Optimizing the Phillies and Yankees Lineups

I wrote two posts yesterday at ESPN's saber blog, optimizing the batting orders of the best AL and NL lineups according to The Book's rules of thumb. Here's what they looked like, against right-handers:

Yankees
1. Nick Johnson (L)
2. Mark Teixeira (S)
3. Curtis Granderson (L)
4. Alex Rodriguez (R)
5. Robinson Cano (L)
6. Derek Jeter (R)
7. Nick Swisher (S)
8. Jorge Posada (S)
9. Brett Gardner (L)

Phillies
1. Victorino (S)
2. Utley (L)
3. Werth (R)
4. Howard (L)
5. Ibanez (L)
6. Rollins (S)
7. Polanco (R)
8. Pitcher
9. Ruiz (R)

Given that these posts were 500 words each, lots information was simplified or skipped altogether. The comments section for each had some good (and not so good*) discussion. The more interesting things to consider are:

- Nick Johnson's platoon split. He's had a lower AVG against righties than lefties over his career, making his OBP about 30 points lower against them (with a higher SLG). But it's only 800 career PAs, and I believe its been shown you need at least 2000 PAs (3000?) to regress 50% towards the typical player's platoon split. So, given Johnson's ZiPS projection of .275/.418/.433, what would we expect his line against righties to look like?

- I've got Jeter in the sixth spot and Johnson's leading off (Zomg crazy!) Jeter's one advantage is baserunning. How much of an advantage is that, and how many runs would the Yankees gain just due to baserunning by flipping that order?

- The Book's heuristics are certainly better than the traditional heuristics, but lineups are so complicated that we really need a simulator to get results we're confident in. Anyone want to take a stab? Via Dan Szymborski, this one appears to be pretty good: lineupsimulator.com.

- For the Phillies, might there be a better leadoff option than Shane Victorino, who is, at best, the fifth best hitter on the team. Other options present the challenge of finding appropriate hitters for spots 2-5 without putting three lefties in a row. Ideas?

Other thoughts?

* The not so good: "Numbers can do a lot - but they can’t think. So people who rely on stats ... aren’t thinking."

4 months ago Sky Kalkman 9 comments 0 recs |

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Comments

Liked the Yankees piece a lot

I think that some people would be surprised with the suggestion that power should go higher in the order. Honestly, I was more blown away by Tex batting No. 2 than Jeter being pushed back to No. 6.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 19, 2010 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

I still dont get it

batting the pitcher 8th lets the 9th batter get on base more for the top of the lineup? Then why not put the pitcher in the 7 hole and let 8 and 9 interact with the top of the lineup more.

I'm Buck Melanoma. Moley Russell's wart. Not her wart. Not her wart! I'm... I'm the wart. She's my tumor. My... my growth. My... uh, my pimple. I'm Uncle Wart. Just old Buck "Wart" Russell. That's what they call me, or Melanoma Head. - Uncle Buck

by Andiamo Cuccioli on Mar 19, 2010 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

Because any time you move a hitter up a spot in the order

you’re directly giving them more plate appearances. You want to take advantage of having baserunners with your best hitters up, but you also want to ensure that your worst hitters hit as little as possible.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 19, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Moving the pitcher up to eighth also hurts run scoring by killing rallies with the 5/6/7 hitters.

But The Book found that the benefits outweighed the losses. They found that moving the pitcher up another spot was not worth it, however — likely because he hurts rallies with the middle of the lineup more, and putting a real hitter in the 8th spot doesn’t create a whole lot more for the 2/3/4 hitters. It’s all trade-offs.

AND, it’s only a rule of thumb. You really need to use a lineup simulator to make any definitive conclusions about specific teams and lineups.

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 19, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

And it should probably be reinforced

that the relative difference between one batting order and another isn’t really that much. Even an ideal batting order won’t add much more than a few runs to an offense. In the end, it’s more about the players themselves and not the order they’re placed in.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 19, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions