2010 Player Projections - Matt Wieters

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 1, 2010 10:20 PM EST

It's time another projection poll and for this one I have more of an opinion and will add it to the comments.

Standard Projections
Season	Type	G	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2010	Bill James	148	608	170	118	29	3	20	61	112	0	0	0.311
2010	CHONE	135	488	128	85	25	3	15	43	99	0	1	0.289
2010	Marcel		392	103	75	17	1	10	32	78	3	1	0.290
2010	All Fans (129)	135	573	153	103	27	3	20	58	109	2	1	0.297
2010	Other Fans (105)	135	570	152	103	27	3	19	56	109	2	1	0.296
2010	Team Fans (23)	138	586	158	104	28	3	22	66	110	1	1	0.304

Advanced Projections
Season	Type	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wOBA
2010	Bill James	10.00%	20.50%	0.381	0.484	0.865	0.173	0.361	97.7	0.378
2010	CHONE	8.80%	22.30%	0.355	0.460	0.815	0.171	0.343	69.4	0.356
2010	Marcel	8.20%	22.00%	0.350	0.428	0.779	0.138	0.346	51.2	0.342
2010	All Fans (129)	10.10%	21.20%	0.367	0.476	0.843	0.179	0.340	85.5	0.364
2010	Other Fans (105)	9.80%	21.20%	0.363	0.472	0.835	0.176	0.334	83.5	0.360
2010	Team Fans (23)	11.30%	21.20%	0.380	0.499	0.879	0.195	0.350	94.3	0.378

Value Projections
Season	Type	Batting	Fielding	Replacement	Positional	RAR	WAR
2010	All Fans (129)	16.6	1.1	19.1	10.4	47.3	4.7
2010	Other Fans (105)	15	0.9	19	10.4	45.2	4.5
2010	Team Fans (23)	23.9	2	19.5	10.6	56.1	5.6

Poll

Will Matt Wieter do better than his CHONE projection of: 135 games, 488 PA, 15HR, 0.289/0.355/0.460, 0.356 wOBA?

Better

108 votes

Same

79 votes

Worse

30 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Big difference between the Team and Other fans. A difference of over 1 WAR

Chone seems a lower on games played.

I went with even, but the fans in Baltimore seems pretty optimistic.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 1, 2010 10:42 PM EST reply actions

When looking at this in regards to a historical context, I find these numbers very generous.

When was the last time a 2 year C put up those types of numbers (.289/355/.460)? It has happened a grand total of 2 times since 1945, Brian McCann and Mike Piazza. That is out of a population of 59 guys that played 130 games in a season before the age of 26. It just seems to be a very pessimistic view, especially due to the fact of the position he plays.

If you have to bet on this one way or the other, I would easily take him not meeting that projection.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Mar 2, 2010 12:13 AM EST reply actions

He’s definitely hyped as “Mauer with Power,” though, and in Mauer’s 2nd full season he posted .347/.429/.507.

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by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 2, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions

Plus, the difference isn't all that great

1 WAR seems like a lot, but B’more fans are only projecting him for six more hits, three more home runs and ten more walks, plus slightly better defense.

by KMils on Mar 2, 2010 2:01 AM EST up reply actions

Not to pile on

But Russel Martin had a second year of .293/.374./.469
Victor Martinez’s first year playing more than 50 games was .283/.359/.492

I think there is a good chance Wieters meets these projections.

by brogshan on Mar 2, 2010 8:38 AM EST up reply actions

This is a total non-sequitur, but...

It looks like Jason Veritek’s disembodied head is trying to assist Matt Weiters in that photograph.

by jwiscarson on Mar 2, 2010 8:39 AM EST reply actions

I thought the same thing

and assumed someone had already started the “caption the photograph” game.

by Leviticus6688 on Mar 2, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

I wonder

What Pecota’s projection is. Is it wrong to post a summary of the projection that comes from a pay site? I’d think if you just put a few key numbers up it should fall under fair use. Just wondering if they still see him as Pujols behind the plate like last year.

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by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 2, 2010 9:37 AM EST reply actions

Good point.

People don’t seem to be too high on PECOTA right now though, it hasn’t been performing too hot of late, as you presumably are aware of.

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by Satchel Price on Mar 2, 2010 9:39 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I’ve heard a little about that :-)

Still curious what it says about Wieters. My favorite bookstore is being renovated, so I can’t just walk across the street and take a look. I’m not in the habit of subscription services, never really considered being a Bpro subscriber. I like the books, and have bought most of the annuals. What stops me from buying more is the size of the book – it is quite bulky. My library almost reached it’s limits two years ago, then we had a baby so instead of two offices and a bedroom our house is 2 BR and a combined office. So every book I buy has to be carefully considered for size as well as enjoyment.

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 2, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe one more year

Right now I’ve got Wieters projected – based on my community projections – at .287/.351/.455 and 3.5 WAR (getting a few PA at DH as well). It’s a touch less than CHONE has, but effectively the same.

I certainly think he could break out, but an year to make adjustments might be necessary.

Orioles blogging at www.CamdenCrazies.com.

by Daniel Moroz on Mar 2, 2010 8:34 PM EST reply actions