Help With 32 Questions Contest
I want to run the contest we did last year where everyone tries to predict which one of a pair of choices will produce the larger number. Here's the full set of questions from last year, but the following were some of my favorites:
HRs by last year's SB leader, Willy Taveras
SBs by last year's HR leader, Ryan HowardJavier Vazquez's ERA
Javier Vazquez's FIP1000 times Jack Cust's AVG
Combined Runs by Derek Jeter and Brian RobertsMost runs scored by one team in any game
Most caught stealings by any one playerWorld Series won by AL East Teams
World Series won by any NL team
What I need is help coming up with this year's questions. In my opinion, the best questions address popular storylines or hot debates, have symmetry, show creativity, and present two options that are equally likely to "win". So, please share your awesome ideas in the comments; they're much appreciated.
(To head off the obviously related question, I'm about 2/3 of the way through scoring last year's contest and will have results "soon".) Results are in!
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31 comments
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Comments
I'm going to use an imbeded form to automatically record ballots in a spreadsheet this year, which will make scoring a lot easier.
And it will keep ballots private until voting closes.
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I also think I'll have one open-ended question as a tie-breaker, where people will submit a number and closest wins.
Something like “Angels wins + Ben Zobrist wRAA – Max Sherzer strikeouts”
Feel free to propose ideas for that question, too.
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Also (I'm on a roll)...
Remember that the tie-breaker for individual questions goes to whichever option was picked by the fewest number of people. So if we have at least a handful of questions where the likelihood of a tie is decent, it will be fun to try to predict how others will vote and if it’s worth going with the less likely option in order to also win the ties.
There was one tie in last year’s contest: there were two MVP/CY repeat winners (Pujols, Lincecum) and two first-timers (Mauer, Greinke). Since fewer people picked the first-timers, those people were credited with correct picks.
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Some ideas...
Been a longtime reader, but first time posting here.
Erik Bedard games started
Felix Hernandez wins
Mike Lowell home runs
Mike Lowell GIDPs
Number of times Milton Bradley is caught stealing
Number of times Milton Bradley is fined
Chipper Jones games played
Chipper Jones OPS+
Tim Wakefield K/9
Tim Wakefield wild pitches
Toronto wins
Baltimore wins
Home runs by Adam Dunn
Absolute value of Adam Dunn’s UZR/150
Above .500 teams in the AL West
Above .500 teams in the AL East
Wins by AL Central Champ
Wins by Third Place team in AL East
Jacoby Ellsbury’s UZR
Zero
Russell Branyan’s HR
Russell Branyan’s Days on DL
Brandon Webb’s GS
15
Mariners UZR
Rays UZR
Adrian Beltre’s HR
Curtis Granderson’s HR
Adrian Beltre’s HR
1.5 times Adrian Beltre’s UZR
Bobby Cox Ejections
Chone Figgins HR + Jack Wilson HR
I'm sure I'll think of more. For now:
Jeff Francoeur on base average plus .100
Carlos Beltran on base average.
Carlos Lee home runs plus stolen bases.
Juan Pierre home runs plus stolen bases.
Andruw Jones 2010 batting average times 100.
Andruw Jones 2010 opening day weight (pounds).
Carlos Silva runs saved [(5-RA)*IP]/9.
Peter Moylan home runs allowed.
Jonathan Broxton strikeouts.
Oliver Perez strikeouts.
Albert Pujols fWAR.
Sum of the second and third most valuable Cardinals’ fWAR.
Roy Halladay strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Derek Lowe strikeouts per 9 innings.
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by PWHjort on Mar 13, 2010 2:44 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for the Pujols one
And for saying fWAR instead of WAR. Although with Holliday and Wainwright and Rasmus and Molina and Carp, that should be a no brainer.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 13, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Rec
for the Andrew Jones one
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Okay
RIch Harden’s IP
Ben Sheet’s IP
Mike Napoli’s innings played at C
Jeff Mathis’s innings played at C
Chris Davis Ks
Mark Reynolds Ks
J.A. Happ’s FIP – J.A. Happ’s ERA
Ricky Nolasco’s ERA – Ricky Nolasco’s FIP
Cliff Lee’s homers allowed + walks allowed
Carlos Lee’s strikeouts
Steven Strasburg’s wins
Adam Dunn’s GIDPs
Franklin Gutierrez’s UZR
Adam Dunn’s UZR times negative 1
Curtis Granderson’s Contact %
Ichiro’s O-Contact %
Joe Mauer’s LD%
Michael Young’s LD%
Elvis Andrus SBs + Julio Borbon SBs
Chone Figgins SBs + Ichiro SBs
Rec
Love the Dunn UZR one
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Joel Pineiro’s GB%
Derek Lowe’s GB%
Mariano Rivera saves
Alex Rodriguez HRs
Buster Posey innings at catcher
Every other Giants’ innings at catcher
Jason Heyward games played
Steven Strasburg’s IP
Neftali Feliz’s average FB velocity
Tim Wakefield’s average FB velocity + 25
Nick Johnson’s OBP
Hideki Matsui’s SLG
Also
Total days of Milton Bradley suspensions
Number of Lou Piniella ejections
Albert Pujols SLG
Yuniesky Betancourt OPS
Colby “Colbyashi” Lewis’s ERA
Daisuke Matsuzaka’s ERA
Alfonso Soriano’s Ks – Alfonso Soriano’s walks
Marlon Byrd’s runs scored
Elvis Andrus’s wOBA
Everth Cabrera’s wOBA
Josh Hamilton home runs
Josh Johnson games started
one for now
Jose Reyes’ steals total or 3 times the absolute value of Jay Bay’s UZR
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more
Strasburg’s average FB veolcity vs the field (any starter)
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I'll go ahead and take Ubaldo Jimenez on that one
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Learn about Batting Metrics
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 17, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Some more
Yanks + Mets homers
Angels + Dodgers homers
Wins by Texas teams
Wins by Florida teams
SB by the Chicago Cubs
CS by the Anaheim Angels
Intentional walks to Albert Pujols
Intentional walks to the Kansas City Royals
Troy Glaus games played
Nick Johnson games played
Hmmm
Gold Glove Winners with a negative UZR
Combined All Stars from the Royals and Pirates
High schoolers selected with supplemental first round picks in the June draft
College players selected with supplemental first round picks in the June draft
Ian Kinsler HR + SB
Dustin Pedroia K + GIDP
Brandon Wood K + GIDP + CS
Scott Kazmir IP
Trevor Cahill K – BB
Roy Halladay IP – K
Trevor Cahill K/9
Derek Holland FIP
Nick Punto PAs
Nick Johnson PAs
Neftali Feliz + Derek Holland IP
Joba Chamberlain + Phil Hughes IP
Total Bases by A.L. leader in TB
Average by A.L. leader in avg X 1000
Vernon Wells outs made
Vernon Wells SLG
Nick Markakis outs made
Nick Markakis SLG
Nick Punto outs made
Nick Punto batting average
Justin Morneau + Joe Mauer IBB
Michael Cuddyer GIDP
League leading SH total + League leading SF total
League leading GIDP total
Denard Span CS
Denard Span triples
A few AL Central ones
Zack Greinke WAR
Combined WAR of all other Royals with at least 5 starts
Jason Kendall HBP x2
Jason Kendall XBH
Nick Punto OBP
Nick Punto SLG
Nick Blackburn Ks (pitching)
Delmon Young Ks (batting)
White Sox SB – CS
Jacoby Ellsbury SB – CS
Jake Peavy Ks
John Danks Ks
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Mar 14, 2010 1:09 AM EST reply actions
Wow, lots of good stuff so far, thanks everybody.
I’m finding the style of questions (stats used , calculations made) just as cool as the storylines included.
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Couple of NL West themed ones
Ubaldo Jimenez wins vs Giants
Tim Lincecum wins vs Rockies
Mark Reynolds strikeouts
Jorge De La Rosa strikeouts
Absolute value of Manny Ramirez’ UZR
Absolute value of Carlos Gonzalez’ UZR
Thanks Todd
by controlled_slide on Mar 14, 2010 11:52 AM EDT reply actions
Thought of a couple more
Matt Cain 2010 FIP
Matt Cain career FIP
NL teams with more 3B than IBB
NL teams with more IBB than 3B
Thanks Todd
by controlled_slide on Mar 14, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's one
Mets runs scored
Mets runs allowed
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Has this one come up?
Home runs hit by MLB leading team
BA of MLB trailing team * 1000
Thanks Todd
by controlled_slide on Mar 14, 2010 10:27 PM EDT reply actions
The most exciting one
Moves Dayton Moore makes in The Contest
Moves Omar Minaya makes in The Contest
Too bad there isn’t an objective way to measure this.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Mar 15, 2010 1:10 AM EDT reply actions
How about...
Jason Heyward HR
Stephen Strasburg GS

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