Wrist Injuries and Power: A Quick Glance
It's another one of those baseball saws. A wrist injury saps a batter's power and can continue to do so during a long recovery period. Spurred on by a question from Jeff Zimmerman, I decided to take a quick look into the truth of the matter.
I'll preface this article by saying my methodology was quick and dirty at best, and should by no means be taken as the final answer to the question.
Using Josh Hermsmeyer's wonderful injury database, I found all the batters with wrist injuries between 2002 and 2008. For each, I calculated their projected isolated power (SLG - BA) upon return using Marcel projections. As a simplification, if a player returned from their injury before July 1st, I used that year's projection. If he returned after July 1st, I looked at the next season. Finally, I compared the batter's actual ISO to the projected ISO to determine whether he was hitting with less power than expected.
Let me start off with some summary results, with the full data to follow below.
Of the 77 injuries (some players appear multiple times in the list), 32 bettered their projected slugging, while 45 did worse.
The overall mean difference between the projected ISO and the actual was -0.030, which is pretty substantial. To be fair, that includes 11 players who didn't play after their injuries.
Update: Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies pointed out that if I remove those players, the average drop is -0.007 points of ISO, which is quite a bit less. I'm not sure whether those players who didn't return should be counted or not in this so I'll present it both ways.
Finally, the correlation between days on the DL and a drop in ISO was 0.044, which could mean a whole host of things ranging from no relationship at all, to some players trying to come back too quickly and decreasing the days on the DL, or even the reverse.
It appears there may be something to the idea that wrist injuries take away a player's power during his recovery.
To do this right, there should be a lot more stringency around the choice of dates for the projections and the actual performance. Also, the study should look at the effects over time and see when recovery does occur (if ever). This quick look showed enough promise though, that it's probably worth investing the time for further study (hint, hint).
Without further adieu, here's the data:
| Last Name | First Name | Year | On DL | Off DL | DL Days | Description | Projected ISO | Actual ISO | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colbrunn | Greg | 2004 | 2003-07-02 | 2003-09-28 | 88 | Surgery | 0.2143 | 0 | -0.2143 |
| Colbrunn | Greg | 2004 | 2004-05-15 | 2004-06-21 | 37 | Tendinitis | 0.2143 | 0 | -0.2143 |
| Hidalgo | Richard | 2006 | 2005-08-04 | 2005-10-03 | 60 | Fracture | 0.2067 | 0 | -0.2067 |
| Colbrunn | Greg | 2005 | 2004-06-28 | 2004-09-15 | 79 | Surgery | 0.198 | 0 | -0.198 |
| Garcia | Karim | 2005 | 2004-06-24 | 2004-07-09 | 15 | Tendinitis | 0.1739 | 0 | -0.1739 |
| Ward | Daryle | 2003 | 2003-05-29 | 2003-06-17 | 19 | Tendinitis | 0.181 | 0.0092 | -0.1718 |
| McDougall | Marshall | 2006 | 2006-03-28 | 2006-04-12 | 15 | Surgery | 0.1554 | 0 | -0.1554 |
| Colbrunn | Greg | 2006 | 2005-04-04 | 2005-10-06 | 185 | Surgery | 0.1547 | 0 | -0.1547 |
| Lankford | Ray | 2005 | 2004-07-21 | 2004-09-01 | 42 | Soreness | 0.1535 | 0 | -0.1535 |
| Ugueto | Luis | 2003 | 2002-08-07 | 2002-09-01 | 25 | Sprain | 0.1515 | 0 | -0.1515 |
| Costa | Shane | 2009 | 2008-09-01 | 2008-09-30 | 29 | Surgery | 0.1215 | 0 | -0.1215 |
| Robles | Oscar | 2008 | 2007-08-31 | 2007-09-15 | 15 | Tear | 0.1162 | 0 | -0.1162 |
| Johnson | Nick | 2009 | 2008-05-16 | 2008-09-30 | 137 | Tear | 0.2078 | 0.1138 | -0.094 |
| Ginter | Keith | 2005 | 2004-07-24 | 2004-08-28 | 35 | Sprain | 0.1893 | 0.1022 | -0.0871 |
| Ojeda | Miguel | 2005 | 2004-08-16 | 2004-09-01 | 16 | Contusion | 0.158 | 0.0784 | -0.0796 |
| Sheffield | Gary | 2006 | 2006-05-06 | 2006-05-23 | 17 | Contusion | 0.2288 | 0.1523 | -0.0765 |
| Gonzalez | Wiki | 2002 | 2002-04-04 | 2002-05-15 | 41 | Fracture | 0.1554 | 0.0793 | -0.0761 |
| Pride | Curtis | 2005 | 2005-05-28 | 2005-06-22 | 25 | Strain | 0.159 | 0.0909 | -0.0681 |
| Lee | Derrek | 2006 | 2006-04-19 | 2006-06-25 | 67 | Fracture | 0.2533 | 0.1886 | -0.0647 |
| Wilson | Vance | 2005 | 2004-09-14 | 2004-10-04 | 20 | Surgery | 0.1494 | 0.0855 | -0.0639 |
| Garcia | Karim | 2003 | 2003-05-07 | 2003-06-23 | 47 | Inflammation | 0.2163 | 0.1598 | -0.0565 |
| Werth | Jayson | 2005 | 2005-04-04 | 2005-05-25 | 51 | Fracture | 0.1959 | 0.1395 | -0.0564 |
| Ortiz | David | 2009 | 2008-05-31 | 2008-07-25 | 55 | Tear | 0.2795 | 0.2237 | -0.0558 |
| Lee | Derrek | 2007 | 2006-07-23 | 2006-08-28 | 36 | Inflammation | 0.2477 | 0.1957 | -0.052 |
| Mientkiewicz | Doug | 2008 | 2007-06-02 | 2007-09-02 | 92 | Fracture | 0.1517 | 0.1017 | -0.05 |
| Segui | David | 2003 | 2002-05-19 | 2002-09-30 | 134 | Surgery | 0.1687 | 0.1205 | -0.0482 |
| Segui | David | 2004 | 2003-07-25 | 2003-09-28 | 65 | Surgery | 0.1424 | 0.1017 | -0.0407 |
| Tejada | Miguel | 2008 | 2007-06-21 | 2007-07-27 | 36 | Fracture | 0.1709 | 0.1314 | -0.0395 |
| Matthews | Gary | 2003 | 2002-08-25 | 2002-09-11 | 17 | Tendinitis | 0.1471 | 0.1132 | -0.0339 |
| Navarro | Dioner | 2006 | 2006-05-04 | 2006-06-15 | 42 | Bruise | 0.1343 | 0.1008 | -0.0335 |
| Kent | Jeff | 2006 | 2006-05-28 | 2006-06-13 | 16 | Sprain | 0.2169 | 0.1843 | -0.0326 |
| Kapler | Gabe | 2003 | 2002-06-23 | 2002-07-16 | 23 | Tendinitis | 0.1519 | 0.12 | -0.0319 |
| Brown | Dee | 2004 | 2003-05-27 | 2003-07-19 | 53 | Sprain | 0.1288 | 0.0974 | -0.0314 |
| Gonzalez | Luis A. | 2006 | 2006-05-27 | 2006-06-11 | 15 | Inflammation | 0.1452 | 0.1141 | -0.0311 |
| Molina | Yadier | 2007 | 2007-05-29 | 2007-06-28 | 30 | Fracture | 0.1175 | 0.0935 | -0.024 |
| Pena | Wily Mo | 2007 | 2006-05-26 | 2006-07-18 | 53 | Surgery | 0.2087 | 0.1868 | -0.0219 |
| Hudson | Orlando | 2009 | 2008-08-09 | 2008-09-30 | 52 | Dislocated | 0.1517 | 0.1343 | -0.0174 |
| Macias | Jose | 2003 | 2002-09-10 | 2002-09-30 | 20 | Sprain | 0.1293 | 0.1139 | -0.0154 |
| Vizcaino | Jose | 2004 | 2003-06-24 | 2003-08-21 | 58 | Fracture | 0.1129 | 0.1006 | -0.0123 |
| Drew | J.D. | 2006 | 2005-07-03 | 2005-10-03 | 92 | Break | 0.2269 | 0.2146 | -0.0123 |
| Werth | Jayson | 2007 | 2006-04-02 | 2006-10-03 | 184 | Surgery | 0.1697 | 0.1608 | -0.0089 |
| Mirabelli | Doug | 2005 | 2005-05-18 | 2005-06-12 | 25 | Sprain | 0.1898 | 0.1839 | -0.0059 |
| Sheffield | Gary | 2007 | 2006-05-29 | 2006-09-19 | 113 | Surgery | 0.2 | 0.1963 | -0.0037 |
| Everett | Adam | 2005 | 2004-08-06 | 2004-09-29 | 54 | Break | 0.1191 | 0.1166 | -0.0025 |
| Encarnacion | Juan | 2007 | 2007-03-30 | 2007-05-13 | 44 | Surgery | 0.164 | 0.1625 | -0.0015 |
| Pence | Hunter | 2008 | 2007-07-22 | 2007-08-21 | 30 | Fracture | 0.1962 | 0.1966 | 0.0004 |
| Lugo | Julio | 2003 | 2002-07-20 | 2002-09-30 | 72 | Fracture | 0.1362 | 0.1385 | 0.0023 |
| Cameron | Mike | 2005 | 2005-04-03 | 2005-05-05 | 32 | Tendinitis | 0.2021 | 0.2046 | 0.0025 |
| Molina | Bengie | 2004 | 2003-09-03 | 2003-09-28 | 25 | Break | 0.1233 | 0.1276 | 0.0043 |
| Doumit | Ryan | 2008 | 2007-08-13 | 2007-09-08 | 26 | Sprain | 0.1769 | 0.1833 | 0.0064 |
| Matsui | Hideki | 2007 | 2006-05-11 | 2006-09-12 | 124 | Break | 0.1963 | 0.2029 | 0.0066 |
| Edmonds | Jim | 2002 | 2002-06-01 | 2002-06-16 | 15 | Sprain | 0.2427 | 0.25 | 0.0073 |
| Wells | Vernon | 2008 | 2008-05-09 | 2008-06-07 | 29 | Fracture | 0.1883 | 0.1967 | 0.0084 |
| Aybar | Willy | 2008 | 2007-03-31 | 2007-09-30 | 183 | Bruise | 0.1476 | 0.1574 | 0.0098 |
| Burrell | Pat | 2005 | 2004-08-03 | 2004-09-03 | 31 | Surgery | 0.2099 | 0.2225 | 0.0126 |
| Hamilton | Josh | 2008 | 2007-07-07 | 2007-08-12 | 36 | Sprain | 0.2119 | 0.2259 | 0.014 |
| Snelling | Chris | 2005 | 2004-04-04 | 2004-10-03 | 182 | Break | 0.1571 | 0.1724 | 0.0153 |
| Phillips | Andy | 2008 | 2007-09-04 | 2007-10-01 | 27 | Fracture | 0.132 | 0.1538 | 0.0218 |
| Jenkins | Geoff | 2003 | 2003-03-25 | 2003-04-09 | 15 | Bruise | 0.2194 | 0.2423 | 0.0229 |
| Jones | Chipper | 2007 | 2007-05-24 | 2007-06-13 | 20 | Bruise | 0.2438 | 0.2671 | 0.0233 |
| Hernandez | Ramon | 2006 | 2005-06-18 | 2005-07-07 | 19 | Sprain | 0.1774 | 0.2036 | 0.0262 |
| Hernandez | Ramon | 2006 | 2005-07-24 | 2005-09-02 | 40 | Surgery | 0.1774 | 0.2036 | 0.0262 |
| Kent | Jeff | 2004 | 2003-06-18 | 2003-07-16 | 28 | Tendinitis | 0.2162 | 0.2426 | 0.0264 |
| Kent | Jeff | 2002 | 2002-03-21 | 2002-04-06 | 16 | Fracture | 0.2218 | 0.252 | 0.0302 |
| Johnson | Nick | 2003 | 2002-08-07 | 2002-09-03 | 27 | Bruise | 0.1568 | 0.1882 | 0.0314 |
| Mientkiewicz | Doug | 2005 | 2004-07-07 | 2004-07-23 | 16 | Soreness | 0.1333 | 0.1673 | 0.034 |
| Maxwell | Justin | 2009 | 2008-09-01 | 2008-09-30 | 29 | Break | 0.1649 | 0.2022 | 0.0373 |
| Blalock | Hank | 2009 | 2008-04-25 | 2008-07-18 | 84 | Tear | 0.1802 | 0.2251 | 0.0449 |
| Weeks | Rickie | 2007 | 2006-07-24 | 2006-10-02 | 70 | Surgery | 0.146 | 0.1981 | 0.0521 |
| Weeks | Rickie | 2007 | 2007-05-30 | 2007-06-18 | 19 | Tendinitis | 0.146 | 0.1981 | 0.0521 |
| Clark | Tony | 2009 | 2009-05-04 | 2009-06-19 | 46 | Strain | 0.1788 | 0.2424 | 0.0636 |
| Werth | Jayson | 2003 | 2003-03-29 | 2003-04-13 | 15 | Strain | 0.1435 | 0.2084 | 0.0649 |
| Werth | Jayson | 2008 | 2007-06-28 | 2007-08-01 | 34 | Sprain | 0.1548 | 0.2249 | 0.0701 |
| Bradley | Milton | 2007 | 2007-04-23 | 2007-05-11 | 18 | Strain | 0.1666 | 0.2393 | 0.0727 |
| Barajas | Rod | 2004 | 2003-07-05 | 2003-07-23 | 18 | Tendinitis | 0.1302 | 0.2039 | 0.0737 |
| Bay | Jason | 2004 | 2003-05-25 | 2003-08-27 | 94 | Fracture | 0.1842 | 0.2677 | 0.0835 |
| Mench | Kevin | 2004 | 2003-07-08 | 2003-09-28 | 82 | Break | 0.1637 | 0.2603 | 0.0966 |
1 recs |
6 comments
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Comments
Thanks Dan
Another angle could be to look at batted balls data. Last year Ortiz was having problem pulling the ball until end of season. A person could look to see how long until the player is able to get around on the ball.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 23, 2010 10:45 PM EST reply actions
I like the sorta pun also
Another angle could be to look at batted balls data
by vivaelpujols on Feb 24, 2010 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
Immediately reminded me of Jorge Cantu's injury last season
We could also be missing something if a player “toughed it out” and went day-to-day with an injury that could have warranted a DL stint. Of course, there isn’t much of a way to check on that, but i imagine that a correlation to DL days and ISO drop would have a lot of noise.
Great work Dan.
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Nice work Dan
I wonder if things look different if you just look at contact ISO (removing strikeouts from the equation).
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I was under the impression
That a serious wrist injury takes a full year to recover from. So if you got hurt in 07 it would take till 09 to recover your full power.

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