2010 Player Projections - Brad Lidge

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 26, 2010 8:00 PM EST Comment 9 comments

Brad Lidge get chosen to have his 2010 projections get scrutinized over the weekend. Here are his 2010 projections from Fangraphs.com and for the saves in the final question I used an average of The Fans, Bill James and Marcel. The rest of the information is from CHONE.

Standard Projections
Season	Type	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	R	HR	BB	SO
2010	Bill James	4	3	3.60	69	28	60	51		6	28	78
2010	CHONE	4	3	3.92	67		62	52	29	7	30	64
2010	Marcel	2	4	4.57		23	61	60	33	7	30	63
2010	All Fans (32)	2	4	3.77	64	34	70	72	31	9	35	81
2010	Other Fans (17)	2	4	4.10	64	30	70	80	34	9	36	80
2010	Team Fans (15)	3	3	3.38	65	34	71	68	29	9	35	83

Advanced Projections
Season	Type	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	FIP
2010	Bill James	11.7	4.2	2.79	0.9	0.23	1.32	0.330	3.40
2010	CHONE	9.29	4.35	2.13	1.02	0.23	1.32	0.289	4.10
2010	Marcel	9.3	4.43	2.1	1.03	0.26	1.48	0.327	4.25
2010	All Fans (32)	10.41	4.5	2.31	1.16	0.27	1.53	0.351	4.13
2010	Other Fans (17)	10.29	4.63	2.22	1.16	0.29	1.66	0.377	4.20
2010	Team Fans (15)	10.52	4.44	2.37	1.14	0.25	1.45	0.335	4.06

Value Projections
Season	Type	Relief-IP	RAR	WAR
2010	All Fans (32)	70	5.1	0.5
2010	Other Fans (17)	70	4.4	0.4
2010	Team Fans (15)	72	6	0.6

Poll

Will Brad Lidge in 2010 do better than the CHONE projection of: 4-3, 28 saves*, 62 IP, 3.92 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 9.3 K/9

Better

78 votes

Same

52 votes

Worse

43 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 9 comments |

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Comments

ERA too low, K/9 too low

There is no way his ERA will be below 4.00. His K/9 ratio will be higher. I think he may be due for an injury, though…

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by halophane on Feb 26, 2010 11:19 PM EST reply actions

huh?

he pitched injured all of last year. i’d say last year was his injury year and this year he returns to form.

he outperforms his projections..

by jamiethekiller on Mar 1, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

What he’s actually due for is a season where we believe in him again. It’s bound to happen, and it’s certainly the trend in his career.

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by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 27, 2010 2:22 AM EST reply actions

Wow.

Brad Lidge has a career .329 BABIP over 2200+ batters faced. Interesting.

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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 27, 2010 7:03 AM EST reply actions

Interesting that the Phillies fans and non-fans pretty much agree on everything they voted on, except ERA.

K rates, BB rates, HR rates, and FIP are all the same, but with a 70 point swing in ERA.

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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 27, 2010 10:32 AM EST reply actions

Good observation

Non-fans are projecting Lidge to post a 4.20 FIP and a 4.10 ERA, in spite of the fact that they project him to have a horrid .377 BABIP.

Ignore the BABIP, and fans and non-fans projected essentially the same Lidge for next season.

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by Satchel Price on Feb 27, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

The BABIP is forced by the difference in FIP and ERA. It's not something voted on directly.

Rate-wise, the only inputs are K, BB, HR, and ERA. The first three combine to give FIP, and then BABIP is adjusted up or down in order to create more or fewer hits that would raise or lower ERA compared to FIP.

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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 27, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions