The Pitching DiamondView is here.
The cost of all great combined statistics is both understanding and context. Gross Domestic Product, for example, offers a combined look of various economic measures of consumption, investment, and spending, but overlooks sustainability, quality, and distribution. It's a nice stat that those that understand can glean meaning from, but generally doesn't help the average person understand what is really happening, other than "bigger is better, right?"
Having exhausted what little knowledge my Economics for Administration class and risky use of wikipedia provides, we can look at any statistical approach and see somewhat glaring omissions or oversights in combined one-for-all statistics. Still, the natural human tendency is to look for the one combination of all things known into a single description that tells us everything we need to know about a particular subject. For the NFL, we have QB Rating (ugh), for Physics, string theory, and for social networkers, the still unnamed "# of unwanted comments from ancillary friends per post."
The same need exists for baseball fans. The conclusion I came to after some extended consideration (beer and videogames), is that perhaps the best way to describe some total package of talent is visually, rather than numerically.
Thus, the DiamondView was born.
The Pitching DiamondView tells exactly what kind of pitcher we're looking at.
The DiamondView, as you may already know, is a visual way of describing the classic 5-tool set of hitting, power, running speed, arm strength, and fielding. Combining arm strength and fielding into one point on the graph, the results are something that works for both sabermetricians and the average baseball fan as a single-view tool to understand the type of player he or she is observing. The benefit (and goal), other than looking at the pretty colors, is the ability to look at an unlabled DiamondView and be able to guess which position that player plays. The cost, and why we're here, is the glaring omission of the other half of the game: pitching.
The Pitching DiamondView is this author's attempt to fill that need.
Development
The first step was establishing exactly what needs to be observed of pitchers to determine his "type" while remaining somewhat sabermetrically sound. To my knowledge, there is no "5-tool set" for pitchers, so I had to approach it from the perspective of best data available while capturing the biggest picture possible.
So, what do we need to know?
1. Command: Can this pitcher strike people out?
2. Control*: Can this pitcher prevent walks?
3. Batted-ball: When a pitched-ball is hit, where does it go?
4. Durability: How long can this pitcher last in-game and throughout the season?
*I do realize I'm taking some liberty with the definitions of both Command and Control, but I believe both are intrinsically linked, so I'll explain. For this purpose, I'm using the idea that command is the ability to throw strikes, while control is the ability to stay ahead in the count and keep batters off-base. If this is too controversial, brings my audience to tears, or is a catalyst for torch-bearing baseball purist zombies to tear down my door, I'd be happy but reluctant to change it to some other less alliterative word(s).
The answers to these questions are as follows: we can measure the ability to strike people out with K/9 and the ability to prevent walks with BB/9. Easy enough (see above). Batted-ball is the question of whether the ball goes up (fly ball) or goes down (ground ball), and sure enough, we have a stat for that - Ground Ball / Fly Ball ratio (G/F). Durability is an interesting one, because the best measure of what a pitcher can do is by looking at what he just did, so to properly capture starters that go 8 innings and relievers that barely get one, we'll go with the easily acquired Innings Pitched (IP). This obviously overlooks some latent ability of young relievers attempting to get a starting role, but I argue that talent usually rises to the top and starters almost always make themselves known.
The results are: K/9, BB/9, G/F, and IP.
Processing
Visually, the method has already been established with the evolving DiamondView for batters. It takes the four statistics and puts them into two perpendicular axes in an attempt to output a describable "player shape," and it works. We'll stick with that.
For the data, I'm using the award-winning Fangraphs.com database and combining several pages of data for both starters and relievers. The result is a shockingly large combination of data that I've pared down to 222 players from the 2009 season*. Each player then has a percentile fuction applied to his data set that tells us exactly where he ranks in each skill set.
K/9 is arranged top from the top down, with the player(s) with the highest at 100 and the player(s) with the lowest at zero. A negative function is applied to BB/9 and the set is then arranged from least negative to most negative and shows the player with the smallest BB/9 at 100. GB/FB is arranged from biggest to smallest, and the visual result is nice--the better the groundball pitcher, the lower his DiamondView will stretch as it approaches 100. Finally, durability is IP arranged from most to least, with the most prolific and longest-lasting starters at 100 and LOOGYs and one-out relievers closer to zero.**
*For projection purposes (not attempted here), a different data set will be required--probably CHONE. I have yet to see G/F on any projection but believe the ratio is more of a career asset (or liability) and will probably use each player's career number for that point of the graph. Suggestions for this aspect welcome and wanted.
**The visual assumption will be that the larger the durability, the better. Similar to the G/F ratio, the result will be something that tells a story instead of necessarily making a conclusion. Combined with the other stats, the result is something that truly tells us everything we need to know about what type of pitcher we're looking at.
The Fun Part.
Preambles aside, I present to you the DiamondView Composite Pitcher Evaluation. It's a visual representation of the most relevant stats available that tells a relatively complete story of pitcher type. It attempts to answer the questions: "Is he a starter or a reliever? Can I count on him to strike a guy out? Can I count on him not to load up the bases? If I bring him in with someone already on base, will he give up a pop-fly or a ground out?"
For presentation purposes I chose a few players at or near the top of the each metric. Take a look:
AJ Burnett is a decent starter who gets a fair number of strikeouts but tends to walk a number of batters. Compared to his peers, his batted pitches are just as likely to pop up as they are to be grounders.
Derek Lowe is a classic ground ball specialist that, according to 2009 results, rarely gets strikeouts but eats a high number of innings.
Mariano's DiamondView not only shows the value of the presentation for identifying relievers, but his value to the team as well. He strikes a ton of guys out and induces a high amount of grounders--and the last time he walked somebody was probably some grandma while crossing the street (all Yankees are clean-cut good samaritans, remember?).
Rafael Soriano looks much like we would expect--a high powered strike out guy that creates a lot of pop-ups...and home runs.
Zack Greinke is my favorite player in all of baseball and he should be yours too. He strikes out almost everybody and rarely walks anybody--all while going further into the game and pitching more innings than nearly everybody in the league. That command and control comes at a cost, though. He's vulnerable to pop-ups, and in the wrong house, the long ball.
Let me know what you think. I know there has been quite a bit of anticipation for this from both of us. If we can establish the meaning of the visual together and have a shared experience in its interpretation, I think we really have something quite valuable. I look forward to your thoughts and comments. Have at it.
I'd like to thank Satchel Price and Walter Fulbright for their consultation on this project, and to everybody else here at BtB for their continued support. Together, we can all bring a deeper understanding of sabermetrics and make them easier for everybody to understand.
5 recs |
75 comments
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Comments
Very cool.
Good work, team!
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 8, 2010 3:05 PM EST via mobile reply actions
More like, "Good work, Justin!"
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 8, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
He gives partial credit
To you and Walter, so I will too :)
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 8, 2010 3:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Just to clarify
A groundball pitcher will have a batted-ball percentile closer to 100, while a flyball pitcher will one closer to 0?
On the whole, I like this very much. Awesome work, Justin.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
Yes.
And the part he said about how
“the more groundballs, the lower the diamondview will stretch”
means that the actual shape will stretch down (get it, groundballs are low to the ground?) thus the number will be bigger.
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 8, 2010 3:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Or at least that's how I interpreted it...
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 8, 2010 3:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I like
Are you going to do team-by-team looks with these, or am I asking too much? Anyway, great job. Thank you for this.
by controlled_slide on Feb 8, 2010 3:18 PM EST reply actions
Whoa whoa slow down mister.
;)
Let’s see what happens with this. I can tell you that I am excited.
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badass stuff
I imagine Aaron Cook is going to look pretty close to Lowe, but maybe a hit on Durability, seeing how the man just keeps getting weird freak injuries.
REALLY want to see Ubaldo’s.
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I dunno if durability truly means “durability”. like he said with command and control, the words are not representing their literal meaning. that said, it would take a hit but durability is just basically a way of saying “innings pitched”. that said, just looking at these 4 and looking at his IPs last year, he would fall around a 70. pretty much average for a starter (maybe a little below)
As noted above,
injuries limit playing time. Thus, low durability.
(it means exactly what it says)
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Love this approach, excellent excellent work.
The labels may need some tweaking though. The graphic isn’t as self-explanatory as the batting ones. If someone looks at the graphic without the aid of your explanations, it may not be very clear what they represent. Maybe even throwing an “IP”, “K/9”, “BB/9” in parenthesis would help.
Really awesome work though.
I think this is a very salient point.
I will take this feedback and, combined with some stuff below, use it for the forces of good.
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Very cool.
Any chance we could get the actual values (IP, BB/9, K/9, GB/FB) posted below like you did with some of the hitting charts?
Like it, but in my mind command = control
I also intuitively thought that Batted Ball means BABIP, not gb%.
FWIW, Out of the Park baseball uses: Stuff (k/9), Control (bb/9), and Movement (hr/9). I don’t like “movement,” but stuff seems like a decent way to label K/9.
Durability’s a great additional measure to use, at least for starters.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Agreed
on both the command = control and the batted ball.
I like Stuff for the Ks
by Dan Turkenkopf on Feb 8, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I concur.
Personally, I’d rather not have words substituted for specific measurements, but they might help for the wider audience you’re targeting.
Maybe include both “Stuff” and “K/9” somewhere on the graphic.
And, uh, these are pretty good ;)
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I like Stuff for K's as well
But noting the statistic used along with the label would probably make things easier to understand from the get go. I’ve never really thought of command and control as the same thing, but I don’t really think that command directly translates to strikeouts nearly as much as raw stuff does.
Adding the specified statistics used along with the label on the graphics would probably make the graphs easier to understand with a quick glance.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 8, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
STUFF (K/9)
CONTROL (BB/9)
BATTED-BALL (G/F)
DURABLITY (IP)
If you all like this, I’ll run with it. Post a quote from your favorite TV show to confirm your approval.
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Scratch that, vote for this:
STUFF (K/9)
CONTROL (BB/9)
GROUND BALL (G/F)
DURABLITY (IP)
If you all like this, I’ll run with it. Post your favorite character from any film, ever, to confirm.
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I think that's a definite upgrade from the current labels
And it really depends on whether we’re talking about favorite character based on funniness or badassness. I’ve always loved Malcolm McDowell’s portrayal of Alex DeLarge.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 8, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
I like these labels much better.
You understand that if we don’t find a stiff out here, we leave a fresh one.
-Eddie Dane
I will give my support
By posting Purple Row’s favorite character as voted on by the people.
by controlled_slide on Feb 8, 2010 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
I've always loved Roger Rabbit.
I know that makes me weird, and I’m okay with that.
I think I remember someone suggesting that the pitching DiamondView could use the components of FIP, but I actually find this is an improvement over that suggestion. I much prefer GB/FB rate as opposed to HR%.
As a side-note, I remember someone at Lookout Landing making a post about how K/9 and BB/9 can be misleading due to their dependence upon innings-pitched, which sorta hides the numbers of batters faced. Does anyone think the “hidden” part of K/9 and BB/9 is bad enough to warrant using batters faced, rather than innings pitched?
Nuke LaLoosh?
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Easy.

“My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the next.”
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by Justin Bopp on Feb 9, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sounds like we have two issues -
Obviousness of what is being charted (vs. the batter stats as noted above) and terminology. I knew that would probably be an issue.
Question – Is “stuff” any more descriptive than “control?” Perhaps I can scrap both command and control (of which I maintain there’s a difference!) and switch it with “Strikiness” and “Walkiness”? Btw, I always thought of stuff as # of pitches with movement.
I think the best bet is to either keep it as is and provide a key, or changing the name of each category to be slightly more descriptive.
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I know some baseball guys disagree, but "command" has always sounded too much like "control" to me.
To me, “control” and BB/9 go hand in hand and stuff and K/9 go hand in hand. Might be worth taking a vote, though.
I also think “batted ball” should be changed to something where more of it is obviously a good thing. And the skill being called good here is inducing ground balls. So it should be something like “inducing grounder” (but, you know, better sounding).
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Can anybody think of a better way to say “ability to induce grounders” that would be obvious to nearly anybody watching a baseball game?
Maybe just “Ground Ball” and leave it at that?
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Derek Loweness.
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by Mike Rogers on Feb 8, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm fully on board with what's being shown, btw.
Certainly missing the HR/FB skill, but I’d rather have all four of these things than HR/FB.
Maybe combine into HR/PA? Just thinking aloud here…
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Interesting thoughts that I mulled over in the past 5-6 months or so.
…and much like the Batter DV, I kept coming back to wanting to prevent the overlap of meaning. In this case, HR/PA would probably be somewhat already measured in G/F.
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Yes.
But what are we trying to convey here? How different pitchers get their value? How different pitchers have different styles? Something else? I’m honestly not sure, but the first would speak more for HR/PA and the second would speak for GB%. Ground balls are good for two reasons. One, they aren’t fly balls and therefore don’t leave the park. Two, they can be GIDPs. The first is more important than the second.
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I think "Power" would be a better word for strikeouts
Aaron Cook has good stuff, but he doesn’t necessarily strike a lot of guys out. When you say “Power Pitcher”, you know it’s someone like Grienke or Verlander.
Whiffage would also be acceptable.
I’m also not sure I agree that grounders are inherently more valuable than flies. Grounders are better than flies to the outfield, but an infield fly is better than both.
by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 8, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
I like power. the guys who strike a lot of guys out have good pitching power (not always just speed but offspeed pitches that get you too).
so if it was power, control, ground ball, and longevity I would like it better…
I am saying longevity sounds better than durability. with longevity I think about how long a pitcher lasts, which is what “durability” is supposed to tell us. with durability I think about injuries and how healthy a guy is.
Longevity means length of life.
Durability specifically recalls images of blown-out elbows and shoulders for exactly that reason—guys that can’t pitch more than one inning every three days have none of it.
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To me "power" implies velocity. And strikeouts are actually more about movement than velocity.
I like “stuff” because, to me, it includes both power and movement. Of course, there’s more to strikeouts, like sequencing and control, but hey, I’m lucky if I get past “hey, look, pretty picture” when I look at these.
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I agree with Sky here
Power seems to imply pure velo while stuff can include a wider array of characteristics. And pure velocity doesn’t translate to strikeouts as much as raw stuff does. I’d stick with Stuff.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 9, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
Zack Greinke has a power slider. Johan Santana has a power changeup. Adam Wainwright has a power curve.
Any pitch that gets people to strike out a lot is referred to as a power pitch.
Whiff rates are probably the most interesting but those can be tricky to add up.
by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 9, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
MOAR DIAMONDVIEW, K THX.
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by KennyWang on Feb 8, 2010 5:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I would prefer K/total batters faced and BB/total batters faced but I have this same problem with Fangraphs, as well. So no fault of your own.
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They are here, but I definitely understand the want of taking this from the same site. I just wish FG would add K/PA and BB/PA along with the /9 stats.
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reminds me of
rich lederer’s annual series of categorizing pitchers by K%, BB% and GB%, at baseball analysts.
SABBERMETTRICS.
Great job analyzing that, I’m starting to get saber-metrics and all that follows it. I guess now when it comes to stats, the pitchers will see what they’ll need to work on and what to do.
Git 'r' done
Here are my suggestions, basically what Justin said with a few differences
1) Control = BB/9
2) Stuff = K/9
3) Durability = IP
4) Batted ball = run value of batted balls
I think doing that would be much more effective than just using BABIP or GB/FB, as run values on batted balls would incorporate all aspects of batted balls including home runs allowed.
Or, you could use expected run values of batted balls by just using the league average run values for each (GB, FB, LD, PU).
I can calculate both of those for you if tell me what format to put it in.
I hesitate using value metrics
because no other stat is a value metric in any of the diamondview points. I certainly see the value (in value), but that’s not really the purpose. The better visual explanation, in my opinion, is to tell the viewer whether the pitcher is a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball pitcher—and I think GB/FB serves that purpose well.
That said, I absolutely see your point but not sure if it meets the current goals. A visual value metric for all players is on my to-do list for the year. It would have to be different enough or enlightening enough to justify its creation, but could be pretty cool. More on that later.
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The run value isn't meant to be value, it's meant to show the relative ranking of BIP effectiveness
GB/FB is informative, but it leaves a ton out, namely home runs, line drives, pop ups. BABIP or xBABIP is basically the same thing as run value on BIP or xrun value on BIP, excepts it’s back to the stone age of batting average.
I think that's a neat idea by vivaelpujols.
I’m fine with GB% too, but I like this too. Gives more information (in a way), though it is admittedly less approachable to someone not into this stuff than the simple rate at which gb’s are given up.
I write at:
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Then you'll be ignoring home runs
GB% is usually a pretty good indicator of ability to not allow home runs. I’d say that’s more important than the run values of BIP.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 9, 2010 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
No, it wouldn't be ignoring home runs
BIP != batted balls.
The run value of a fly ball or line drive would include home runs.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Seems to me that the durability factor for relievers ought to be relative to other relievers and not to the whole population.
Same thing for starters now that I think about it.
I'm curious who comes closest to "filling up his diamond"
I’m gonna guess Doc.
by controlled_slide on Feb 8, 2010 11:41 PM EST reply actions
I like it, but....
I mean, I think the stat would be better with pitch f/x stats like Contact%, Zone% and Swing% would be much better here. But, I at least think you should change “Batted Ball” to xBABIP because this really shows the meaning of what you’re trying to accomplish, which pitcher is the best at limiting the batted-balls to easy ones like GB and PU and doesn’t let up many HR. This stat shows you what the pitchers BABIP should’ve been based on his peripherals and is therefore what you should use for “Batted Balls”
One thing Justin's trying to do with these is introduce non-saber fans to the website and saber-stuff in general.
So while many stats mentioned are “better”, they aren’t better at welcoming new fans. Anyone knows what GB% is and then they start thinking about why it’s included and start thinking about how important it is to keep the ball in the yard and how GBs are a great way to do that. But then, they, wonder, can’t a FB pitcher also limit HRs and aren’t IFFB also pretty good? And by that point, they’re hooked (they’re one of us, mwahaha). But if you start out with stuff that complex, you get fewer people joining the party.
For people interested in xBABIP and run values, etc., these images probably aren’t aimed at you.
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Awesome
This is cool stuff, Justin. I haven’t read all the comments, but the use of the word “Command” for strikeouts kind of confused me, at least initially (especially with “Control” featured, as well). Beyond that, though, this is great.
three ratio stats
and IP = durability. the three ratio stats point at effectiveness.
durability has it’s own issue with starters and relievers having different roles, and doesn’t separate the loopers from the carpenters in effectiveness.
would a TBF / IP better show how efficiently a pitcher “mowed them down”, regardless of his role? would give you a fourth ratio stat. or show the “extra batters faced” past the minimum batters per IP? just a suggestion.
Definately think K% and BB% makes more sense for this.
If you face 100 batters and strike out 20 and those 100 batters are over 30 innings in one case, and 31 innings in the second case — should you punish the second pitcher simply because the defense turned 3 more of those batters into outs than the defense behind the first pitcher? I’d rate both of those pitchers as equivalent strike-out pitchers, even though one has a K/9 of 5.8 and one has a K/9 of 6.0 — they both struck out 20% of the batters they faced.
Same goes for walks, except now we’re talking about correllation:
Suppose two pitchers both face 100 batters, strike out 20. One does it over 30 innings because he walked 4 while the other does it over 31 innings because he walked 1 and the other 3 turned into outs.
K/9 goes down for the 31 inning pitcher, and the BB/9 goes up. I’d say that we should see the K% stay the same (same number of batters struck out relatively) and see the BB% go up independantly.
So — current values for these two pitchers
A) 30IP, 20K, 4BB, 67 OUTS, 9 HITS = 6 K/9, .3 BB/9, 30 IP
B) 31IP, 20K, 1BB, 70 OUTS, 9 HITS = 5.8 K/9, 1.2BB/9, 31 IP
Those lines are misleading in that both are equivalent strike-out pitchers on a per occurrance basis — as in, each gives you a 20% chance for a strike out in any given plate appearance. However, because Pitcher B walks more, he gets less credit for the strikeouts. I think a better line would be:
A) 30IP, 20K, 4BB, 70 OUTS, 6 HITS = 20% K, 1% BB, 30 IP
B) 31IP, 20K, 1BB, 73 OUTS, 6 HITS = 20% K, 4% BB, 31 IP
That shows you that both are effectively the same strike-out pitcher, one walks more than the other — given equivalent defenses.
by Trickman on Feb 10, 2010 10:36 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yes, K/9 isn't great
However, the difference with that and K% is soooo little that it’s hardly worth fretting about.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Baselines for IP
Love it, love it, love it. One suggested change —
use different baselines for SP / non-SP (RP). Mariano Rivera could throw 80 IP which is high usage, but the graph won’t reflect that because 80 IP is an unreliable starter (rather than a horse of an RP).
I think it already does
Which would explain why Rafael Soriano is listed at 57% in that category.
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 12, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think for batted ball
(GB+Popup)% would be more effective. Popups are basically strikeouts after all.
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 11, 2010 6:20 PM EST reply actions
although given that this is well known
I feel like I’m missing a rather obvious reason for not including popups into the GB and out of the FB
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 11, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Visually
I’d want the IP, K/9, BB/9 etc in white right below the Command, Control. Not sure how it would fit, but that’s exactly where I’d want it.
I’d also consider adding hit by pitches to BB/9 because not hitting a batter is an important part of control

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