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Rotations by CHONE

After passing by Buster Olney's blog post from yesterday about who he considered to be the five best rotations in the game, it got me thinking about what projection systems had to say.

Here was Olney's list: 1. Red Sox 2. Yankees 3. White Sox 4. Angels 5. Cardinals 5A. Phillies

He also gave honorable mentions to the Giants, Diamondbacks, Braves and Rays.

The major trend seems rather simple: he considers the top tier rotations in the AL to be better than those in the NL.

For the sake of making things easier, I decided to just look at the top six starters for each team using Sean Smith's CHONE projections. Specifically, I decided to look at which rotations were projected to offer the most value above replacement.

Before getting into it, it's worth noting that some pitchers were projected by CHONE as relief pitchers for next season in spite of the fact that they're competing for rotation spots. Specifically, it led to the omissions of Joba Chamberlain, Brandon Morrow, and Kevin Hart. Additionally, Jeff Francis' projection was not available either, so instead I used the starter that CHONE projected to be in his place, left-handed pitcher Franklin Morales. Francis is expected to be Colorado's fifth starter next season, he missed the 2009 season after having shoulder surgery.

Here are the top 5 rotations for 2010 according to CHONE WAR projections: 1. Yankees 2. Red Sox 3. Phillies 4. White Sox 5. Mariners

Some details, going division by division, after the jump.

Star-divide

The Yankees were head and shoulders above everyone, as all six of their starters are projected at 2 WAR or above, and the system projects 3+ WAR seasons for Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Vazquez, led by CC's impressive 5.6 WAR projection. At 21.5 WAR as a unit, they're projected to be over 3.5 wins more valuable than the second-place Red Sox. The Rays settled in at No. 12, but only Shields and Garza projected to be worth more than 1.9 WAR. Toronto and Baltimore are in the bottom ten, but the upside of guys like Matusz and Romero is worth noting.

When it comes to starting pitching, the White Sox and Royals are the class of the division according to CHONE. CHONE projects 3.5+ WAR seasons for all four of Chicago's top four starters, led by Jake Peavy's 3.8 mark. The Royals have the advantage of Zack Greinke's 6.0 WAR projection, the highest among pitchers, and took that mark along with optimistic projections for Gil Meche and Brian Bannister all the way to the sixth-best rotation in the projections. The Twins' rotation is likely to out perform its projection, which has them in the middle of the pack, if Pavano stays healthy and Liriano returns to form on some level. Detroit's rotation (No. 19) is held down by a lack of depth, while Cleveland's rotation is projected to have some unsurprising issues.

The AL West is projected to have some very solid starting pitching, with the A's holding the lowest ranking at No. 18, and the other three teams are all in the top 11. The Angels have impressive depth, while the Mariners are projected to take advantage of arguably the best 1-2 punch in the game in Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. The Rangers are one of the more interesting cases, as their projected ace didn't even pitch in the U.S. last season. Colby Lewis, who signed to a two-year deal after a monster stint in Japan, is projected to post a 3.7 WAR in Texas, one of four Texas starters with a WAR over 2.2 in the projections.

As for the NL East, CHONE projects the Mets, Nationals and Marlins to have some trouble with their rotations, projecting all of them in the bottom five in the rankings. The Phillies are near the top and the Braves in the middle of the pack at No. 14, but Atlanta could easily out pitch their projection, and they're docked for having such a mediocre sixth starter in Jo-Jo Reyes.

CHONE is least impressed with the NL Central, projecting the Cubs to be the best at No. 13 thanks to good depth, with the Brewers ranking the worst at No. 27. The Brewers' mark was dragged down a good deal by the presence of Jeff Suppan (0.1 WAR projection), while Cardinals' and Astros' marks were dragged down by a lack of depth beyond their best two starters.

Like their American League counterpart, the NL West is also loaded with quality pitching. All four teams with the exception of the Padres rank between No. 7 and No. 15, and the Diamondbacks, Giants and Rockies are all among the top 10. One number worth noting is the impressive 2.5 WAR mark that CHONE projects for Billy Buckner, and a healthy Brandon Webb could make that rotation one of the best in the game.

Looking over the list though, the trend in Olney's rankings was apparent in my CHONE-based ones as well: 5 of the top 6 rotations were from the AL, and the five worst projected rotations all reside in the NL. That should certainly help to explain the divide between the two leagues.

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It's been brought up ad nauseum over at Purple Row

But I thought I’d bring it up here: the Rockies had the best staff in baseball last year. Yeah. The Rockies.

Now granted they’re losing a 3.8 WAR pitcher and replacing him with a guy whose ceiling is about that high, but is coming back from injury. But Hammel and De La Rosa are the best back-of-the-rotation guys you’ve never heard of. After years of being the whipping boys of baseball, the Rockies can pitch.

by controlled_slide on Feb 10, 2010 2:21 PM EST reply actions  

I've been a big Rockies fan for a while now

I love what O’Dowd and company has done there. The pitching staff could be insane soon with Friedrich, Matzek, Chacin, Brothers and Rogers on the way, and as you noted, Jorge De La Rosa has quietly emerged as one of the better starters in the NL.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 10, 2010 2:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Where does CHONE have the Rockies?

7, 8, 9, or 10?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 10, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I have them at No. 10, but it's worth noting that CHONE didn't project Jeff Francis for whatever reason

CHONE likes Jimenez, Cook and De La Rosa for at least 2.8 WAR each, but Hammel comes in at 2.0 WAR. I had to replace Francis with Franklin Morales, who’s probably more likely to end up as a power lefty out of the bullpen, but CHONE gives him a 1.4 WAR projection, while sixth starter Greg Smith is projected at 1.1 WAR.

The Giants’ 9th place ranking is essentially all because of Lincecum/Cain, they account for 9.7 WAR.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 11, 2010 9:28 AM EST up reply actions  

I'll add Francis soon

If a guy didn’t pitch last year my system assumes he retired. I have to add them in. The usual process is somebody reminds me that he doesn’t have a projection, or he’s in the news for signing a contract.

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Feb 11, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yaaaaa boooyeee. Way to reprezent

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 10, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I highly doubt they repeat that

But their staff looks like a top 10 rotation at least.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Feb 11, 2010 3:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I am not surprised Oakland's rotation is projected as the worst in the AL West

Due to Sheets and Duchscherer not pitching at all last season, though I think they’re better than this. Duke, Anderson and Sheets all have “ace” potential (health willing) and Gio Gonzalez and Braden are all right.

by Opus Youngblood on Feb 10, 2010 3:43 PM EST reply actions  

I love stuff like this.

Any chance of a nice big summary table, with total WAR for each team’s starters, plus the six names contributing. (And, for bonus points, the individual WAR numbers for each pitcher, IP, and ERA/FIP/whatever?)

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 10, 2010 4:51 PM EST reply actions  

....

actually yes, just give me a day or two to put it together.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 11, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

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