DiamondView 2.010: Los Angeles Dodgers
by Justin Bopp on Feb 5, 2010 11:00 AM EST
in Graph of the Day
26 comments
If you've been paying attention to this series (or are somewhat of a masochist), you know that the 2009 DiamondView series ended with the Los Angeles Dodgers with calls for something a little less in the past and a something a little more in the future, predictive if possible. One thing lead to another, and blammo, the DiamondView 2.010 series was born.
Rather than go straight back to LA, the new series stayed in the NL West and began with the Colorado Rockies, and continued with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the San Francisco Giants, and the San Diego Padres. To make each of these even better, we invited our favorite writers from each team site to provide guest commentary for each highlighted player, and the combined results have been absolutely fantastic.
It is with that in mind that the final DiamondView stop in the NL West is with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I couldn't be more proud of how this compares to the 2009 version. It really is impressive if you look at both side-by-side. On top of all that sweetness, I am excited to announce that one of my absolute favorite writers on all of SBN, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, is here to offer guest commentary for the Dodgers edition. His comments follow each graphic. Let's begin.
Kemp is the envy of mere mortals. He has power and speed, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and topped off his offseason by dating a pop star. He made great strides in 2009, but 2010 looks to be The Year of The Bison, as Kemp moves up the ladder of stardom.
C - Russell Martin
Among the many things lost when the Yankees moved from Yankee Stadium II to Yankee Stadium III was Russell Martin's power. Heading into his second straight All-Star game in 2008, at the previous home of the Yankees, Martin had a career line of .289/.373/.450, with one home run every 38 PA. In the season and a half since then, Martin is a shell of his former self, hitting .253/.358/.331 with a homer every 85 PA. A rebound by Martin is sorely needed by the Dodgers if they plan to win their third straight division crown.
1B - James Loney
Loney has struggled mightily at Dodger Stadium, which has dragged his overall production down into the nearly-unacceptable-for-first-base realm, but on the road he remains a productive hitter (.309/.387/.475 on the road in 2009; .320/.375/.524 career). Fun fact: between August 2008 and September 2009, Loney went 343 plate appearances without hitting a home run at Dodger Stadium.
His best asset is his plate discipline, which was intact (48 walks / 44 strikeouts) in the Pacific Coast League despite his otherwise subpar offensive season. When evaluating his 2009 season, keep in mind DeWitt was optioned to Albuquerque on six different occasions last year.
Will Blake, coming off a career year at age 35, be able to repeat a 4.2 WAR season? Probably not, but I wouldn't put anything past The Beard®.
I would like someday to be able to tell my grandchildren that I witnessed a healthy full season from Rafael Furcal in a Dodger uniform. Worst case scenario: I can always lie.
In 2010, we will get the answer as to whether Manny's second half decline was due to his hand injury or due to age and/or a lack of fertility medication. At any rate, having Manny in the lineup for 130-140 games will be better than the 104 games he played in 2009. Offensively, the Dodgers will go as far as their outfielders will take them.
Ethier's progression as power hitter has been a pleasant surprise, and he has transformed himself from "3.5" (the nickname given to him early in his career, implying he wasn't quite everyday outfielder material) into Silver Slugger. Also, I'm not sure Ethier is as bad defensively as some of the advanced metrics say he is, but perhaps a full season of not having Orlando Hudson hawking every fly ball into short right field will help.
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I think that what this really says
is that if anything screws LA next season, it will be the rotation.
Kershaw is still awfully young, Bills and Kuroda need to stay healthy too, and beyond that the options are basically Elbert, Padilla, McDonald, Weaver and Stults.
The rotation could be really good if everyone stays healthy, but looking at their lineup and bullpen, the rotation is clearly their sore spot.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 5, 2010 12:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Man, I gotta get the pitching version of this finalized.
My target will be the end of February.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
Can't wait for that.
What will the four categories be? Something like strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball percentage and durability?
The pitching one seems like it would be tougher, the skill set for pitchers seems less easy to define.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 5, 2010 12:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Is it too early to beg to please please please use K/PA and B/PA?!
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Seconded.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
I remember a couple of years ago
when all of the prospect evaluators would say something along the lines of, “Kemp’s got the athleticism of a basketball player, if the guy can put everything together, he’ll be a five-tool monster.”
Well… there ya go.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 5, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
And it's worth noting
that UZR likes Kemp’s defense in center more than TotalZone does.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Feb 5, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Off-the-cuff guess that he’s neck and neck with Adam Dunn.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I will report on this and other oddities sometime in the future.
I want bets on biggest difference between defense and baserunning, and the biggest difference between OBP and Power.
Best guesses with funniest comments will get a mention in said article.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
As a Giants fan
This tour through the NL West’s position players has been unbelievably depressing.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I have to admit I'm excited for the AL Central for the same exact reason
…in the same way Tiger is probably excited for the oncoming slew of paternity tests.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
The Twins and the Other Guys
The Tigers might have had the dumbest series of moves starting with last season we’ve seen in a while (non-Contest Division) — letting Magglio’s option vest, which supposedly “forced” them to trade Grandesron, and then signing an okay closer for big money.
If they sign Damon…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 5, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Since the Tig’s appear 100% committed to contending in 2010, signing Damon is something I’d like to see. Might as well go all out: Felipe Lopez and Russell Branyan, too.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
That would add like two wins over what they have now
It would be the greatest 78-win season ever!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 6, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, be nice. We like our mediocrity in the midwest.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
Gotta love "his neighbor is a ball hog!" explanations for defensive suckitude
Hudson was obnoxious a ball hog enough in 2009, but he was really bad in 2008 when he ran onto the field when he wasn’t even on the Dodgers and forced Ethier into a -9/150 season! plus/minus actually shows Hudson to have interfered with the Dodgers games even more in 2008 (Ethier -11 runs) than in 2009 (-1 runs)!
haha… but seriously, folks, the Dodgers are a solid team that should look good finishing second to the Rockies and missing the playoffs.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
I'm finished with the Pitching DiamondView.
It worked out better than I could have possibly imagined. I think I’ll show it to you guys on Monday. Maybe I should wait for the Super Bowl hoopla to die down?
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
We're baseball fans
We probably don’t even know what a Super Bowl is.
by controlled_slide on Feb 6, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
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