xFIP Doesn't Think K-Rod is Getting Better

by Satchel Price on Mar 16, 2010 9:40 AM EDT

Sorry, Met fans.

Hey, did I mention that Kiko Calero, Ryoto Igarashi and Bobby Parnell could be pretty good?

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But

If you flip the line upside down, xFIP thinks he’s improving. A simple manipulation of the numbers is all that is needed to make Frankie dominant again.

by James Kannengieser on Mar 16, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

You know whats scarier?

A 2012 vesting option for $17.5M. Heck, even the buyout is a pricey $3.5M.

by nmigliore on Mar 16, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

What makes it vest?

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 16, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

2012 option becomes guaranteed with:

1. 55 games finished in 2011, and
2. 100 games finished in 2010-11, and
3. doctors declare Rodriguez healthy after 2011

Rodriguez receives $3.5M termination buyout if 2012 option does not become guaranteed

by James Kannengieser on Mar 16, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I can't imagine that they let that vest.

How’d he even get that option put into the deal?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 16, 2010 11:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

That easily vests unless they intentionally sit him.

If this team contends for a playoff spot this year and next, it absolutely will.

by Evan_S on Mar 16, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Would sitting him and his low 4's FIP/xFIP really hurt?

I’d argue they’d be much better off preventing it from vesting somehow while letting another reliever get a save opp here or there. Spending $14M net, $17.5M total on K-Rod in 2012 would be pathetic.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 16, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

but as long as he’s getting SAVEZ, it won’t matter. He’s in decline and by 2012 he’ll probably be average at best, but if he’s getting saves, people won’t care, nor will Omar or Jerry. I really hope neither of them are still with the Mets by even the end of this year let alone 2012.

by Evan_S on Mar 16, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it's worth watching.

It shouldn’t really happen unless the Mets absolutely have to use him down the stretch in tight division races, they just can’t totally botch the situation like Detroit did with the Maggs vesting option.

At least Texas managed to dump most of Millwood’s deal while being able to take a flier on Chris Ray and Ben Snyder.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 16, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I would guess the logic was

that it was a consolation for him. 3 years for $37 Million was a far cry from his goal of 5 years and $75 Million. The justification certainly was along the lines of, “I’m a 26 year old coming off a 62 save season, I deserve the largest contract that a closer has ever gotten.” Maybe it was a sticking point for the deal to get done so quickly.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Mar 17, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe.

But who was going to outbid the Mets for him?The Angels? The Indians? I just didn’t see the market for K-Rod to get something like the roughly 4/52 he’ll get if the option vests.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Mar 18, 2010 9:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions