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Wins Above MVP Level

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn't just a raw counting stat. The whole "replacement level" part of it also ensures that any junk numbers recorded that were below replacement level are ignored. Sean Smith recently introduced Wins Above Excellence—a way to add an additional baseline to WAR that removes any seasons with less than 3.0 WAR. The goal is to quantify only those seasons that separated a player from the pack.

I wonder if 3.0 is too low of a baseline, though. I mean, 2.0 WAR is generally considered league average. Shouldn't "excellence" start somewhere around 4.0 wins? I've used both (calling them WAE3 and WAE4) in a series of blog posts. I've also added WAE6 as a way to see how often that player achieved a truly special season. My reasoning was that around 6.0 WAR you're generally starting to talk about MVP-level performances. So, in essence, this was Wins Above MVP Level.

WAMVP? Sure, that rolls off the tongue.

Then I started wondering if 6.0 was the right baseline for WAMVP. Wouldn't the best approach be to gather the WAR for all MVP winners and find the average? So that's what I did. (Data, of course, from Rally's WAR database.)

Star-divide

Wins Above Replacement for MVP Winners
Year NL MVP WAR AL MVP WAR
2009 Albert Pujols 9.2 Joe Mauer 7.9
2008 Albert Pujols
9.6 Dustin Pedroia 5.2
2007 Jimmy Rollins 6.1 Alex Rodriguez 9.9
2006 Ryan Howard 5.8 Justin Morneau 3.8
2005 Albert Pujols 8.2 Alex Rodriguez 8.4
2004 Barry Bonds 12.4 Vladimir Guerrero 7.4
2003 Barry Bonds 10.3 Alex Rodriguez 7.7
2002 Barry Bonds
12.2 Miguel Tejada 5.2
2001 Barry Bonds 12.5 Ichiro Suzuki 7.6
2000 Jeff Kent 7.9 Jason Giambi 8.7
1999 Chipper Jones 7.0 Ivan Rodriguez 6.0
1998 Sammy Sosa 6.5 Juan Gonzalez 5.1
1997 Larry Walker 9.0 Ken Griffey
9.4
1996 Ken Caminiti 7.9 Juan Gonzalez 2.8
1995 Barry Larkin
5.9 Mo Vaughn 4.2
1994 Jeff Bagwell 8.9 Frank Thomas 6.3
1993 Barry Bonds 10.6 Frank Thomas 6.7
1992 Barry Bonds 10.0 Dennis Eckersley * 3.0
1991 Terry Pendleton 6.1 Cal Ripken 11.0
1990 Barry Bonds 9.7 Rickey Henderson 10.0
1989 Kevin Mitchell 7.7 Robin Yount 5.7
1988 Kirk Gibson 7.3 Jose Canseco 7.6
1987 Andre Dawson 2.7 George Bell 5.0
1986 Mike Schmidt 6.6 Roger Clemens * 7.9
1985 Willie McGee 8.5 Don Mattingly 6.4
1984 Ryne Sandberg 8.5 Guillermo Hernandez * 4.8
1983 Dale Murphy 7.2 Cal Ripken 8.3
1982 Dale Murphy 6.3 Robin Yount 11.5
1981 Mike Schmidt 7.6 Rollie Fingers * 4.1
1980 Mike Schmidt 9.1 George Brett 9.6
1979 Keith Hernandez 4.4 Don Baylor 4.4
Willie Stargell 2.3
1978 Dave Parker 7.1 Jim Rice 7.0
1977 George Foster 8.2 Rod Carew 10.9
1976 Joe Morgan 10.0 Thurman Munson 5.1
1975 Joe Morgan 12.0 Fred Lynn 7.1
1974 Steve Garvey 5.1 Jeff Burroughs 3.6
1973 Pete Rose 8.5 Reggie Jackson 8.1
1972 Johnny Bench 9.1 Dick Allen 9.3
1971 Joe Torre 6.8 Vida Blue * 8.8
1970 Johnny Bench 6.5 Boog Powell 5.4
1969 Willie McCovey 8.9 Harmon Killebrew 6.1
1968 Bob Gibson * 11.9 Denny McLain * 5.9
1967 Orlando Cepeda 7.1 Carl Yastrzemski 12.2
1966 Roberto Clemente 7.3 Frank Robinson 8.3
1965 Willie Mays 11.0 Zoilo Versalles 7.6
1964 Ken Boyer 5.6 Brooks Robinson 8.1
1963 Sandy Koufax * 10.8 Elston Howard 5.4
1962 Maury Wills 6.1 Mickey Mantle 7.1
1961 Frank Robinson 7.6 Roger Maris 7.2
1960 Dick Groat 5.7 Roger Maris 7.5
1959 Ernie Banks 10.0 Nellie Fox 6.2
1958 Ernie Banks 9.7 Jackie Jensen 4.6
1957 Hank Aaron 7.5 Mickey Mantle 12.5
1956 Don Newcombe * 4.1 Mickey Mantle 12.9
1955 Roy Campanella 5.5 Yogi Berra 3.8
1954 Willie Mays 10.2 Yogi Berra 6.2
1953 Roy Campanella 7.2 Al Rosen 9.7
1952 Hank Sauer 5.3 Bobby Shantz * 8.2
1951 Roy Campanella 7.0 Yogi Berra 5.1
1950 Jim Konstanty * 4.0 Phil Rizzuto 7.1
1949 Jackie Robinson 10.3 Ted Williams 9.5
1948 Stan Musial 11.5 Lou Boudreau 10.5
1947 Bob Elliott 6.2 Joe DiMaggio
5.6
1946 Stan Musial 9.8 Ted Williams 11.8
1945 Phil Cavarretta 6.6 Hal Newhouser * 8.9
1944 Marty Marion 4.0 Hal Newhouser * 7.1
1943 Stan Musial 8.9 Spud Chandler * 6.0
1942 Mort Cooper * 6.8 Joe Gordon 8.4
1941 Dolph Camilli 6.8 Joe DiMaggio 9.4
1940 Frank McCormick 6.0 Hank Greenberg 6.4
1939 Bucky Walters * 7.7 Joe DiMaggio 8.9
1938 Ernie Lombardi 5.3 immie Foxx 7.5
1937 Joe Medwick 8.9 Charlie Gehringer 7.6
1936 Carl Hubbell * 9.0 Lou Gehrig 9.8
1935 Gabby Hartnett 5.2 Hank Greenberg 8.3
1934 Dizzy Dean * 8.1 Mickey Cochrane 4.3
1933 Carl Hubbell * 8.2 Jimmie Foxx 9.0
1932 Chuck Klein 6.6 Jimmie Foxx 10.7
1931 Frankie Frisch 4.4 Lefty Grove *
9.4
1929 Rogers Hornsby 11.5
1928 Jim Bottomley 5.5 Mickey Cochrane 3.7
1927 Paul Waner 7.1 Lou Gehrig 12.0
1926 Bob O'Farrell 3.4 George Burns 4.5
1925 Rogers Hornsby
10.0 Roger Peckinpaugh 2.4
1924 Dazzy Vance * 9.1 Walter Johnson * 6.2
1923 Babe Ruth 14.7
1922 George Sisler 8.8
1914 Johnny Evers 5.1 Eddie Collins 11.3
1913 Jake Daubert
3.3 Walter Johnson * 12.4
1912 Larry Doyle 5.5 Tris Speaker 11.0
1911 Frank Schulte
5.6 Ty Cobb 11.4

* denotes the player is a pitcher

So, let's take a look at some averages:

Average WAR for MVP Winners, by decade
Years NL AVG WAR AL AVG WAR
All Years 7.62 7.62
2000–2009 9.42 7.18
1990–1999 8.16 6.45
1980–1989 7.15 7.09
1970–1979 7.27 6.97
1960–1969 8.20 7.54
1950–1959 7.05 7.63
1940–1949 7.69 8.36
1930–1939 7.04 8.39
1920–1929 7.77 7.47
1910–1919 4.88 11.53

Wow, so the average WAR for all MVP winners thoughout the history of the National League is 7.62. The average for all MVP winners in American League history also happens to be 7.62. My quick math tells me the average of the two of those is 7.62.

A few notes of interest from this table:

  • The NL was way ahead of the AL this decade. Two main reasons: Albert Pujols (3 MVPs at 8.2, 9.6, and 9.2) and Barry Bonds (4 MVPs at—get this—12.5, 12.2, 10.3, and 12.4). The AL had some low-WAR selections this decade in Justin Morneau (3.8 in 2006), Miguel Tejada (5.2 in 2002) and Dustin Pedroia (5.2 in 2008).
  • The NL has been ahead of the AL in each decade from the 1960s to date. The AL in the 1950s had strong seasons from Mickey Mantle (12.9 and 12.5 in 1956 and 1957) to help push them over the top.
  • The AL was ahead of the NL in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s.
  • The 1910s and 1920s (and even 1930s) are incomplete because the award wasn't consistently given until 1931.
  • In the 1910s, the AL only named four MVPs, but each one cleared 11 WAR (Ty Cobb with 11.4, Tris Speaker with 11.0, Walter Johnson with 12.4, and Eddie Collins with 11.3). The top NL MVP by WAR in that decade was Frank Schulte at 5.6.

What MVPs had the highest single season WAR?

  1. Babe Ruth (14.7, 1923)
  2. Mickey Mantle (12.9, 1956)
  3. Barry Bonds (12.5, 2001)
  4. Mickey Mantle (12.5, 1957)
  5. Barry Bonds (12.4, 2004)
  6. Walter Johnson (12.4, 1913)
  7. Barry Bonds (12.2, 2002)
  8. Carl Yastrzemski (12.2, 1967)
  9. Joe Morgan (12.0, 1975)
  10. Lou Gehrig (12.0, 1927)

Note: These are not the ten best seasons in history by WAR. These are just the ten best seasons for players who won the MVP award.

And, of course, the ten (actually eleven, since there's a tie) lowest WAR totals:

  1. Willie Stargell (2.3, 1979)
  2. Roger Peckinpaugh (2.4, 1925)
  3. Andre Dawson (2.7, 1987)
  4. Juan Gonzalez (2.8, 1996)
  5. Dennis Eckersley (3.0, 1992)
  6. Jake Daubert (3.3, 1913)
  7. Bob O'Farrell (3.4, 1926)
  8. Jeff Burroughs (3.6, 1974)
  9. Mickey Cochrane (3.7, 1928)
  10. Justin Morneau (3.8, 2006)
  11. Yogi Berra (3.8, 1955)

As that list shows, there are plenty of MVP winners that don't reach 7.62 WAR. Still, the fact that Willie Stargell won and MVP award with a 2.3 WAR season doesn't mean I should use that as my baseline either. So what baseline should I use for finding MVP-type seasons? I hesitate to use the average because, by definition, that means 50% of the players who did win the MVP award didn't even reach that level.

So, let's go back to my original baseline of 6.0 WAR. Of the 181 players who have won MVP awards in MLB history, 133 of them achieved a WAR of 6.0 or above. That's 73%. That, to me, sounds like a pretty good baseline.

Tell me, what do you think is a good baseline for measuring Wins Above MVP Level?

1 recs  |  Comment 30 comments |

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I like it

Interested to see where this goes.

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Feb 25, 2010 10:23 AM EST reply actions  

I agree

Continuing evaluation of where you choose to set the baseline could get really fun.

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Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Feb 25, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

My Thoughts

I only have the 2008 and early set when I run these number (have asked Rally for an upgrade yet)

All time there are 980 hitters that went over 6 WAR along will 480 pitchers.

They are fighting for 195 MVP spots or on average 7.5 players per league per year qualify.

Seems high to me. If it is upped to the average of 7.62 then the numbers are:
312 hitters and 141 pitchers which puts the number at 2.3 players per year.

Maybe a nice round number of 7.5 WAR would be better

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 25, 2010 10:23 AM EST reply actions  

Six sounds about right to me

I’m shocked Marty Martion missed the cut of being one of the worst MVP selections, all-time. Yay defense.

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on Feb 25, 2010 10:35 AM EST reply actions  

Love this stuff.

Thinking out loud — how about looking at the top five (three? seven?) finishers each year and take an average or weighted average? Or ignore the BBWAA MVP and simply look at the best WAR numbers each year. Or combine the two somehow.

I definitely think that this sort of approach (using WAE, WAMVP) is a great way to look at greatness. I’ll be thinking about ways to combine a variety of baselines to help weight career longevity and peak, as I think that’s better than simply doing “best X seasons” where X is arbitrary.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 25, 2010 10:40 AM EST reply actions  

It almost seems too simple, but...

I’ve been wondering if a WAR + WAE would be a really good metric for Hall of Fame candidacy. Basically, it takes career value, but gives double credit for exceptional seasons.

Again, seems too easy. But it just. might. work.

by adarowski on Feb 25, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

But do you use WAE3? WAE4? WAE7?

In other words, why would you pick one over the other? I’ve always liked the idea of continuity, where each additional WAR in a season is worth more than the last, instead of a hard, arbitrary cut off.

I’ve toyed with HoF WAR = SUM and it certainly favors high peak vs. longevity, but that too, seems arbitrary. Place to start, though.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 25, 2010 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

That's the question

You could raise WAR to an exponent to make a 6 WAR year more valuable than two 3 WAR years, but then the arbitrary question shifts from “what baseline” to “what exponent”.

Some suggest a pennants added approach, though if you do so I suggest reading some of David Gassko’s work before implementing anything you read in Baseball Prospectus’s book. The issue with that is the ease of reaching pennants is not uniform across the decades, with varying league sizes, later the introduction of divisions, and finally the wild card.

Especially the wild card seems to make lots of 3-4 WAR seasons as valuable, maybe a bit more so, than a few 6-7 WAR seasons from a guy who has the same WAR in a shorter career. Getting to the playoffs every year is key, and once there anything can happen. But in the days where best record goes straight to the World Series, you are better off with a superstar like Koufax compared to a steady pitcher with a longer career like Tommy John.

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Feb 26, 2010 9:28 AM EST up reply actions  

It would be interesting to see how team performance plays into all of this

Which guys who were undeserving MVP’s according to WAR:

a. won thanks to gaudy counting stats that don’t necessarily translate to value
b. won thanks to team perfrmance
c. won for some other reason

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 25, 2010 11:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Like catchers

I see quite a few catchers that won with WAR on the lower side. It just seems catchers have a harder time putting up gaudy WAR totals. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that you don’t see many catchers playing 150 games. So, their value total has a disadvantage right there. That helps explain why you don’t see a catcher until you hit #52 all time in position player WAR.

I wonder if there’s something else at work here. Is their some other trait catchers possess that isn’t captured in that “Catch” rating (but is visible to fans)? The most obvious trait I can think of that catchers get a lot of credit for that simply isn’t captured in WAR is “calling a good game”. There’s really no way to score this that I can think of.

by adarowski on Feb 25, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Catchers definitely get bonus points for being catchers

It’s regarded as the most difficult position to play, and as we’ve seen in the past, baseball people like to attribute leadership skills and ability to work with a pitching staff to catchers as part of their value, even though it’s really unquantifiable.

And of course, there’s the fact that it’s undoubtedly the most physically demanding position to play, which accounts for the lack of longevity for catchers in terms of PA in single seasons and on a career level.

This is some very cool stuff, Adam.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 25, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Yogi's 3.8 WAR in '55

I loved Yogi as much as anyone else, but Kaline’s 9 WAR in ’55 showed he was deserved of an MVP that year.

by KalineCountry on Feb 25, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions  

While New York finished 96-58 and won the pennant while Detroit finished 79-75 and in eighth place.

I’m still surprised, just like you. Even looking at traditional stats, it’s clear that Kaline was better:

Berra: .272 BA, 27 HR, 108 RBI, 147 hits and 84 runs scored in 147 games
Kaline: .340 BA, 27 HR, 102 RBI, 200 hits and 121 runs scored in 152 games

Even factoring for Kaline being a right fielder and Berra being a catcher, and I don’t see how Berra was more valuable that year. There’s an MVP we can chalk up to team performance.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 25, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Kaline also...

led the league in total bases with 321. well “The Six” did win the Sporting News Player of the Year Award as well as in ‘63.
Team performance and MVP’s will usually go hand in hand.

by KalineCountry on Feb 26, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

And look at this

From 1950 to 1963, a 14 year span, the Yankees had 10 MVPs, and eight of those came in a ten year span. Rizzuto, Mantle, Berra, Maris and Howard all took home the award at least once, with Berra taking it three times, Mantle three times, and Maris twice. Jeez.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 25, 2010 12:47 PM EST reply actions  

Morneau didn't have a great season

But that year was pretty bad for the AL – Mauer had 7.0 WAR, but Pedroia and Youkilis both had 4.3.

As an aside, how does Rally’s put Mauer’s 2008 at 45 batting runs while Fangraphs comes in at 27. Two wins difference seems like a lot; I’m wondering which system is “correct”.

by KMils on Feb 25, 2010 2:50 PM EST reply actions  

Depends on what you like to base your weights on

Rally’s database reconciles run scoring at the team level. FanGraphs’ weights reconcile at the league level. That’s the big difference.

by SFiercex4 on Feb 25, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

For Baseline

I’d go with 6.4 WAR. That gets you the top 67% of the guys that have ever won it. Also, if anyone is wondering, the median MVP WAR is 7.55 and the mode MVP WAR is 7.1. Now that I’m thinking about it, though, this does seem really arbitrary. Perhaps you should look at some percentage of the average WAR for the top AL and NL pitcher and position player for each year.

If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.

by jasonkylebates on Feb 25, 2010 2:50 PM EST reply actions  

Snubs

Which 10 non-MVP’s had the highest WAR?

by bdunc8 on Feb 25, 2010 6:41 PM EST reply actions  

Good question

And certainly worth a future post. I’m gonna have to (finally) do some deep digging into the WAR database.

by adarowski on Feb 26, 2010 7:26 AM EST up reply actions  

How about using a player's performance for the baseline?

Mauer’s performance this last year might be a good baseline (7.9 WAR). You can round it up to 8 WAR if you want.

Then you get to call it WAM! (exclamation point for emphasis) for Wins Above Mauer.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 26, 2010 4:34 AM EST reply actions  

Great name, but...

Attempting to tally wins above a player that happens to be his league’s best hitter AND a Gold Glover at the game’s toughest position may not bear much fruit. Alas, the only player who can record WAM! might be M! himself. :)

So, how long until we have WAMW? (Wins Above Matt Wieters)

by adarowski on Feb 26, 2010 7:28 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

In 2006

Carlos Beltran had an 8.0 WAR season for the 97-win Mets, but lost the MVP to a guy with a 5.8 WAR whose Phillies finished 12 games behind the Mets.

In 2007, David Wright had a 7.8 WAR season for the 88 win Mets, but lost the MVP to a guy with a 6.1 WAR whose Phillies finished one game ahead of the Mets.

I’m glad the MVP voters are consistent.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Feb 26, 2010 9:54 AM EST reply actions  

to be fair..

using fangraphs

in 2006 ryan howard had a 7.0 WAR with a 6.77 WPA/LI. the dude was CLUTCH AND posted a high WAR

Beltran posted a 3.99 WPA/LI and a 7.0 WAR.

howard was a beast that year.

by jamiethekiller on Feb 26, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions  

true

but the next year, Wright had a 4.99 WPA/LI while Rollins had a 2.47, and Wright posted an 8.4 WAR to Rollins’ 6.7.

My problem isn’t so much that either Howard or Rollins won the MVP, it’s that there is no consistency to it. If Howard deserved it in ‘06, then Wright deserved it in ’07. Or, if Rollins deserved it in ’07, then Beltran deserved it in ’06. (Or, the argument could certainly be made, Pujols should have won it both years, and should be going for his 5th in a row. I’m a Mets fan, so I’m ignoring that argument for right now haha)

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Feb 26, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

The problem with the voters in 2006

is that they felt like the Mets’ other stars “canceled each other out,” even though Beltran was the clear-cut best player they had that year.

But the David Wright non-MVP season was just ridiculous. He was so far and away better than Rollins that year. His numbers were just so phenomenally well rounded—it was his best defensive season too, to boot (going by his 4.9 UZR).

In addition, I had thought if David Wright didn’t win it in 2007, the voters would choose Matt Holliday. Holliday had a much better season than Rollins (8.0 WAR to 6.7 WAR) and was just as instrumental in the Rockies’ own rise to the playoffs. I may be a biased Mets fan, but the Rockies’ comeback of going 14-1 or so down the stretch to make the playoffs was far more momentous than the Phillies’ run, which was mostly just a product of ineptitude.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Feb 26, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Even before Bonds went on his suspected steroid binge

he was such a beast for the Pirates.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Feb 26, 2010 10:52 AM EST reply actions  

Barry Bonds was on his way to being one of the best players of all time

the steroids simply took him to monster level, the most dominant, valuable player since Babe Ruth himself. Either way, he was going to end up being a legend.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 26, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

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