Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

MLBN Flexin' their "Sabr" chops: Base Rate

The Lodo Magic Man over on Purple Row pointed out MLBN introducing a new metric they called "Base Rate" or something similar.

Their formula reads as follows:

OPS-AVG.

That's it.

Now, there are two ways to look at this. OPS-AVG could be looked at as SLG+walks (or just the IsoD), or it could be looked at as OBP + IsoP.

My immediate reaction was to eschew it, thinking "well, we have wOBA, why do we really need something else? Linear Weights own." Some very brief discussion followed, and Rox Girl brought up the point that OPS double-counts singles, as they appear in both OBP and SLG. So at least it seems there's some merit.

What I've noticed is that it over-rewards guys with low batting averages. Pujols and Fielder appear near the top, Mauer and Votto are definitely on there, but BaseRate provides some surprises.

Here's the top-10 in the majors by metric:

 

OPS

 

wOBA

 

BaseRate

 

1

Albert Pujols

1.101

Albert Pujols

.449

Albert Pujols

.774

2

Joe Mauer

1.031

Joe Mauer

.438

Prince Fielder

.715

3

Prince Fielder

1.014

Prince Fielder

.420

Adrian Gonzalez

.681

4

Joey Votto

.981

Joey Votto

.418

Carlos Pena

.666

5

Derrek Lee

.972

Kevin Youkilis

.413

Joe Mauer

.666

6

Kevin Youkilis

.961

Derrek Lee

.412

Derrek Lee

.666

7

Adrian Gonzalez

.958

Hanley Ramirez

.410

Adam Dunn

.661

8

Hanley Ramirez

.954

Ben Zobrist

.408

Joey Votto

.659

9

Ben Zobrist

.948

Alex Rodriguez

.405

Kevin Youkilis

.656

10

Mark Teixeira

.948

Ryan Braun

.405

Mark Teixeira

.656

I'm not much of a deep thinker, or someone who formulates metrics, so attempting to figure out what exactly is wrong with this ( or why I should be accepting it) isn't really my strong suit, so I'm turning to the minds over here at BtB.

Just for the record, I'm not suggesting this should overthrow wOBA or anything, I'm pretty on board with linear weights, etc, but I'm wondering if BaseRate can actually provide any value that isn't completely redundant or overly faulty.

(If this has been discussed already, I'll delete this. I ran a quick search to see if there was already a discussion, and I haven't seen anything.)

Comment 12 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I'm sure Tango will dissect it and show what (incorrect) linear weights it implies...

OBP and ISO are good stats with important uses. But once you start wanting an overall metric to answer different questions, you might as well get it right and not keep creating B- stats.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 25, 2010 12:29 PM EST reply actions  

this is roughly what I thought as well

I like the idea of OBP + ISO, but it seems as if by removing one of the doubled set of singles, it’s undervaluing the runner-advancing potential or the on-base potential

Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics

by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

That sounds about right.

Double counting singles is fine, because singles are more valuable than walks. By making it OBP+ISO, you’re discounting the movement value of a single.

I’m not sure if it’s necessary, but it is simple. I don’t think it adds anything to OPS though.

by SFiercex4 on Feb 25, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Magrane's a great play-by-play guy

not so much a great analyst

http://citrusjuicing.com/ An SRQ focused-Tampa Bay area sports blog

by CubFanRaysaddict on Feb 25, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Gobbelty Goop

Base rate. It’s gobbelty goop. It doesn’t give us any useful information we can’t get with a) stats that more accurately measure actual run values or b) make mathematical sense or c) are already commonly used.

I think what they were attempting to do is correct for the fact that OPS double-counts hits. If they want to do this, the correct stat to use, in my opinion, is APS (Average plus Secondary Average). Give it’s easy to compute and makes some mathematical sense. The formula is simply (TB+BB+SB-CS)/AB.

OPS is generally a bad starting point, given it’s well documented flaws and the mathematical gibberish involved. OPS derivatives are even worse.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Feb 26, 2010 8:25 AM EST reply actions  

It's not easy to get accurate statistics

derived from already flawed statistics. Alas, MLBN has yet to recognize this.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 26, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Right.

And at least the MLBN is trying.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Feb 26, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

True, absolutely.

But the video of the analysis and stuff is pretty hard to watch for anyone with decent exposure to sabermetrics.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 26, 2010 11:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?

Follow us on Facebook!

Follow us on Twitter!

SaberGraphics

Yahoo_full_count

MLB Daily Dish

Get the latest MLB Trade Rumors, Transactions, and News at MLB Daily Dish!


Managing Editor:

Jbopp-kc_small Justin Bopp

Columnists:

Adam_small adarowski

Dme_small Satchel Price

Closeup4_small J-Doug

Carlosicon_small Julian Levine

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

Featuring:

Dayton_small Jeff Zimmerman

12475953_small Jacob Peterson

Recent_pic_pg_small Patrick Gordon

Btbpro_small Dave Gershman

Me_small Bryan Grosnick

229331_10150183361996591_674441590_6760167_6637860_n3_small Lewie Pollis

Img_3830_small David Fung

30472_1481067225243_1190689185_1381415_997334_n_small Glenn DuPaul

1mnvxku7_small joshuaworn

Set_small MattFilippi18

Photo0011_small Nathaniel Stoltz