Help With 32 Questions Contest

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 13, 2010 12:26 PM EST

I want to run the contest we did last year where everyone tries to predict which one of a pair of choices will produce the larger number. Here's the full set of questions from last year, but the following were some of my favorites:

HRs by last year's SB leader, Willy Taveras
SBs by last year's HR leader, Ryan Howard

Javier Vazquez's ERA
Javier Vazquez's FIP

1000 times Jack Cust's AVG
Combined Runs by Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts

Most runs scored by one team in any game
Most caught stealings by any one player

World Series won by AL East Teams
World Series won by any NL team

What I need is help coming up with this year's questions. In my opinion, the best questions address popular storylines or hot debates, have symmetry, show creativity, and present two options that are equally likely to "win". So, please share your awesome ideas in the comments; they're much appreciated.

~~(To head off the obviously related question, I'm about 2/3 of the way through scoring last year's contest and will have results "soon".)~~ Results are in!

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Comments

I'm going to use an imbeded form to automatically record ballots in a spreadsheet this year, which will make scoring a lot easier.

And it will keep ballots private until voting closes.

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 13, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions

I also think I'll have one open-ended question as a tie-breaker, where people will submit a number and closest wins.

Something like “Angels wins + Ben Zobrist wRAA – Max Sherzer strikeouts”

Feel free to propose ideas for that question, too.

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 13, 2010 12:34 PM EST reply actions

Also (I'm on a roll)...

Remember that the tie-breaker for individual questions goes to whichever option was picked by the fewest number of people. So if we have at least a handful of questions where the likelihood of a tie is decent, it will be fun to try to predict how others will vote and if it’s worth going with the less likely option in order to also win the ties.

There was one tie in last year’s contest: there were two MVP/CY repeat winners (Pujols, Lincecum) and two first-timers (Mauer, Greinke). Since fewer people picked the first-timers, those people were credited with correct picks.

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 13, 2010 1:06 PM EST reply actions

Some ideas...

Been a longtime reader, but first time posting here.

Erik Bedard games started
Felix Hernandez wins

Mike Lowell home runs
Mike Lowell GIDPs

Number of times Milton Bradley is caught stealing
Number of times Milton Bradley is fined

Chipper Jones games played
Chipper Jones OPS+

Tim Wakefield K/9
Tim Wakefield wild pitches

Toronto wins
Baltimore wins

Home runs by Adam Dunn
Absolute value of Adam Dunn’s UZR/150

by khgiddon on Mar 13, 2010 2:04 PM EST reply actions

Interesting what gets people to post the first time. Thanks!

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 15, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Above .500 teams in the AL West
Above .500 teams in the AL East

Wins by AL Central Champ
Wins by Third Place team in AL East

Jacoby Ellsbury’s UZR
Zero

Russell Branyan’s HR
Russell Branyan’s Days on DL

Brandon Webb’s GS
15

Mariners UZR
Rays UZR

Adrian Beltre’s HR
Curtis Granderson’s HR

Adrian Beltre’s HR
1.5 times Adrian Beltre’s UZR

Bobby Cox Ejections
Chone Figgins HR + Jack Wilson HR

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by Zach Sanders on Mar 13, 2010 2:16 PM EST reply actions

Love the Beltre vs. Granderson

But Russell Branyan will fulfill the DL quota in the first 3 months.

by Wilder. on Mar 13, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sure I'll think of more. For now:

Jeff Francoeur on base average plus .100
Carlos Beltran on base average.

Carlos Lee home runs plus stolen bases.
Juan Pierre home runs plus stolen bases.

Andruw Jones 2010 batting average times 100.
Andruw Jones 2010 opening day weight (pounds).

Carlos Silva runs saved [(5-RA)*IP]/9.
Peter Moylan home runs allowed.

Jonathan Broxton strikeouts.
Oliver Perez strikeouts.

Albert Pujols fWAR.
Sum of the second and third most valuable Cardinals’ fWAR.

Roy Halladay strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Derek Lowe strikeouts per 9 innings.

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by PWHjort on Mar 13, 2010 2:44 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd for the Pujols one

And for saying fWAR instead of WAR. Although with Holliday and Wainwright and Rasmus and Molina and Carp, that should be a no brainer.

by vivaelpujols on Mar 13, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

Rec

for the Andrew Jones one

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by JD Sussman on Mar 13, 2010 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

Okay

RIch Harden’s IP
Ben Sheet’s IP

Mike Napoli’s innings played at C
Jeff Mathis’s innings played at C

Chris Davis Ks
Mark Reynolds Ks

J.A. Happ’s FIP – J.A. Happ’s ERA
Ricky Nolasco’s ERA – Ricky Nolasco’s FIP

Cliff Lee’s homers allowed + walks allowed
Carlos Lee’s strikeouts

Steven Strasburg’s wins
Adam Dunn’s GIDPs

Franklin Gutierrez’s UZR
Adam Dunn’s UZR times negative 1

Curtis Granderson’s Contact %
Ichiro’s O-Contact %

Joe Mauer’s LD%
Michael Young’s LD%

Elvis Andrus SBs + Julio Borbon SBs
Chone Figgins SBs + Ichiro SBs

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 13, 2010 4:12 PM EST reply actions

Rec

Love the Dunn UZR one

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by JD Sussman on Mar 13, 2010 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

Joel Pineiro’s GB%
Derek Lowe’s GB%

Mariano Rivera saves
Alex Rodriguez HRs

Buster Posey innings at catcher
Every other Giants’ innings at catcher

Jason Heyward games played
Steven Strasburg’s IP

Neftali Feliz’s average FB velocity
Tim Wakefield’s average FB velocity + 25

Nick Johnson’s OBP
Hideki Matsui’s SLG

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 13, 2010 4:29 PM EST reply actions

Also

Total days of Milton Bradley suspensions
Number of Lou Piniella ejections

Albert Pujols SLG
Yuniesky Betancourt OPS

Colby “Colbyashi” Lewis’s ERA
Daisuke Matsuzaka’s ERA

Alfonso Soriano’s Ks – Alfonso Soriano’s walks
Marlon Byrd’s runs scored

Elvis Andrus’s wOBA
Everth Cabrera’s wOBA

Josh Hamilton home runs
Josh Johnson games started

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 13, 2010 6:41 PM EST reply actions

one for now

Jose Reyes’ steals total or 3 times the absolute value of Jay Bay’s UZR

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by JD Sussman on Mar 13, 2010 6:57 PM EST reply actions

Strasburg’s average FB veolcity vs the field (any starter)

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by JD Sussman on Mar 13, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

I'll go ahead and take Ubaldo Jimenez on that one

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by Andrew Martin on Mar 17, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Burg's been averaging about 98 in ST so far

by vivaelpujols on Mar 20, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Some more

Yanks + Mets homers
Angels + Dodgers homers

Wins by Texas teams
Wins by Florida teams

SB by the Chicago Cubs
CS by the Anaheim Angels

Intentional walks to Albert Pujols
Intentional walks to the Kansas City Royals

Troy Glaus games played
Nick Johnson games played

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 13, 2010 8:02 PM EST reply actions

Hmmm

Gold Glove Winners with a negative UZR
Combined All Stars from the Royals and Pirates

High schoolers selected with supplemental first round picks in the June draft
College players selected with supplemental first round picks in the June draft

Ian Kinsler HR + SB
Dustin Pedroia K + GIDP

Brandon Wood K + GIDP + CS
Scott Kazmir IP

Trevor Cahill K – BB
Roy Halladay IP – K

Trevor Cahill K/9
Derek Holland FIP

Nick Punto PAs
Nick Johnson PAs

Neftali Feliz + Derek Holland IP
Joba Chamberlain + Phil Hughes IP

Total Bases by A.L. leader in TB
Average by A.L. leader in avg X 1000

Vernon Wells outs made
Vernon Wells SLG

Nick Markakis outs made
Nick Markakis SLG

Nick Punto outs made
Nick Punto batting average

Justin Morneau + Joe Mauer IBB
Michael Cuddyer GIDP

League leading SH total + League leading SF total
League leading GIDP total