2010 Player Projections - David Ortiz

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 24, 2010 11:53 AM EST

I started a series like this over at Royal's Review and I continue it here with various players throughout the league. About every couple days until opening day, I will be looking at the projections for various players and see if you think the player will do better, the same or worse than those projections. We will be using the data from Fangraphs and the poll question will be based off the Chone projection system.

We will begin with David Ortiz. Here is how the various projection systems have David measuring up:

Basic

Season	Team	G	AB	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2010	Bill James	138	484	561	128	64	34	1	29	79	99	77	112	0	0	0.264
2010	CHONE	139	528	608	136	80	25	1	30	84	96	76	120	1	1	0.258
2010	Marcel		481	563	127	68	33	1	25	78	89	74	104	2	1	0.264
2010	Fans (115)	136	497	568	129	67	33	1	28	84	85	71	113	1	0	0.260

Advanced

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	ISO	wRC	wOBA	wRC+
2010	Bill James	14%	23%	0.69	0.369	0.519	0.255	91.9	0.382	137
2010	CHONE	13%	23%	0.63	0.355	0.479	0.221	90.6	0.364	124
2010	Marcel	13%	22%	0.71	0.363	0.493	0.229	85.3	0.367	126
2010	Fans (115)	13%	23%	0.63	0.352	0.499	0.239	84.5	0.363	124

I am not here to influence your vote, just want to see what you think.

Poll

Will David do better, same or worse than the line of: 139 games, 528 AB, 30 HR .258/.355/.479

Better

72 votes

Same

74 votes

Worse

171 votes

317 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 14 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

it’s all about staying healthy. he was so terrible for the first couple months last year, if he can even be semi-productive to begin the season he could end up with better numbers

by packimop on Feb 24, 2010 12:28 PM EST reply actions

Interesting that the Fans aren't more optimistic than Marcel or CHONE.

For guys with big enough sample sizes, can you also break down the Fans projection by fan of the team/not fan of the team?

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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 24, 2010 12:42 PM EST reply actions

I'm sure that Jeff can, but I was interested in looking, too, so I did.

54 Red Sox fans project Ortiz for a .371 wOBA with 30 home runs, while 60 non-fans project him for a .353 wOBA and 26 home runs. Sox fans are more optimistic that his power will return to 2008 levels.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 24, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

Good stuff.

Two adjustments I hope David (or Tango or whoever) makes to the Fans data:

Normalize each teams’ fans so they show the same level of optimism for their own team. If Mariner fans are projecting wOBAs 10% higher than CHONE, but Yankee fans are 20% higher, bring them more together. Maybe not exactly the same, because perhaps Yankee fans are right that CHONE (or whatever) is underestimating the Yankees, but I feel like some teams will receive different levels of fanboyness at Fangraphs.
Normalize the percentage of ballots for each team by fans and non-fans. If MetsBlog send over three billion voters, Mets player projections will be weighted more heavily towards Mets’ fans opinions. Assuming fans of a team show more optimism than non-fans, we should account for the voting split.

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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 24, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

I'm a Sox fan and...

Yeah, yeah, he hit more homers than anyone else from June 5th on. Well, I happen to think the projections are dead on. Only thing is, I don’t expect him to stay that healthy. 600 PA may be a lot to ask.

I can easily see Mike Lowell getting 350-400 PAs with this club. I just hope everyone can stay happy.

by adarowski on Feb 24, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions

I can't see Mike Lowell breaking camp with this club.

I’d guess Ortiz still has a tendency to sit verse lefties, but we don’t really have a good right handed bat off the bench either, so yeah.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Feb 25, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

Theo said today that he thought Lowell would be a bat off the bench.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Feb 25, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

See, I love that.

He’s a righty to give Ortiz some rest. He can back up Beltre or Youk. He can pinch hit. Seriously, he can get a lot of at bats.

by adarowski on Feb 25, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

I will break them apart next time

Also, let me know if their are any other players you want seen done.

I figured I would do
1. Brad Lidge
2. Jason Bay
3. Matt Weiters

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 24, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

The Wieters one I'm looking forward to

Some other guys I’d like to see, off the top of my head, are Jay Bruce and Josh Hamilton.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 24, 2010 3:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Josh Hamilton is great one.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 24, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

He's got to be one of the most unpredictable players

in terms of performance, going into next season. We all know about the talent and the upside, but the guy seems to have some serious personal issues.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 26, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

You can't project Matt Wieters' numbers.

Matt Wieters writes history as he damn well pleases.

by adarowski on Feb 24, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

Mostly agree

I like the power numbers, but I expect his Avg and OBP to be a bit higher. In my mind, if he’s going to hit ~60 hr and 2b it means he’s got his swing back and he can produce at more of his 2007 levels.

by brogshan on Feb 25, 2010 9:01 AM EST reply actions