With some of the projection systems also coming out with projections of the standings now's probably a good time to attach some playoff probabilities to the projections. I'll start with PECOTA.
My methodology is fairly simple. I created a Monte Carlo simulation that modeled team wins as a normal random variable with a mean of the projected wins and a variable standard deviation (not variable within a set of simulation runs but across unique sets of runs).
I ran the simulation using a 9 win SD, an 8 win SD, and an 8 win SD with the caveat that total team wins had to fall within projected + or - 20.
The results using a 9 win standard deviation are after the jump and a spreadsheet containing all of the results is linked at the end.
| W | L | Div Win% | WC% | Playoff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 94 | 68 | 41% | 25% | 66% |
| Boston Red Sox | 92 | 70 | 31% | 25% | 56% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 90 | 72 | 23% | 23% | 46% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 80 | 82 | 4% | 7% | 11% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 72 | 90 | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| W | L | Div Win% | WC% | Playoff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 83 | 79 | 37% | 2% | 39% |
| Chicago White Sox | 80 | 82 | 24% | 2% | 26% |
| Detroit Tigers | 78 | 84 | 17% | 2% | 19% |
| Cleveland Indians | 76 | 86 | 12% | 1% | 13% |
| Kansas City Royals | 75 | 87 | 10% | 1% | 11% |
| W | L | Div Win% | WC% | Playoff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 87 | 75 | 47% | 3% | 50% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 80 | 82 | 20% | 3% | 23% |
| Oakland Athletics | 80 | 82 | 20% | 3% | 23% |
| Seattle Mariners | 77 | 85 | 13% | 2% | 15% |
A few quick bullet points
- The East is pretty good eh? 81% of the time the wild card came from there.
- Raise your hand if you would have pegged the Royals for having only a 4% less chance to make the playoffs than the Mariners. Yeah thought so. Granted is that just PEOCTA underrating the M's?
- The Central is pretty jumbled up, and those teams don't project to have the wild card to fall back on like the East
| W | L | Div Win% | WC% | Playoff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 88 | 74 | 45% | 9% | 54% |
| Atlanta Braves | 83 | 79 | 22% | 9% | 31% |
| Florida Marlins | 81 | 81 | 16% | 7% | 23% |
| New York Mets | 79 | 83 | 11% | 5% | 16% |
| Washington Nationals | 76 | 86 | 6% | 3% | 9% |
| W | L | Div Win% | WC% | Playoff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 84 | 78 | 33% | 6% | 39% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 82 | 80 | 25% | 5% | 30% |
| Chicago Cubs | 79 | 83 | 15% | 4% | 19% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 79 | 83 | 15% | 4% | 19% |
| Houston Astros | 76 | 86 | 9% | 3% | 12% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 70 | 92 | 3% | 1% | 4% |
| W | L | Div Win% | WC% | Playoff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 87 | 75 | 34% | 12% | 46% |
| Colorado Rockies | 86 | 76 | 29% | 12% | 41% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 83 | 79 | 19% | 10% | 29% |
| San Francisco Giants | 82 | 80 | 16% | 9% | 25% |
| San Diego Padres | 71 | 91 | 2% | 1% | 3% |
More bullet points
- The West should be fun division to watch
- The Phillies were the only team to break a 50% chance, and that's with a pessimistic Braves projection (clearly just my opinion)
Next up, I'll do the same with CHONE.
Complete results can be found here
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