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Comparing offensive sabermetrics among World Series teams

ORIGINALLY POSTED ON www.philadelphiabaseballreview.com

By Patrick Gordon, Managing Editor

PBR - High expectations surround the Phillies entering the 2010 season.

To further understand these expectations the Philadelphia Baseball Review studied various historical statistics and will use various sabermetrical formulas during the season to compare the current club to the seven in franchise history that reached the World Series (1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, 1993, 2008, 2009).

This post refers to part one (the offense) of the three-part formula.
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For the study I limited my focus to the seven Phillies teams that have reached the World Series and examined their offensive output.

CLUB AB HR RBI TB SB R BB
1915 4916 58 486 1670 121 589 460
1950 5426 125 673 2150 33 722 535
1980 5625 117 674 2248 140 728 472
1983 5426 125 649 2026 143 696 640
1993 5685 156 811 2422 91 877 665
2008 5509 214 762 2412 136 799 586
2009 5578 224 788 2493 119 820 589

I then examined the National League averages for the same categories during those seven seasons.

CLUB AB HR RBI TB SB R BB
1915 5111 28 474 1689 149 565 408
1950 5302 138 671 2126 47 720 567
1980 5523 104 613 2068 153 728 472
1983 5476 117 621 2058 149 666 535
1993 5535 140 681 2208 122 728 507
2008 5537 163 700 2286 93 734 551
2009 5493 155 683 2245 89 718 558

The sabermetric statistics I used were Total Power Quotient (TPQ), Power Speed-Number (PSN), and Hoban Effectiveness Quotient for Offense (HEQ-O).

TPQ is a formula designed to sum up three traditional power measures: home runs, total bases and runs batted in. Once summed the number is divided by the number of at bats. Thus, TPQ = (HR+TB+RBI) / AB.

PSN is a formula designed to rate the ability of a player or club to hit home runs and steal bases. The formula is PSN = (2 x (HR+SB)) / HR + SB.

HEQ-O is a formula designed to evaluate the sustained effectiveness of a player or club. The formula HEQ-O is populated as TB + R + RBI + SB + .5 X BB.

In addition to finding the TPQ, PSN, and HEQ-O for the seven clubs involved, I also computed the formulas to find the respective year league average.

CLUB TPQ PSN HEQ-O lgTPQ lgPSN lgHEQ-O
1915 .4504 78.41 3096.0 .4287 47.14 3081.0
1950 .5433 52.15 3845.5 .5536 70.12 3847.5
1980 .5403 127.47 4026.0 .5043 123.83 3736.5
1983 .5160 133.39 3834.0 .5106 131.08 3761.5
1993 .5961 114.95 4533.5 .5472 130.38 3992.5
2008 .6150 166.31 4402.0 .5687 118.43 4088.5
2009 .6284 155.43 4514.5 .5613 113.07 4014.0

Normalization and Relativity

The above numbers are raw. Though they indicate how a club performed during a given year, as is, they can't be compared. For example, though the '15 Phillies have a PSN nearly 77 points less than the '09 Phillies, it doesn't mean the '09 club was that much better in the given statistic. To truly gain an understanding of the statistics they must be placed in context. This is where normalization becomes important.

Normalization allows for a clearer understanding of a statistical analysis as it offers a way to interpret degree of difficulty. Totals that led the major leagues in 1915 are vastly different than those that lead the majors today.

Normalization and relativity allow for further comprehension of statistics, so let's look at an example. In 1915 Gavvy Cravath hit 24 home runs in 522 at-bats. So his homer to at-bat ratio is 24 / 522 = 0.0459. From this we can infer that Cravath hit about five (4.5 rounded) homers every 100 at-bats. This is what he would normally produce. In that same year, 1915, the total number of homers hit by all players was 225. Dividing this number by the total number of 40,888 at-bats gives a homer to at-bat ratio of 0.0055. If you think of this number as the average player, most players in 1915 would hit one homer every 150 at-bats.

So, how can we interpret a normalized number? Well, 0.0459 / 0.0055 = 8.3454 (the normalized number). This means Cravath was eight times better than the average homerun hitter of 1915.

The same mathematical procedure can be performed on the statistics from the seven clubs involved in this study. Finding the normalized number indicates how much better (or worse) a specific club was relative to their league. A number above 1 implies better than average. For example, the '15 Phillies had a normalized TPQ of 1.0508. This means the club was 5 percent better in that category than the average National League team in 1915.

CLUB TPQ/lgTPQ PSN/lgPSN HEQ-O/lgHEQ-O
1915 1.0508 1.6634 1.0049
1950 0.9814 0.7447 0.9995
1980 1.0714 1.0294 1.0775
1983 1.0106 1.0177 1.0193
1993 1.0893 0.8816 1.1355
2008 1.0813 1.4043 1.0767
2009 1.1195 1.3746 1.1247

Final Ranking

We now know how each team faired in the three sabermetric categories relative to their league, so I used the rotisserie scoring style used in fantasy baseball to rank the seven clubs (1st place gets 7 points, 2nd place gets 6 points, etc.).

R CLUB PTS
1 2009 18
2 2008 15
2 1993 15
4 1980 13
5 1915 12
6 1983 8
7 1950 3

The same scoring format will be used in mid-March when we examine (Part 2) pitching/defense.

Each week during the season the Review will compare the '10 Phillies to the seven clubs in this study.

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