FanPost

How Many Wins Did Teams Lose To Injury?

I thought I might be able to whip up a quick but interesting and possibly useful metric to gauge the number of wins lost or saved due to injury from the table Jeff whipped up.  I like the percent of salary measure, but I thought the total days tally might be more telling of training staff aptitude.  If you assume that the team loses a 1.5 WAR/150G player and has to call up a replacement level player and .85*Days Missed = Games Missed, then we can use the table and say

.85*DM*1.5/150 = .01*GM = WAR lost to injury

I'm guessing most actual team coefficients are somewhere between .005 and .013. 1/100 is nice and round. .0088 is 33 WAR per 25 players per season.  If the best players get by far the most playing time, I assume they will get injured the most.  So, .01 it is.  Presumably there's a correlation between cost and talent, so if a team tends to lose expensive players to injury, this metric will understate the actual wins lost.  But I assume that injuries are distributed such that good expensive players get injured relatively little.

Chart?

Chart.


TeamTotal DaysAvg Days/SeasonWAR Lost/162GWARLAA/162G
ANA 1864 233 1.98 -4.05
CHW 2135 266.875 2.27 -3.77
HOU 3888 486 4.13 -1.90
SF 4202 525.25 4.46 -1.57
PHI 4540 567.5 4.82 -1.21
PIT 4759 594.875 5.06 -0.98
MIL 4862 607.75 5.17 -0.87
TBA 4898 612.25 5.20 -0.83
MIN 4917 614.625 5.22 -0.81
OAK 5211 651.375 5.54 -0.50
TOR 5243 655.375 5.57 -0.46
SEA 5245 655.625 5.57 -0.46
CHC 5444 680.5 5.78 -0.25
CLE 5499 687.375 5.84 -0.19
BOS 5556 694.5 5.90 -0.13
COL 5768 721 6.13 0.09
SD 5964 745.5 6.34 0.30
FLO 6007 750.875 6.38 0.35
NYY 6107 763.375 6.49 0.45
ARI 6347 793.375 6.74 0.71
STL 6370 796.25 6.77 0.73
ATL 6574 821.75 6.98 0.95
DET 6621 827.625 7.03 1.00
LAD 6717 839.625 7.14 1.10
CIN 6894 861.75 7.32 1.29
KCR 7206 900.75 7.66 1.62
WAS 7395 924.375 7.86 1.82
BAL 7716 964.5 8.20 2.16
NYM 7922 990.25 8.42 2.38
TEX 8521 1065.125 9.05 3.02

WARLAA = WAR Lost Above Average, so negative is better.   Anyway, the White Sox are apparently good at this health stuff.  I assume this explains some of the disparity between their projections and performance.  It looks like team health is worth +/-3 wins or so per season, which they and the Angels made the most of.  That's obviously a very significant number of wins, the equivalent of adding another above average player to the team.  It would also appear that percent salary lost and this little metric correlate okay, but that's only employing the eyeball test.  Thoughts?

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