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Something Ludicrous? Dontrelle as Detroit's Fifth Starter

Yeah, I hardly believed my eyes when I read the headline, "Dontrelle Willis is probably going to make the Tigers' rotation," on HardballTalk yesterday.

But it really seems to be true. Coming into Spring Training, it really did look like Willis was simply going through the rounds to get his paycheck and disappear from our collective memory forever. As Craig reminded us, Willis even went as far as to call himself "terrible" while speaking with Lynn Henning of the Detroit News roughly a month ago.

Coming into the spring, Willis was expected to battle with Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galarraga, Nate Robertson and Eddie Bonine for the final two spots in Detroit's rotation, behind Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. Then again, did anyone actually expect to see Willis' name slotted into the rotation by the end of March? Because at this point, it seems damn likely.

Galarraga was optioned to Triple-A yesterday, and in case you missed it, Willis has been shockingly good this spring: five hits and one run allowed in 10 innings, with 6 strikeouts, five walks and zero home runs allowed. Meanwhile, Bonderman, Bonine and Galarraga have gotten smacked around, while Robertson leads the team with 10 strikeouts in 10.1 innings thus far this spring.

Star-divide

But realistically, it seems likely that Bonderman and Willis start the year in the rotation, given their respective contracts and track records. Bonderman was once viewed as the team's future ace, but he's been killed by injuries the past two years. Even though he's had a rough spring, he's probably got the most upside of any of Detroit's options, so if he's healthy he seems likely to land a spot in Detroit's rotation. Meanwhile, Willis is also among the team's highest paid players, and few people have forgotten when he took the National League by storm with a fun-loving attitude and an incredibly deceptive and fun-to-watch delivery.

Just to reflect a little, let's take a quick look at just how bad Dontrelle was the past two years. In 15 games, 14 of them starts, he posted a 8.27 ERA in just 57 innings. He struck out 35 and walked an insane 63 batters, with a brutal WHIP of 2.05 for the period. And the troubles continued in the minors, where he made starts at all three levels of the minor league ladder, posting a mid-4's ERA and a 61/45 K/BB ratio in 93 innings. His velocity was down, his changeup started to get smacked around, and his command and control completely fell apart. He was plagued by numerous injuries and apparent anxiety issues. From the looks of things, Willis' shelf life as a productive major league pitcher was over.

But here we are, in Spring Training 2010, and Willis is back in line to start every fifth day in the Motor City. Every spring, there are stories that you just can't predict (Ron Washington, anyone). When Dontrelle is starting for the Tigers in April, I think that you can chalk that up as one that nobody saw coming.

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…Robinson has 10 Ks in 10 innings, will he just go to the pen?

by brogshan on Mar 19, 2010 11:33 AM EDT reply actions  

I would think so.

He’s always been good against lefties so he should be pretty solid as a reliever, while Bonderman’s never really been in a relief role before.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 19, 2010 11:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Hey, let's try to focus on the hits and runs!

Were trying to be optimistic here. I mean, who doesn’t want to see Willis succeed again?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 19, 2010 1:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Since you mentioned Nate Robertson

Anyone care to explain that contract? $21.25m/3yr, buying out two years of team control and one year of free agency, coming off 30 starts with a 4.76 ERA and peripherals that matched it. And it’s not like he and his 88mph fastball portended some sort of breakthrough.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 19, 2010 1:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Honestly, I have zero idea.

I can’t really find any analysis of the deal from when it happened. But this was a guy who in four full seasons as a starter, had never posted an FIP or tERA under 4.5.

And his xFIP’s from 2004 through 2007? 3.91, 4.23, 4.35, 4.70. Not exactly what you’d call improvement. For all the good that Dave Dombrowski has done, his abiliity to sign his players to extensions has been a joke: Dontrelle, Bonderman, Robertson, Cabrera, Inge, Guillen, Sheffield, the list just goes on and on with guys that DD has really overpaid. (Okay, maybe not Miggy, but everyone else, for sure.)

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 19, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's see

A career 4.4-ish xFIP and durability equals about 2 WAR. Wins were going for, what, 4.4 million back then? Assuming 60% and 80% of his true value for the last two years of arby + 100% of his value for his free agent year, a .10% inflation in dollar per WAR and .5 WAR per year of attrition, you get about 16 million. And that’s assuming a very harsh attrition rate for a player in his prime. I don’t think you can call the extension a joke.

by vivaelpujols on Mar 20, 2010 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

For a guy with a huge platoon split

and a clearly downtrending performance? He just looked destined for the pen even when he was throwing 190 innings. Maybe it wasn’t a joke, per se, but I still see absolutely no need for the extension over going year-to-year.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 20, 2010 10:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

...
For a guy with a huge platoon split and a clearly downtrending performance?

So you must not be a fan of Curtis Granderson either.

He just looked destined for the pen even when he was throwing 190 innings.

Actually, he looked like a guy who averaged 190 innings and a 4.6 FIP over his 4 full seasons as a starter prior to the signing. FanGraphs has him worth between 1.9 and 2.6 WAR each year during that span. So league average pitcher with durability being signed to a reasonable extension = slight overpay, by my numbers above. I’m not sure what this means.

by vivaelpujols on Mar 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know, I just don't think you should unnecessarily sign a starter long-term

when he’s distinctly below average against the majority (RH) of the league. I don’t know what it all means either, but I’ve never looked fondly upon that deal.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 20, 2010 2:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

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