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A Golden Age of Third Basemen?

With the exception of Scott Rolen, the early part of the previous decade was a relative down period for the hot corner. Eric Chavez, Corey Koskie, Eric Hinske, Hank Blalock, Aubrey Huff, Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre were among those that were expected to be stars at the position long-term, but injuries derailed Chavez, Koskie and Blalock, and contact, consistency and defense issues forced Hinske and Huff to new positions while failing to totally maintain their breakout offensive performance.

Only Beltre and Ramirez really played as expected. But Beltre primarily only as a defender; his offensive performance has fluctuated from MVP-quality to league average, mostly closer to the latter. Ramirez, on the other hand, broke out with a monster season before the league figured him out, only to make the proper adjustments and re-emerge as one of the best third baseman in the game.

Other top third base prospects of the day either moved off the position, such as Mark Teixeira and Michael Cuddyer, or simply didn't develop as expected for whatever reason, such as Sean Burroughs and Drew Henson.

The position got some help when Alex Rodriguez moved to the position and Chipper Jones returned from his trip to left field, but more importantly, a major influx of quality young third baseman entered the league in the past five years. Headlined at the top are the superstars, three of the games most recognizable stars: David Wright, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman.

Star-divide

Wright has been among the best players in the game since becoming an everyday player in 2005, he's averaged 5.92 WAR in the past five years. His numbers suffered last year, but most projection system peg him for at least five wins above replacement again in 2010.

Zimmerman finally came into his own as a hitter last season, his bat catching up to his elite glove as he managed to improve his power output while becoming more selective at the plate. Put it all together and he's been worth 4.63 WAR per year in each of his first four full seasons, a number that most projection systems expect him to eclipse by a comfortable amount.

Longoria is the youngest of the group at just 24, but he could end up being the most special player in the group. Combine a sparkling glove with big time power and a developing approach at the plate that's already pretty good, and he's been worth 12.5 WAR over his two seasons with the Rays, despite only playing in 122 games in his rookie season.

What you're looking at here are three of the best young third baseman to enter the game in a long time, three established superstars that excel in all facets, all of whom are 27 or younger, with two guys that won't be 25 for essentially the entire 2010 season.

But if any of these guys falter, there's good reason to believe that the position's depth should make up for it. Rodriguez should stick around at third base for a few more years, and other veterans like Jones, Rolen, Beltre, Ramirez, Chone Figgins,and Michael Young should continue to play the position well through the earlier part of the decade.

More importantly, other young guys have emerged beyond the Wright/Zimmerman/Longoria power trio. Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds are two of the most unique players to come along in a while, and few things would give me more pleasure than knowing that big Panda would be manning the hot corner for most of his career while one of the best hitters in the league was also the game's most prodigious strikeout hitter. 

Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andy LaRoche have emerged as solid regulars that could close in on stardom if they can take strides offensively, Kouzmanoff needs to become more patient while LaRoche is still waiting for his power potential to consistently come up in game situations. And there's always Alex Gordon, who really shouldn't be written off just because he initially hasn't lived up to his hype, he was already a solid everyday player before his disappointing, injury-filled 2009 campaign. (My apologies to Ian Stewart and Brandon Wood, I knew I would miss some guys.You belong in this post. Thanks to the commenters for pointing it out. )

That's without even going into the best third base prospects in the minors, such as Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters, Matt Dominguez, Josh Bell, and Lonnie Chisenhall.. Not to mention other guys like Wilmer Flores and Mike Moustakas, along with players that could end up at the position like Tim Beckham, Carlos Triunfel, Brett Lawrie and Todd Frazier. There's no lack of potential impact talent at the corner in the coming years, to put it one way.

The hot corner has certainly seen its fair share of stars, but I think that we're looking at the best crop of third basemen in the game as long as I've been alive, probably since the days of Wade Boggs, George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Pedro Guerrero, Craig Nettles and Bill Madlock.

Oh, and while I'm on the topic, did I mention that the consensus top position playerin college baseball, Anthony Rendon of Rice, also happens to be a third baseman?

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Gordon Beckham

Don’t forget to include Gordon Beckham in the list of young star 3B.

by mikej62 on Feb 9, 2010 2:58 PM EST reply actions  

he plays second now

"A brief but trenchant analysis of Scott Podsednik

He’s dogshit."
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST

by U-God on Feb 9, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

do Dayan Viciedo or Danny Valencia fit here?

by scatterbrian on Feb 9, 2010 4:33 PM EST reply actions  

I think that there are a lot of questions about both of those guys

Viciedo probably won’t stick around at third much longer anyways, but the lack of walks (4.3% walk rate) and power (.111 ISO) were awfully concerning in AA last year. Honestly, Brent Morel might be the better 3B prospect in that organization now.

As for Valencia, after posting a 2.8% walk rate in his first stint in AAA, he’s going to need to show some improvement in his approach before getting a shot in the majors.

Right now, I think that the vast, vast majority of evaluators wouldn’t put those two in the same categories as the guys I wrote about above, like Vitters and Flores.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 9, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Vitters's plate discipline isn't exactly Bondsian either...

I grant you that he’s a better hitter for average than those guys, but he’s really not a first-tier third base prospect at all. Everything is pretty much going to have to go right for him to be better than roster filler.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 9, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

not being an ass

but what is the attraction to vitters? i’m not saying this about you in particular, but i don’t understand why he’s regarded as highly as he is.

"A brief but trenchant analysis of Scott Podsednik

He’s dogshit."
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST

by U-God on Feb 9, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not a scout

but the guy apparently has some truly special ability to make hard contact. Keith Law, someone I’m a huge fan of, said this of him in his rankings, which had Vitters at #30: “Vitters has everything he needs to become an impact hitter at the major league level — except patience… He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage.” The rest of it is on insider but it’s pretty much worth it in my opinion, at least.

Basically, his ability as a hitter is truly special for someone of his age, and if his power develops and he develops some semblance of plate discipline, he’ll become one of the better hitters in the game, while being good enough to stay at third. He’s clearly a better prospect than guys like Viciedo or Valencia, and only behind probably Alvarez and Chisenhall among 3B prospects, at least in my opinion.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 9, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I wonder...

If this golden age has anything to do with an importance of defensive play. Consider that a lot of the young players, both in the bigs, and on their way, were originally slated at another position. Notably, at middle infield.

Today, teams are willing to put out a weak bat for their middle infield if if means a lot of saved runs. Further, the is also improving their hot corner as it allows for a superior athlete, that would be stretched at third to play an “easier” position.

Take for example current hitter prospect lists. It would come as no surprise to see fewer than 6 middle infield prospects among the top 100 prospects in baseball on most lists. And consider who the top middle infield prospects are, athletic players who may or may not stick at the position, OR, players who are more glove than bat and wouldn’t stick at many other positions.

While the middle infield is traditionally a weaker hitting spot, I think we are in the midst of a major shift which will make the middle infield terribly weak (no more Nomar’s, Tejada’s, or Kent’s) and the corners ridiculously strong, where players like Blanks are moved to the outfield.

by bheikoop on Feb 10, 2010 2:41 AM EST reply actions  

No love for Ian Stewart?

People who know much better than I do think his .228 average and obscene strikeout numbers were the result of bad luck and inexperience, and that he could be a genuine superstar soon.

by biondino on Feb 10, 2010 6:20 AM EST reply actions  

Ian Stewart is always forgot

Has anyone seen Stewart play third? He will win a gold glove or two before his career is over, and he will be a .260+ 30 HR hitter. Nobody seems to mind when Renyolds K 200+ times as long as he hits Home Runs.

A Rockies fan living in St. Louis "Cardinals HELL" GO ROCKIES!

by denverfan12 on Feb 10, 2010 8:44 AM EST up reply actions  

damn I was hoping I wouldn't forget anyone

He’s absolutely one of the better young guys in the game at that position.

But the strikeouts weren’t a result of bad luck really, he’s got a 70.9% contact rate for his career (league average: 80.6%), and a career K rate of 33.9% (league average: 19.7%) and he wasn’t exactly a low-strikeout hitter in the minors either. There’s definitely the biggest issue with his game.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 10, 2010 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Brandon Wood

What about a case for Brandon Wood (25 yrs old) at 3B in your interesting prospects bit? He’s kinda fallen off the radar prospect wise as he’s been stuck behind Orlando Cabrera/Erick Aybar at SS and Chone Figgins at 3B, but will get his shot on the Angels this year. He could be similar to Ian Stewart.

by TheQuestforMerlin on Feb 10, 2010 10:15 AM EST reply actions  

Are they really going to give him a chance?

They still need a leadoff hitter unless they’re going to put Kendrick or Abreu there, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Izturis got a lot of time at third base. I still wish that Wood would get a shot at shortstop somewhere.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 10, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he's being primed for it

I think so, Scioscia has said a number of nice things about Wood recently which is always a Sciscia sign that he is ready to give him the 1st shot. Although Scioscia is notoriously tough (but fair) with young players, he really likes them to step up, win the job. As Kendrick’s demotion for a small period to AAA to work on his swing last season shows.

If Wood starts out strongly then Izturis won’t be seeing that many at bats at 3B. I’m expecting Wood to get around 450 when all is said and done.

I expect to see Aybar (hoping he continues to show improved OBP and plate discipline) and Izturis (as he fills in for 2B or 3B) as lead-off hitters for the year. If they both struggle or if Izturis is not in the line-up enough, then probably Bobby Abreu.

If Aybar wasn’t as impressive (particularly if you watch the Angels, and more so than the bare stats would suggest) then I would be screaming for Wood at SS too. If Wood struggles at the Angels he could see an opportunity at another club for sure though. His glove scouts pretty well.

by TheQuestforMerlin on Feb 10, 2010 10:32 AM EST reply actions  

Apologies

This was meant as a reply to SP above

by TheQuestforMerlin on Feb 10, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, they shouldn't move Aybar off the position for Wood

but Aybar’s ability to get on base is totally dependent on his batting average right now, so honestly I think he more so belongs in the bottom of the order.

I hope that Wood gets a shot in LA, the Angels could use his power and he could end up being a really good hitter.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 10, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

1975-1978

I was thinking of a previous time with so many good third basemen. That was the era that came up.

  • Mike Schmidt
  • George Brett
  • Pete Rose
  • Bill Madlock
  • Ron Cey
  • Graig Nettles
  • Buddy Bell

I think you can make a good case that the current crop of third basemen is better than that group was.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Feb 10, 2010 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

Which is exactly the point that I was bringing up

This appears to be a truly special era for third basemen, if Zimmerman, Wright and Longoria maintain their brilliance.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 10, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Going Back A Little Bit Further Than You Were

You mentioned the 1980’s third basemen. Schmidt, Brett, Madlock, and Nettles were on that list. I wanted to go back to 1975-1978 when Pete Rose was playing third and Ron Cey and Graig Nettles were both in their prime. This crop of third basemen could very well be better than the ones we saw back in the 1970’s and 1980’s.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Feb 10, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely.

I just like Wade Boggs a lot.

The guys rising up at third base look awfully exciting. You just gotta watch out, because one of those guys could go all Eric Chavez on everyone and fall off a cliff.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 10, 2010 2:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

from what I've heard

Mike Moustakas may have to move off third

by OsandRoyals on Feb 15, 2010 4:33 PM EST reply actions  

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