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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

A Plea for Larry Walker

I know, I know, the time isn't exactly perfect for this considering that it's a nearly a year before everyone will get back into Hall of Fame voting discussion mode. But the post by our newest addition, Adam Darowski, got me scouring over the Top 500 all-time WAR leader board for position players compiled by Sean Smith. And, well, there isn't a whole lot else to write about and I found this interesting.

I got into the range where you start to get into some of the biggest fringe Hall candidates, in the 65-70 WAR range, where guys like Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez and Alan Trammell, all deserving Hall guys based on the previously set standard in my opinion, come in.

But sandwiched in between Martinez and Thome, two of the great hitters in recent memory, is another big bopper from the same era, a guy who I was surprised to see so high on the list: Larry Walker. Of course, everyone remembers Walker's incredible talent, but just as quickly, his inability to stay healthy would come to mind as well.

Looking at his numbers though, it seems that people may have written Walker off as a Hall candidate a bit too soon. Not only is his career WAR better than guys who had no trouble finding their way into the Hall, such as Eddie Murray, Willie McCovey and Ernie Banks, but his other numbers are almost equally as impressive.

Star-divide

His career OPS of .965 is 17th all-time, his .565 SLG is 16th all-time, and his adjusted OPS+ is tied for 71st, not nearly as impressive but still markedly better than some of his peers. He's one of only 58 players to finish his career with an OBP over .400. He posted OPS marks over 1.075 on four occasions, won three batting titles, an NL MVP and seven Gold Gloves, while going to the All-Star Game five times.

He posted WAR marks above 2.0 in 14 seasons, marks above 4.0 in 8 seasons, and marks above 5.8 in 4 seasons, peaking with an awesome 9.0 WAR in his 1997 MVP season. He spent his entire career in right field, and was an above average defender there, with a career TotalZone mark of +41, and the seven Gold Gloves certainly don't hurt.

He got docked for putting up his huge numbers in pre-humidor Coors Field, but even when adjusting for park and league factors, he was still an impressive hitter. Look at his wRC+ marks in each of his seasons with at least 450 plate appearances: 118, 131, 148, 131, 154, 133, 184, 163, 172, 169, 152, 125. He finished with a career wOBA of .414 and a career wRC+ of 145. His wOBA is good for 35th all-time, and his wRC+ is still a solid 61st all-time, tied with Rickey Henderson and Duke Snider.

And for a little bit of extra perspective, Andre Dawson finished with a 56.8 WAR (130th among position players), Tony Perez finished with a 50.3 WAR (167th), Orlando Cepeda finished with a 46.6 WAR (197th) and then there's of course Jim Rice, who finished with 41.5 WAR, 258th among position players all-time.

Yeah, Walker had trouble staying healthy, but he was consistently healthy enough to be a near star-level player for most of his career, and during his full seasons he was among the best players in the game. If all of the guys listed above are in the Hall, then there certainly should be a place for Larry Kenneth Robert Walker.

And even if you're in the camp that doesn't consider any of those guys deserving, as I am, then Walker still deserves a very long look, because his statistical pedigree is simply too impressive to ignore. This is merely a relatively early plea for the baseball world to give Walker's candidacy the close look that it deserves, because he had one helluva career.

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I imagine you'll get a lot of response from Rockies fans

Especially considering that this piece was linked over at Purple Row, but let me be the first.

Larry Walker was an excellent player at every facet of the game. He ran the bases well, to the point that he was a 40-30 guy, and ended up with 230 steals. He played right field as well as anyone, with terrific range complimented by an absolute cannon. One of my favorite radio calls growing up was when Walker would gun someone down at home and Wayne Hagin (then the Rockies announcer) would yell “you don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit in the wind and you don’t run on Larry Walker”. His hitting exploits are obvious, but a quick glance at that ‘97 MVP campaign are jaw-dropping: .366/.452/.720, 49 HR, 33 SB. He had 409 TB that year. Sure his home park was Coors, but those numbers are still amazing. He was the most popular Rockie of the time, and even years after he left Colorado, he was still voted the Rockies’ “Hometown hero” on ESPN for the series they did a few years ago, even over Todd Helton.

Will he get docked for playing a mile high? Probably. Does he deserve the Hall? I think so. Thanks for the article. I really enjoyed it.

by controlled_slide on Feb 16, 2010 11:52 AM EST reply actions  

I love that Rally's baserunning metric supports the notion that Walker was an excellent baserunner.

+40 runs over his career and he averaged +3.75 from ’92 to ’99 (although a bit of that value is SB/CS, and yes, I cherry-picked). Also +13 runs career at avoiding GIDPs. (But -9 runs for ROE.)

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 16, 2010 12:02 PM EST reply actions  

Fame Factor

Greatest Canadian bat ever (at least for now) should also get him a little bit of the “mystique” or “fame” or whatever factor as well. Should be in, probably (regrettably) won’t make it.

Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.

by Jevant on Feb 16, 2010 12:24 PM EST reply actions  

As a Rockies fan, I'm extremely biased, but

Larry needs to be the Hall. The guy was the definition of a five-tool player. It’s not his fault he played half his games at Coors Canaveral

by alacy9513 on Feb 16, 2010 12:32 PM EST reply actions  

He reminds me of Edmonds

Both Walker and Edmonds are two guys who sneak up on you with their value. Both were insane defenders, combining both range and arm. Neither reached any particular offensive milestones that catch voters’ eyes, but both were absolutely absurd on offense. Walker’s 75% steal rate in addition to the steals only helps as well (Edmonds counters the baserunning value with the center field positional adjustment).

I’ll be honest. If you asked me a year ago if I thought either of these guys were Hall candidates, I’d have said probably not to Walker and no to Edmonds. I have completely changed my tune on both of them in recent months, though.

When these two guys are both eligible for the Hall, the highest WAR for eligible non-HOFers will be:

1. Bill Dahlen
2. Lou Whitaker
3. Barry Larkin
4. Bobby Grich
5. Larry Walker
6. Jim Edmonds

Tough to say where the cutoff should be, but arguably it should be down below all six of them.

by adarowski on Feb 16, 2010 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

Edmonds is another guy

that the nation (or at least the media) didn’t seem to appreciate quite how good he was while he was playing.

Edmonds was overshadowed by Pujols during his rise to brilliance, and Walker was grouped in with the likes of Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla as a good hitter who took advantage of Coors. In reality though, both were among the very best players in the game for pretty sizable periods of time.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 16, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

And the highest WAR among 2011 HOF candidates actually includes

Jeff Bagwell (79.9 WAR, 35th all-time), better than all of the players you listed.

Additionally, Alan Trammell is sandwiched between Walker and Edmonds.

It’ll be interesting to see how guys in the #90-#140 range, like Rolen, Andruw Jones, Guerrero, Kent, Piazza and Olerud, fair. Rolen should end up being a pretty good bet if he can put in a few more solid years.

I still think that guys like Dick Allen, Graig Nettles and Dwight Evans probably deserve to be in as well if guys like Dawson and Rice are getting in.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 16, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Walker absolutely belongs.

The problem is that people lazily take Coors field and decide it makes all his numbers fake. Like they actually didn’t do anything at all. Instead of trying to figure out how his numbers would look in a neutral setting, like they should.

by philkid3 on Feb 16, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions  

What I don't understand

is how someone can take a hitter with some of the greatest rate statistics of all-time and simply attribute the majority of that to park factors. Walker wasn’t just great when he was in Colorado, he was an absolute force as a hitter. Adjusting for the park, and the numbers are still special on a historic level.

That’s one big problem with the HOF voting process though: some voters are simply too lazy to actually question commonly accepted ideas surrounding a player’s reputation, or they choose to make up their own reasons for or against voting for someone.

I just hope that the baseball community can get the Walker ball rolling, because this guy deserves a spot in there.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 16, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Well heck

Think of all the time we’ll have on our hands when Blyleven is inducted. Guess we can put that effort towards Walker/Edmonds/Thome (I fear Thome will gett he Edgar treatment).

by adarowski on Feb 16, 2010 2:41 PM EST reply actions  

That's a hell of a distinction

Recently, I was curious about one-and-done Hall of Fame guys and who was the best. Lou Whitaker is the current all time WAR leader (69.5) among players that fell off the Hall of Fame ballot after one try. Jimmy Wynn is the all time leader (59.8) among players to never receive a single vote.

For pitchers, it’s Rick Reuschel (66.3) as the top guy and Frank Tanana (55.1) leading the never-had-a-vote crew.

by adarowski on Feb 16, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

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