Playoff Probabilities Simulation - PECOTA Edition

With some of the projection systems also coming out with projections of the standings now's probably a good time to attach some playoff probabilities to the projections.  I'll start with PECOTA.

My methodology is fairly simple.  I created a Monte Carlo simulation that modeled team wins as a normal random variable with a mean of the projected wins and a variable standard deviation (not variable within a set of simulation runs but across unique sets of runs).  

I ran the simulation using a 9 win SD, an 8 win SD, and an 8 win SD with the caveat that total team wins had to fall within projected + or - 20.

The results using a 9 win standard deviation are after the jump and a spreadsheet containing all of the results is linked at the end. 

AL East
W L Div Win% WC% Playoff %
New York Yankees 94 68 41% 25% 66%
Boston Red Sox 92 70 31% 25% 56%
Tampa Bay Rays 90 72 23% 23% 46%
Baltimore Orioles 80 82 4% 7% 11%
Toronto Blue Jays 72 90 1% 1% 2%

 

AL Central

W L Div Win% WC% Playoff %
Minnesota Twins 83 79 37% 2% 39%
Chicago White Sox 80 82 24% 2% 26%
Detroit Tigers 78 84 17% 2% 19%
Cleveland Indians 76 86 12% 1% 13%
Kansas City Royals 75 87 10% 1% 11%

 

AL West
W L Div Win% WC% Playoff %
Texas Rangers 87 75 47% 3% 50%
Los Angeles Angels 80 82 20% 3% 23%
Oakland Athletics 80 82 20% 3% 23%
Seattle Mariners 77 85 13% 2% 15%

 

A few quick bullet points

  • The East is pretty good eh?  81% of the time the wild card came from there.
  • Raise your hand if you would have pegged the Royals for having only a 4% less chance to make the playoffs than the Mariners.  Yeah thought so.  Granted is that just PEOCTA underrating the M's? 
  • The Central is pretty jumbled up, and those teams don't project to have the wild card to fall back on like the East

 

NL East

W L Div Win% WC% Playoff %
Philadelphia Phillies 88 74 45% 9% 54%
Atlanta Braves 83 79 22% 9% 31%
Florida Marlins 81 81 16% 7% 23%
New York Mets 79 83 11% 5% 16%
Washington Nationals 76 86 6% 3% 9%

 

NL Central
W L Div Win% WC% Playoff %
St. Louis Cardinals 84 78 33% 6% 39%
Cincinnati Reds 82 80 25% 5% 30%
Chicago Cubs 79 83 15% 4% 19%
Milwaukee Brewers 79 83 15% 4% 19%
Houston Astros 76 86 9% 3% 12%
Pittsburgh Pirates 70 92 3% 1% 4%

 

NL West
W L Div Win% WC% Playoff %
Arizona Diamondbacks 87 75 34% 12% 46%
Colorado Rockies 86 76 29% 12% 41%
Los Angeles Dodgers 83 79 19% 10% 29%
San Francisco Giants 82 80 16% 9% 25%
San Diego Padres 71 91 2% 1% 3%

 

More bullet points

 

  • The West should be fun division to watch
  • The Phillies were the only team to break a 50% chance, and that's with a pessimistic Braves projection (clearly just my opinion)

 

Next up, I'll do the same with CHONE.

Complete results can be found here

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