Wins Above MVP Level
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn't just a raw counting stat. The whole "replacement level" part of it also ensures that any junk numbers recorded that were below replacement level are ignored. Sean Smith recently introduced Wins Above Excellence—a way to add an additional baseline to WAR that removes any seasons with less than 3.0 WAR. The goal is to quantify only those seasons that separated a player from the pack.
I wonder if 3.0 is too low of a baseline, though. I mean, 2.0 WAR is generally considered league average. Shouldn't "excellence" start somewhere around 4.0 wins? I've used both (calling them WAE3 and WAE4) in a series of blog posts. I've also added WAE6 as a way to see how often that player achieved a truly special season. My reasoning was that around 6.0 WAR you're generally starting to talk about MVP-level performances. So, in essence, this was Wins Above MVP Level.
WAMVP? Sure, that rolls off the tongue.
Then I started wondering if 6.0 was the right baseline for WAMVP. Wouldn't the best approach be to gather the WAR for all MVP winners and find the average? So that's what I did. (Data, of course, from Rally's WAR database.)
| Year | NL MVP | WAR | AL MVP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Albert Pujols | 9.2 | Joe Mauer | 7.9 |
| 2008 | Albert Pujols |
9.6 | Dustin Pedroia | 5.2 |
| 2007 | Jimmy Rollins | 6.1 | Alex Rodriguez | 9.9 |
| 2006 | Ryan Howard | 5.8 | Justin Morneau | 3.8 |
| 2005 | Albert Pujols | 8.2 | Alex Rodriguez | 8.4 |
| 2004 | Barry Bonds | 12.4 | Vladimir Guerrero | 7.4 |
| 2003 | Barry Bonds | 10.3 | Alex Rodriguez | 7.7 |
| 2002 | Barry Bonds |
12.2 | Miguel Tejada | 5.2 |
| 2001 | Barry Bonds | 12.5 | Ichiro Suzuki | 7.6 |
| 2000 | Jeff Kent | 7.9 | Jason Giambi | 8.7 |
| 1999 | Chipper Jones | 7.0 | Ivan Rodriguez | 6.0 |
| 1998 | Sammy Sosa | 6.5 | Juan Gonzalez | 5.1 |
| 1997 | Larry Walker | 9.0 | Ken Griffey |
9.4 |
| 1996 | Ken Caminiti | 7.9 | Juan Gonzalez | 2.8 |
| 1995 | Barry Larkin |
5.9 | Mo Vaughn | 4.2 |
| 1994 | Jeff Bagwell | 8.9 | Frank Thomas | 6.3 |
| 1993 | Barry Bonds | 10.6 | Frank Thomas | 6.7 |
| 1992 | Barry Bonds | 10.0 | Dennis Eckersley * | 3.0 |
| 1991 | Terry Pendleton | 6.1 | Cal Ripken | 11.0 |
| 1990 | Barry Bonds | 9.7 | Rickey Henderson | 10.0 |
| 1989 | Kevin Mitchell | 7.7 | Robin Yount | 5.7 |
| 1988 | Kirk Gibson | 7.3 | Jose Canseco | 7.6 |
| 1987 | Andre Dawson | 2.7 | George Bell | 5.0 |
| 1986 | Mike Schmidt | 6.6 | Roger Clemens * | 7.9 |
| 1985 | Willie McGee | 8.5 | Don Mattingly | 6.4 |
| 1984 | Ryne Sandberg | 8.5 | Guillermo Hernandez * | 4.8 |
| 1983 | Dale Murphy | 7.2 | Cal Ripken | 8.3 |
| 1982 | Dale Murphy | 6.3 | Robin Yount | 11.5 |
| 1981 | Mike Schmidt | 7.6 | Rollie Fingers * | 4.1 |
| 1980 | Mike Schmidt | 9.1 | George Brett | 9.6 |
| 1979 | Keith Hernandez | 4.4 | Don Baylor | 4.4 |
| Willie Stargell | 2.3 | |||
| 1978 | Dave Parker | 7.1 | Jim Rice | 7.0 |
| 1977 | George Foster | 8.2 | Rod Carew | 10.9 |
| 1976 | Joe Morgan | 10.0 | Thurman Munson | 5.1 |
| 1975 | Joe Morgan | 12.0 | Fred Lynn | 7.1 |
| 1974 | Steve Garvey | 5.1 | Jeff Burroughs | 3.6 |
| 1973 | Pete Rose | 8.5 | Reggie Jackson | 8.1 |
| 1972 | Johnny Bench | 9.1 | Dick Allen | 9.3 |
| 1971 | Joe Torre | 6.8 | Vida Blue * | 8.8 |
| 1970 | Johnny Bench | 6.5 | Boog Powell | 5.4 |
| 1969 | Willie McCovey | 8.9 | Harmon Killebrew | 6.1 |
| 1968 | Bob Gibson * | 11.9 | Denny McLain * | 5.9 |
| 1967 | Orlando Cepeda | 7.1 | Carl Yastrzemski | 12.2 |
| 1966 | Roberto Clemente | 7.3 | Frank Robinson | 8.3 |
| 1965 | Willie Mays | 11.0 | Zoilo Versalles | 7.6 |
| 1964 | Ken Boyer | 5.6 | Brooks Robinson | 8.1 |
| 1963 | Sandy Koufax * | 10.8 | Elston Howard | 5.4 |
| 1962 | Maury Wills | 6.1 | Mickey Mantle | 7.1 |
| 1961 | Frank Robinson | 7.6 | Roger Maris | 7.2 |
| 1960 | Dick Groat | 5.7 | Roger Maris | 7.5 |
| 1959 | Ernie Banks | 10.0 | Nellie Fox | 6.2 |
| 1958 | Ernie Banks | 9.7 | Jackie Jensen | 4.6 |
| 1957 | Hank Aaron | 7.5 | Mickey Mantle | 12.5 |
| 1956 | Don Newcombe * | 4.1 | Mickey Mantle | 12.9 |
| 1955 | Roy Campanella | 5.5 | Yogi Berra | 3.8 |
| 1954 | Willie Mays | 10.2 | Yogi Berra | 6.2 |
| 1953 | Roy Campanella | 7.2 | Al Rosen | 9.7 |
| 1952 | Hank Sauer | 5.3 | Bobby Shantz * | 8.2 |
| 1951 | Roy Campanella | 7.0 | Yogi Berra | 5.1 |
| 1950 | Jim Konstanty * | 4.0 | Phil Rizzuto | 7.1 |
| 1949 | Jackie Robinson | 10.3 | Ted Williams | 9.5 |
| 1948 | Stan Musial | 11.5 | Lou Boudreau | 10.5 |
| 1947 | Bob Elliott | 6.2 | Joe DiMaggio |
5.6 |
| 1946 | Stan Musial | 9.8 | Ted Williams | 11.8 |
| 1945 | Phil Cavarretta | 6.6 | Hal Newhouser * | 8.9 |
| 1944 | Marty Marion | 4.0 | Hal Newhouser * | 7.1 |
| 1943 | Stan Musial | 8.9 | Spud Chandler * | 6.0 |
| 1942 | Mort Cooper * | 6.8 | Joe Gordon | 8.4 |
| 1941 | Dolph Camilli | 6.8 | Joe DiMaggio | 9.4 |
| 1940 | Frank McCormick | 6.0 | Hank Greenberg | 6.4 |
| 1939 | Bucky Walters * | 7.7 | Joe DiMaggio | 8.9 |
| 1938 | Ernie Lombardi | 5.3 | immie Foxx | 7.5 |
| 1937 | Joe Medwick | 8.9 | Charlie Gehringer | 7.6 |
| 1936 | Carl Hubbell * | 9.0 | Lou Gehrig | 9.8 |
| 1935 | Gabby Hartnett | 5.2 | Hank Greenberg | 8.3 |
| 1934 | Dizzy Dean * | 8.1 | Mickey Cochrane | 4.3 |
| 1933 | Carl Hubbell * | 8.2 | Jimmie Foxx | 9.0 |
| 1932 | Chuck Klein | 6.6 | Jimmie Foxx | 10.7 |
| 1931 | Frankie Frisch | 4.4 | Lefty Grove * |
9.4 |
| 1929 | Rogers Hornsby | 11.5 | ||
| 1928 | Jim Bottomley | 5.5 | Mickey Cochrane | 3.7 |
| 1927 | Paul Waner | 7.1 | Lou Gehrig | 12.0 |
| 1926 | Bob O'Farrell | 3.4 | George Burns | 4.5 |
| 1925 | Rogers Hornsby |
10.0 | Roger Peckinpaugh | 2.4 |
| 1924 | Dazzy Vance * | 9.1 | Walter Johnson * | 6.2 |
| 1923 | Babe Ruth | 14.7 | ||
| 1922 | George Sisler | 8.8 | ||
| 1914 | Johnny Evers | 5.1 | Eddie Collins | 11.3 |
| 1913 | Jake Daubert |
3.3 | Walter Johnson * | 12.4 |
| 1912 | Larry Doyle | 5.5 | Tris Speaker | 11.0 |
| 1911 | Frank Schulte |
5.6 | Ty Cobb | 11.4 |
* denotes the player is a pitcher
So, let's take a look at some averages:
| Years | NL AVG WAR | AL AVG WAR |
|---|---|---|
| All Years | 7.62 | 7.62 |
| 2000–2009 | 9.42 | 7.18 |
| 1990–1999 | 8.16 | 6.45 |
| 1980–1989 | 7.15 | 7.09 |
| 1970–1979 | 7.27 | 6.97 |
| 1960–1969 | 8.20 | 7.54 |
| 1950–1959 | 7.05 | 7.63 |
| 1940–1949 | 7.69 | 8.36 |
| 1930–1939 | 7.04 | 8.39 |
| 1920–1929 | 7.77 | 7.47 |
| 1910–1919 | 4.88 | 11.53 |
Wow, so the average WAR for all MVP winners thoughout the history of the National League is 7.62. The average for all MVP winners in American League history also happens to be 7.62. My quick math tells me the average of the two of those is 7.62.
A few notes of interest from this table:
- The NL was way ahead of the AL this decade. Two main reasons: Albert Pujols (3 MVPs at 8.2, 9.6, and 9.2) and Barry Bonds (4 MVPs at—get this—12.5, 12.2, 10.3, and 12.4). The AL had some low-WAR selections this decade in Justin Morneau (3.8 in 2006), Miguel Tejada (5.2 in 2002) and Dustin Pedroia (5.2 in 2008).
- The NL has been ahead of the AL in each decade from the 1960s to date. The AL in the 1950s had strong seasons from Mickey Mantle (12.9 and 12.5 in 1956 and 1957) to help push them over the top.
- The AL was ahead of the NL in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s.
- The 1910s and 1920s (and even 1930s) are incomplete because the award wasn't consistently given until 1931.
- In the 1910s, the AL only named four MVPs, but each one cleared 11 WAR (Ty Cobb with 11.4, Tris Speaker with 11.0, Walter Johnson with 12.4, and Eddie Collins with 11.3). The top NL MVP by WAR in that decade was Frank Schulte at 5.6.
What MVPs had the highest single season WAR?
- Babe Ruth (14.7, 1923)
- Mickey Mantle (12.9, 1956)
- Barry Bonds (12.5, 2001)
- Mickey Mantle (12.5, 1957)
- Barry Bonds (12.4, 2004)
- Walter Johnson (12.4, 1913)
- Barry Bonds (12.2, 2002)
- Carl Yastrzemski (12.2, 1967)
- Joe Morgan (12.0, 1975)
- Lou Gehrig (12.0, 1927)
Note: These are not the ten best seasons in history by WAR. These are just the ten best seasons for players who won the MVP award.
And, of course, the ten (actually eleven, since there's a tie) lowest WAR totals:
- Willie Stargell (2.3, 1979)
- Roger Peckinpaugh (2.4, 1925)
- Andre Dawson (2.7, 1987)
- Juan Gonzalez (2.8, 1996)
- Dennis Eckersley (3.0, 1992)
- Jake Daubert (3.3, 1913)
- Bob O'Farrell (3.4, 1926)
- Jeff Burroughs (3.6, 1974)
- Mickey Cochrane (3.7, 1928)
- Justin Morneau (3.8, 2006)
- Yogi Berra (3.8, 1955)
As that list shows, there are plenty of MVP winners that don't reach 7.62 WAR. Still, the fact that Willie Stargell won and MVP award with a 2.3 WAR season doesn't mean I should use that as my baseline either. So what baseline should I use for finding MVP-type seasons? I hesitate to use the average because, by definition, that means 50% of the players who did win the MVP award didn't even reach that level.
So, let's go back to my original baseline of 6.0 WAR. Of the 181 players who have won MVP awards in MLB history, 133 of them achieved a WAR of 6.0 or above. That's 73%. That, to me, sounds like a pretty good baseline.
Tell me, what do you think is a good baseline for measuring Wins Above MVP Level?
1 recs |
30 comments
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Comments
I like it
Interested to see where this goes.
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My Thoughts
I only have the 2008 and early set when I run these number (have asked Rally for an upgrade yet)
All time there are 980 hitters that went over 6 WAR along will 480 pitchers.
They are fighting for 195 MVP spots or on average 7.5 players per league per year qualify.
Seems high to me. If it is upped to the average of 7.62 then the numbers are:
312 hitters and 141 pitchers which puts the number at 2.3 players per year.
Maybe a nice round number of 7.5 WAR would be better
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 25, 2010 10:23 AM EST reply actions
Six sounds about right to me
I’m shocked Marty Martion missed the cut of being one of the worst MVP selections, all-time. Yay defense.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
Love this stuff.
Thinking out loud — how about looking at the top five (three? seven?) finishers each year and take an average or weighted average? Or ignore the BBWAA MVP and simply look at the best WAR numbers each year. Or combine the two somehow.
I definitely think that this sort of approach (using WAE, WAMVP) is a great way to look at greatness. I’ll be thinking about ways to combine a variety of baselines to help weight career longevity and peak, as I think that’s better than simply doing “best X seasons” where X is arbitrary.
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It almost seems too simple, but...
I’ve been wondering if a WAR + WAE would be a really good metric for Hall of Fame candidacy. Basically, it takes career value, but gives double credit for exceptional seasons.
Again, seems too easy. But it just. might. work.
But do you use WAE3? WAE4? WAE7?
In other words, why would you pick one over the other? I’ve always liked the idea of continuity, where each additional WAR in a season is worth more than the last, instead of a hard, arbitrary cut off.
I’ve toyed with HoF WAR = SUM and it certainly favors high peak vs. longevity, but that too, seems arbitrary. Place to start, though.
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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 25, 2010 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
That's the question
You could raise WAR to an exponent to make a 6 WAR year more valuable than two 3 WAR years, but then the arbitrary question shifts from “what baseline” to “what exponent”.
Some suggest a pennants added approach, though if you do so I suggest reading some of David Gassko’s work before implementing anything you read in Baseball Prospectus’s book. The issue with that is the ease of reaching pennants is not uniform across the decades, with varying league sizes, later the introduction of divisions, and finally the wild card.
Especially the wild card seems to make lots of 3-4 WAR seasons as valuable, maybe a bit more so, than a few 6-7 WAR seasons from a guy who has the same WAR in a shorter career. Getting to the playoffs every year is key, and once there anything can happen. But in the days where best record goes straight to the World Series, you are better off with a superstar like Koufax compared to a steady pitcher with a longer career like Tommy John.
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by RallyMonkey5 on Feb 26, 2010 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
It would be interesting to see how team performance plays into all of this
Which guys who were undeserving MVP’s according to WAR:
a. won thanks to gaudy counting stats that don’t necessarily translate to value
b. won thanks to team perfrmance
c. won for some other reason
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by Satchel Price on Feb 25, 2010 11:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Like catchers
I see quite a few catchers that won with WAR on the lower side. It just seems catchers have a harder time putting up gaudy WAR totals. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that you don’t see many catchers playing 150 games. So, their value total has a disadvantage right there. That helps explain why you don’t see a catcher until you hit #52 all time in position player WAR.
I wonder if there’s something else at work here. Is their some other trait catchers possess that isn’t captured in that “Catch” rating (but is visible to fans)? The most obvious trait I can think of that catchers get a lot of credit for that simply isn’t captured in WAR is “calling a good game”. There’s really no way to score this that I can think of.
Catchers definitely get bonus points for being catchers
It’s regarded as the most difficult position to play, and as we’ve seen in the past, baseball people like to attribute leadership skills and ability to work with a pitching staff to catchers as part of their value, even though it’s really unquantifiable.
And of course, there’s the fact that it’s undoubtedly the most physically demanding position to play, which accounts for the lack of longevity for catchers in terms of PA in single seasons and on a career level.
This is some very cool stuff, Adam.
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by Satchel Price on Feb 25, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Yogi's 3.8 WAR in '55
I loved Yogi as much as anyone else, but Kaline’s 9 WAR in ’55 showed he was deserved of an MVP that year.
While New York finished 96-58 and won the pennant while Detroit finished 79-75 and in eighth place.
I’m still surprised, just like you. Even looking at traditional stats, it’s clear that Kaline was better:
Berra: .272 BA, 27 HR, 108 RBI, 147 hits and 84 runs scored in 147 games
Kaline: .340 BA, 27 HR, 102 RBI, 200 hits and 121 runs scored in 152 games
Even factoring for Kaline being a right fielder and Berra being a catcher, and I don’t see how Berra was more valuable that year. There’s an MVP we can chalk up to team performance.
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by Satchel Price on Feb 25, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Kaline also...
led the league in total bases with 321. well “The Six” did win the Sporting News Player of the Year Award as well as in ‘63.
Team performance and MVP’s will usually go hand in hand.
by KalineCountry on Feb 26, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
And look at this
From 1950 to 1963, a 14 year span, the Yankees had 10 MVPs, and eight of those came in a ten year span. Rizzuto, Mantle, Berra, Maris and Howard all took home the award at least once, with Berra taking it three times, Mantle three times, and Maris twice. Jeez.
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Morneau didn't have a great season
But that year was pretty bad for the AL – Mauer had 7.0 WAR, but Pedroia and Youkilis both had 4.3.
As an aside, how does Rally’s put Mauer’s 2008 at 45 batting runs while Fangraphs comes in at 27. Two wins difference seems like a lot; I’m wondering which system is “correct”.
Depends on what you like to base your weights on
Rally’s database reconciles run scoring at the team level. FanGraphs’ weights reconcile at the league level. That’s the big difference.
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For Baseline
I’d go with 6.4 WAR. That gets you the top 67% of the guys that have ever won it. Also, if anyone is wondering, the median MVP WAR is 7.55 and the mode MVP WAR is 7.1. Now that I’m thinking about it, though, this does seem really arbitrary. Perhaps you should look at some percentage of the average WAR for the top AL and NL pitcher and position player for each year.
If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
Good question
And certainly worth a future post. I’m gonna have to (finally) do some deep digging into the WAR database.
How about using a player's performance for the baseline?
Mauer’s performance this last year might be a good baseline (7.9 WAR). You can round it up to 8 WAR if you want.
Then you get to call it WAM! (exclamation point for emphasis) for Wins Above Mauer.
Great name, but...
Attempting to tally wins above a player that happens to be his league’s best hitter AND a Gold Glover at the game’s toughest position may not bear much fruit. Alas, the only player who can record WAM! might be M! himself. :)
So, how long until we have WAMW? (Wins Above Matt Wieters)
by adarowski on Feb 26, 2010 7:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In 2006
Carlos Beltran had an 8.0 WAR season for the 97-win Mets, but lost the MVP to a guy with a 5.8 WAR whose Phillies finished 12 games behind the Mets.
In 2007, David Wright had a 7.8 WAR season for the 88 win Mets, but lost the MVP to a guy with a 6.1 WAR whose Phillies finished one game ahead of the Mets.
I’m glad the MVP voters are consistent.
2009 Did Not Happen
to be fair..
using fangraphs
in 2006 ryan howard had a 7.0 WAR with a 6.77 WPA/LI. the dude was CLUTCH AND posted a high WAR
Beltran posted a 3.99 WPA/LI and a 7.0 WAR.
howard was a beast that year.
by jamiethekiller on Feb 26, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
true
but the next year, Wright had a 4.99 WPA/LI while Rollins had a 2.47, and Wright posted an 8.4 WAR to Rollins’ 6.7.
My problem isn’t so much that either Howard or Rollins won the MVP, it’s that there is no consistency to it. If Howard deserved it in ‘06, then Wright deserved it in ’07. Or, if Rollins deserved it in ’07, then Beltran deserved it in ’06. (Or, the argument could certainly be made, Pujols should have won it both years, and should be going for his 5th in a row. I’m a Mets fan, so I’m ignoring that argument for right now haha)
2009 Did Not Happen
The problem with the voters in 2006
is that they felt like the Mets’ other stars “canceled each other out,” even though Beltran was the clear-cut best player they had that year.
But the David Wright non-MVP season was just ridiculous. He was so far and away better than Rollins that year. His numbers were just so phenomenally well rounded—it was his best defensive season too, to boot (going by his 4.9 UZR).
In addition, I had thought if David Wright didn’t win it in 2007, the voters would choose Matt Holliday. Holliday had a much better season than Rollins (8.0 WAR to 6.7 WAR) and was just as instrumental in the Rockies’ own rise to the playoffs. I may be a biased Mets fan, but the Rockies’ comeback of going 14-1 or so down the stretch to make the playoffs was far more momentous than the Phillies’ run, which was mostly just a product of ineptitude.
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Even before Bonds went on his suspected steroid binge
he was such a beast for the Pirates.
Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.
Barry Bonds was on his way to being one of the best players of all time
the steroids simply took him to monster level, the most dominant, valuable player since Babe Ruth himself. Either way, he was going to end up being a legend.
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by Satchel Price on Feb 26, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

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