Best of Sabermetrics: January 2010

by JinAZ on Feb 5, 2010 7:00 AM EST

No, I'm not starting another awards project. However, one of the things that a lot of us noticed during the BtB Saber Awards was that it was really hard to remember some of the good work done earlier in the year when it came to nominating articles. I personally went through my entire 2009 twitter archive trying to find good stuff I had linked to.

This year, I'm going to post monthly threads like this where I'd like to ask you (our readership): what do you think were the best sabermetric articles of this past month? These can be research articles, commentaries, primers, new resources, or whatever else. This should make for a nice resource to help folks (like me!) keep current in our reading. And, should we do the Sabers again, this will be a handy way to go back and remind ourselves of some of the important work throughout the year.

I don't want this to be overly formal, but it might be helpful to follow this kind of format when linking to a new article:

Subject line: Article title
Link: [url]
Why: [brief blurb on why you think it's worth checking out]

Thanks in advance!

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Nick Steiner's article

“Beyond DIPS,” Nick Steiner, THT, 1/27/10

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/working-title/

What Tango said about it: “Great research, good questions, almost no answers: it’s the journey people.” And it’s a linkfest to DIPS and Pitch f/x stuff.

by Luke Gofannon on Feb 5, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions

I'd like to suggest opening up a thread like this at the beginning of each month.

Then people can add to them on a daily basis.

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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 5, 2010 10:46 AM EST reply actions

Right, that's the plan.

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Feb 5, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

OIC, meaning prospective rather than retrospective.

Good idea, I’ll let this one cook for a few days and then add a February one.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Feb 5, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

Here are my picks (culled from my January twitter posts)

Allen: How Do Pitchers Change Their Approach Against Good Hitters?
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/01/how_do_pitchers.php
Quantifies specifically how pitchers change their approach to good hitters.

Cameron: The Language of FanGraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-language-of-fangraphs
Funny post, because I’ve wrestled with this very thing. I spend very little time talking to people in real life about these stats, and don’t really know how to say them. In fact, I think we all do it differently. Heck, I pronounce “CHONE” phonetically, even though I know it’s pronounced “sean.”

Eric J: Park Factors for BABIP
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/fangraphs_park_factors_for_pitchers/#3
Nice data post. I love Cincinnati’s: pitcher park by BABIP, hitter’s park by HR (http://is.gd/5JcRu).

Granillo: Revisiting Bill James’ “Baseball’s Best Player”
http://wezen-ball.com/2010-articles/january/revisiting-bill-james-qbaseballs-best-playerq.html
I absolutely loved this post, especially when it came to Bonds. I actually showed this to my class when we were talking about PED’s last week to support a student who was arguing a) how amazing Bonds was, and b) how amazing he was before 2001. Also, Kincaid had a related post here: http://www.3-dbaseball.net/2010/01/on-dominance-of-barry-bonds.html

Gray: John Sickels Farm System Rankings
http://redsminorleagues.com/2010/01/18/monday-news-notes-and-a-major-announcement/
He also did a post at minorleagueball, but I don’t have that link offhand.
This approach was spearheaded by Erik Manning and is based on Victor Wang’s work, but Doug makes a few slight adjustments to the technique and gives us the current data. Nice work!

Klaassen: Is a GM Gap Behind the AL/NL disparity?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-alnl-gap-a-gm-disparity
Devil_Fingers’ breakdown of GM’s into good vs. bad categories is a bit arbitrary, but even so I think he may be right: part of the reason that AL teams are better is that their front offices are smarter. That, and they have more money to work with. … though smarter GM’s = better teams = more money…

Marchi: Cannons in the Bushes
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/cannons-in-the-bushes/
Max gives us minor league arm ratings.

SG: Extremely Early 2010 MLB Projected Standings – CAIRO Edition
http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

These MLB-level projections take a ton of work to do well, and CAIRO has a good track record. And anything showing the Reds winning 86 games is awesome by me.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Feb 5, 2010 3:02 PM EST reply actions

I've got one to add

Sky Andrecheck – The Value of a Good Farm System
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/01/how_does_the_fa.php
A look at the expected future gains and losses of teams with baseball’s best and worst organizations.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 5, 2010 9:51 PM EST reply actions

Flattered to be in here for something other than "The Contest"

I wish in retrospect I hadn’t made the good/bad line seem to “firm,” and just gone with general groups, but hey, maybe it made it more “popular.” I do think there’s something to it.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 6, 2010 1:31 PM EST reply actions

I didn't mean it as a real critique

That sort of thing is always going to be arbitrary until you start applying some sort of quantitative analysis to it. As I said, I think you’re probably right that it’s a factor.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Feb 6, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

Colin's fielding metric part 1

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9999

I haven’t read it cause of the paywall, but I assume it’s great ;)

by vivaelpujols on Feb 7, 2010 3:43 AM EST reply actions

Has a lot of promise

Mostly because it’s using continuous functions instead of zones for infielders. In that way, it’s more like PMR or SAFE than UZR. If he does the same thing SAFE does in the outfield, I’ll be really excited about it.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Feb 9, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

What does SAFE do in the outfield that's so neat?

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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 9, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

This:

Beyond looking awesome, the point is that it’s fitting functions to the data and using those functions to compare actual vs. expected performance. It’s a step up from zones. Not sure it makes THAT much difference, but it certainly feels like it’s much closer to what we should be doing.
-j