, of, Twins	25.2	10	2
27	Brett Wallace, 3b/1b, Blue Jays	25.6	10	2
28	Ryan Westmoreland, of, Red Sox	27.6	10	2
29	Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks	28.9	7	2
30	Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins	29.0	11	2

31	Derek Norris, c, Nationals	33.0	7	2.5

33	Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians	39.0	6	3
34	Mike Montgomery, lhp, Royals	39.3	8	3
35	Jennry Mejia, rhp, Mets	39.3	7	3
32	Dee Gordon, ss, Dodgers	40.0	7	3
36	Josh Bell, 3b, Orioles	41.3	8	3
37	Jaff Decker, of, Padres	41.6	7	3
38	Fernando Martinez, of, Mets	41.8	9	3
39	Matt Moore, lhp, Rays	42.2	6	3
40	Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds	43.0	7	3
41	Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves	44.0	6	3
42	Dan Hudson, rhp, White Sox	45.2	6	3
43	Tyler Matzek, lhp, Rockies	45.2	6	3
44	Donavan Tate, of, Padres	45.4	5	3
45	Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Rockies	46.3	10	3
46	Hector Rondon, SP, Indians	46.8	4	3

47	Jacob Turner, rhp, Tigers	48.7	6	4
48	Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals	49.0	5	4
49	Casey Crosby, lhp, Tigers	50.2	6	4
50	Arodys Vizcaino, rhp, Braves	50.3	4	4
51	Jason Castro, c, Astros	50.3	7	4
52	Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs	50.3	6	4
53	Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves	50.9	7	4
54	Michael Saunders, of, Mariners	51.7	7	4
55	Austin Jackson, of, Tigers	52.3	7	4
56	Aaron Crow, rhp, Royals	52.6	7	4
57	Tanner Scheppers, rhp, Rangers	53.2	6	4
58	Tim Beckham, ss, Rays	53.7	7	4
59	Matt Dominguez , 3B , FLA	54.0	2	4
60	Alex Colome, rhp, Rays	55.0	2	4
61	Hak Ju Lee , SS , CHC	55.5	2	4
62	Brett Lawrie, 2b, Brewers	56.0	7	4
63	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b, Reds	56.2	6	4
64	Carlos Triunfel , SS , SEA	56.7	3	4
65	James Darnell, 3b, Padres	58.7	3	4
66	Phillippe Aumont, rhp, Phillies	59.2	5	4
67	Wilson Ramos, c, Twins	60.5	6	4

68	Noel Arguelles, lhp, Royals	62	3	5
69	Simon Castro, rhp, Padres	63.2	5	5
70	Ben Revere, OF, Twins	63.25	4	5
71	Wilmer Flores, ss, Mets	63.8	5	5
72	Ike Davis, 1b, Mets	64	6	5
73	Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC	64	3	5
74	Zach Britton, lhp, Orioles	64	6	5
75	Mike Trout, of, Angels	64.67	6	5
76	Mike Leake, rhp, Reds	64.71	7	5
77	Manny Banuelos , P , NYY	65.33	3	5
78	Reid Brignac, ss, Rays	67.25	4	5
79	Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals	67.29	7	5
80	Wil Myers, C, Royals	67.5	4	5
81	Drew Storen, rhp, Nationals	68.63	8	5
82	Alex White, rhp, Indians	68.67	3	5
83	Josh Reddick, of, Red Sox	68.67	3	5
84	Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins	68.8	5	5
85	Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros	69.25	4	5
86	Austin Romine, c, Yankees	69.33	3	5
87	Jared Mitchell, of, White Sox	69.4	5	5
88	Chris Withrow, rhp, Dodgers	69.8	5	5
89	Tyler Flowers, c, White Sox	70.67	6	5
90	Zack Wheeler, rhp, Giants	71.25	4	5
91	Jason Knapp, rhp, Indians	71.67	3	5
92	Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers	72.67	3	5
93	Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates	73	5	5
94	Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox	74	4	5
95	Grant Green, ss, Athletics	74	6	5
96	Hank Conger, c, Angels	74.4	5	5
97	Jiovanni Mier, ss, Astros	74.6	5	5
98	Miguel Sano, ss/3b, Twins	75.33	3	5
99	Zach Stewart , P , TOR	75.5	4	5
100	Jose Iglesias , SS , BOS	76.25	4	5
101	Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles	77.3	6	5
102	Nick Hagadone, lhp, Indians	78.6	5	5
103	Jay Jackson, rhp, Cubs	79.7	3	5
104	Mat Gamel, 3b, Brewers	80.0	4	5
105	Thomas Neal, of, Giants	81.0	3	5
106	Brett Jackson, of, Cubs	81.4	5	5
107	Bobby Borchering , 3B , ARZ	81.5	2	5
108	Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels	83.5	4	5
109	Tony Sanchez, c, Pirates	83.8	6	5
110	Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox	85.7	3	5
111	Andrew Cashner, rhp, Cubs	87.0	2	5
112	Peter Bourjos, of, Angels	89.0	3	5
113	Travis d'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays	90.0	2	5
114	Junichi Tazawa , P , BOS	94.0	2	5

HM	Mike Minor	43.0	1	6
HM	Anthony Gose	46.0	1	6
HM	Andy Oliver	47.0	1	6
HM	Juan Francisco	48.0	1	6
HM	Devaris Gordon , SS , LAD	49.0	1	6
HM	Tyson Gillies	50.0	1	6
HM	Anthony Rizzo	53.0	1	6
HM	Scott Sizemore	57.0	1	6
HM	Ruben Tejada , SS , NYM	58.0	1	6
HM	Daryl Jones	59.0	1	6
HM	Chris Marrero	63.0	1	6
HM	Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics	66.0	1	6
HM	Matt Sweeney	68.0	1	6
HM	David Bromberg	70.0	1	6
HM	Nick Weglarz , OF , CLE	70.0	1	6
HM	Daniel Duffy , P , KC	71.0	1	6
HM	Michael Brantley	71.0	1	6
HM	Jonathan Galvez , SS , SD	73.0	1	6
HM	Zach McAllister	76.0	1	6
HM	Andrew Mambo , OF , LAD	76.0	1	6
HM	Chad James, lhp, Marlins	78.0	1	6
HM	Daniel Schlereth	78.0	1	6
HM	Edinson Rincon , 3B , SD	80.0	1	6
HM	Craig Kimbrel	81.0	1	6
HM	Zeke Spruill	83.0	1	6
HM	Adam Moore, c, Mariners	83.0	1	6
HM	Wilin Rosario	84.0	1	6
HM	Randall Delgado	85.0	1	6
HM	Brandon Allen	85.0	1	6
HM	Jhan Marinez	86.0	1	6
HM	Max Stassi , C , OAK	88.0	1	6
HM	Chris Heisey	88.0	1	6
HM	Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels	89.0	1	6
HM	A.J. Pollock	92.0	1	6
HM	Alex Liddi	93.0	1	6
HM	Jon Niese , P , NYM	93.0	1	6
HM	Tim Melville, RHP, Royals	93.0	1	6
HM	Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners	94.0	1	6
HM	Grant Desme	94.0	1	6
HM	Eric Arnett	95.0	1	6
HM	Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels	95.0	1	6
HM	Julio Morban , OF , SEA	96.0	1	6
HM	Jurickson Profar	96.0	1	6
HM	Jamie Garcia	99.0	1	6
HM	Michael Bowden , P , BOS	100.0	1	6
HM	Brent Morel	100.0	1	6
HM	Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals	101.0	1	6

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Comments

Devaris vs. Dee

There’s only one SS prospect named Gordon playing for LA – his full name is Devaris Strange-Gordon but he’s usually just called Dee. You have him as both an HM and at #32.

by OccamsRazor on Mar 3, 2010 4:40 PM EST reply actions

Thanks, I caught a few of the name differences, but figured there were more floating around

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 3, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

Jeff, why are some players missing teams/positions?

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by SFiercex4 on Mar 3, 2010 4:55 PM EST reply actions

The lists from Baseball Daily Digest only had names on some lists

I tried to make sure anyone ranked with a number had team information

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 3, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

And I see I missed two -- will clean up later tonight

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 3, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

sweeeeeeeet

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 8:29 PM EST reply actions

How many of these were only 20 deep?

If it’s only one or two, I’d focus on the 100-deep lists and assign all players not listed a ranking of 101 (or maybe 110 or 120). Ranking 98 should be better than missing the list, but that’s not how it is right now.

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 3, 2010 9:05 PM EST reply actions

But this is awesome.

I’d love to see someone re-run Victor Wang’s study with a large complement of prospect rankings. Or maybe see which aggregation of lists gives the best predictor of future success? Or which list gives the best predictor of future value?

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 3, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

I think the more the data the better and was thinking of giving some credence to number of lists.

Btw – only 7 of the lists goto 100

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 3, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

Great Resource!

Thanks, Jeff, for putting this together. It’s a great resource.

At the risk of sounding unappreciative, I’d like to echo Sky’s thought about focusing on the 100 player lists and then assigning a number around 120 or so for players that don’t make the list.

Without doing that, a player can actually get credit for not being ranked. I think.

Is this right? (assuming five total lists)

Player A: 50, 50, 50, 50, not ranked. Average = 50 (200 total points/4 lists)
Player B: 49, 51, 49, 51, 100. Average = 60 (300 total points/5 lists)

If we gave Player A 120 points for that fifth list, he’d be at 320 points and average 64. That seems about right to me.

Anyway, it just seems to me that Player B should be ranked above Player A, right? (four lists had them as exactly equal, and the fifth had one guy listed but the other one not. The guy listed on all five should be ahead of the guy listed on only four (assuming they’re equal on those four).

I’m not a math guy, so it’s also possible that I’m totally wrong about all of this…

by ajw on Mar 4, 2010 4:56 PM EST reply actions