Sky's Bet Tracker
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 15, 2010 2:38 PM EST
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Every season I find myself making performance bets with various people around the intertubes. I usually take the side of The Data and I usually win (thank you, selective memory.) For example, last year, I won a bet by arguing Gary Sheffield was not going to keep up his first half surge. The year before I won a bet by arguing Gabe Gross was not going to keep up his clutch-tastic streak.
My winnings?
and
Anyway, enough gloating about my laurels. I'm creating this thread to keep track of any bets I make for the 2010 season. If you'd like to offer me any in the comments, feel free. I don't bet money or anything with materialistic value, but I'm happy to move beyond avatar bets. 2010 team wins under/overs aren't a bad place to start.
Just make sure you bring an overly optimistic fanboy attitude -- I like to win.
The 2009 Bets
- Jered Weaver will have below a 120 ERA+ for 2010. Bet with Figgi4life. One week signature bet: Jered Weaver's a nice #3 starter versus Weaver's '09 wasn't a fluke.
- Jair Jurrjens will have an ERA above 3.25. Bet with @FriedBasballATL. Three tweets about how right the other person was.
- (One or two more in comments. Pull them up here.)
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Sky
I bet you that Mike Pelfrey will finish the year with a lower ERA than Matt Garza.
I'll consider that, although I'm with you that Pelfrey's better than his 2009 ERA.
Curious, why’d you pick Garza?
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Combination of random pick and
guy I think may drop a little in 2010.
by Pat Andriola on Feb 15, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, I'll take this. I think Garza's '09 is right at what he'll do in '10, but I wouldn't mind rooting for him.
What’s our bet?
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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 16, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry for the late reply
If I win, you need to tweet: “Mike Pelfrey is God 2.0”
If you win, I’ll tweet: “Sky Kalkman is God”
by Pat Andriola on Feb 18, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I honestly don't know who that is...
How about we bet that you can’t spell his name right at a random point in time sometime between June and August?
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This guy
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6612&position=P
Lotsa groundballs and swinging strikes. Great slider.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 16, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
I'll bet Jered Weaver
Finishes with an ERA+ of 120 or higher
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 15, 2010 3:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
*shrugs*
Doesn’t make a difference to me
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 15, 2010 3:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
What else is there to bet
Other than avatars and siggys?
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 15, 2010 3:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
if i lose
my siggy has to include “WTY’s ’09 was a fluke”
and if you lose, your siggy has to include “Weaver’s ‘09 wasn’t a fluke”
LBPhadDJaxFirst
I don't think Weaver's '09 ERA was all that flukey, but I'll accept this bet...
IF my winnings are that your signature reads “Jered Weaver’s a nice #3 starter”. One week on the sigs. If you agree, reply so, and I’ll add it to the list.
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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 16, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Sure
Let’s do it
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 16, 2010 10:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Done.
Quick thoughts: Weaver’s been really consistent in his SO, BB, and HR rates over the past three years, and therefore his FIP has hovered around 4.00. He’s seen some GBs turn into FBs, which hasn’t hurt as much as it would most pitchers, as Weaver can keep the ball in the park, hovering around 8% HR/FB over his career.
Projections and past performance agree that he’s a 4.00 (maybe slightly higher) FIP guy. Last year he hit the 120 EAR+ mark exactly, with a 3.75 ERA. I feel confident I’m getting the better odds here, and I’d put my chance of winning around 70%.
To be clear, I have nothing against Weaver and he’s definitely a valuable, above-average pitcher (and probably closer to a #2 guy than a #3 guy, even if that’s why my winning signature will show.)
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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 16, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
.
Weaver can keep the ball in the park, hovering around 8% HR/FB over his career.
This is a park effect, more than anything else.
by Graham MacAree on Feb 16, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Really? Anaheim?
If league average is about 11%, Anaheim pulls that down to like 5%?
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Well, no, it's not that drastic
But it’s something like a .85 HR/FB factor.
by Graham MacAree on Feb 18, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
See, I'm the guy looking to take the Scherzer side of the argument... ;)
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this bet is only good (assuming you find someone to take Jackson)
if inflected by IP — so it has to be WAR, since the main alleged “issue” with Scherzer is his durability
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 16, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Anyone want to bet on the AL West?
I don’t, but for the right “odds,” I’d take Oakland
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
Want to do an over/under on games separating teams
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 16, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno, how would it work?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 16, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
How high are you willing to set the bar and take the Over?
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I just want to pick them to win the division
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 16, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
which i guess is kinda nuts
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 16, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
Well I'd take that, obviously.
How could I give you odds without using money?
Maybe three weeks of an avatar for me versus one week for you?
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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 18, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe, yeah
it’s a big bet for me, since I absolutely love my avatar, and the source picture is gone from the web and my computer, apparently
what are we betting on, exactly?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 19, 2010 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
I would like to bet that Cole Hamels pitches below 150 innings
including playoffs
Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
whatever you'd like
How about a signature?
I <3 (batted) balls.
:)
Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
I try to avoid anything that can be construed as anti-gay.
How about “I was wrong and Sky was right: Cole Hamels is a beast” for you. And something the opposite for me?
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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 18, 2010 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Perfect
I can understand that confusion. For what its worth I am not anti-gay…
Does, "I was wrong and JD was right: Cole Hamels has a noodle arm" work for you?
Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Awesome. It's on.
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by Sky Kalkman on Feb 18, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Can I jump in here
Or is this only for Sky? Cuz I’d take that bet faster than a Tulo throw to first.
by controlled_slide on Feb 17, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Good one.
Me too.
LBPhadDJaxFirst
by Figgi4life on Feb 17, 2010 6:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
For the wager of one link to a hilarious youtube video.
You’re on!
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
Delmon Young > 1 WAR
That might not seem like an accomplishment, but trust me, it’s a pretty huge improvement.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 17, 2010 5:29 PM EST reply actions
Will the combination of
Jose Guillen, Scott Podsednick, Jason Kendall, Yuni Betancourt and Rick Ankiel generate + WAR for the year as a group.
That is over 1/2 on the starting lineup penciled in for the Royals.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
No takers
I will give you Getz, Bloomquist and Fields also.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 17, 2010 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
That's tempting.
Guillen will sap a lot, but Kendall/Pods/Yuni are around replacement and I think Ankiel could work. That’s a tough one.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
It's really hard for a catcher to go negative
I’m tempted to take the over on the likelihood of Guillen not playing much, if at all
Then I remember who is in charge…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 19, 2010 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
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