Jayson Werth to the Nats for $126m over 7
Just 15 minutes earlier I scoffed at the possibility of Werth in a Nats jersey--I guess 126/7 is how you make it happen.
Thoughts? Remember that the "(not) Werth it" joke has already been made about 100 times now...
over 1 year ago
J-Doug
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I'll get the ball rolling...
I sense that the Nats need to pay players a premium to get them to play here. However, Mike Rizzo seems to have exceeded that premium significantly.
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Looks like it could work out if the Nats' young players all gel together
This could be a 90 win team in 2013. But this could also turn into an albatross very easily.
As a fan of the team...
I’ll take a shot at the playoffs over the next 4-5 if it means we’re stuck with an aging outfielder and no DH in years 6 and 7. Here’s hoping that’s the real trade-off.
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Totally agree viva
Assuming that this does not impact their spending on the foundation of their organization (Draft/IFA), then I won’t bash them for this move. Would I have done it myself? Not yet. But this line-up should be nasty in 2012-2013.
C: Norris
1B:
2B: Desmond
3B: Zimmerman
SS: Espinosa
LF: Werth
CF
RF: Harper
With Strasburg, Zimermann, Storen as a good foundation.
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Nats almost did this with Teixeira two off-seasons ago.
"Individual players don't win championships, teams do."
Rather have Tex than Werth.
Ugh.
Long time lurker, new time poster.
Word was Bowden offered $190 million...
Would that really have been a better deal? I don’t know—it’s an honest question.
But, getting at bad teams needing to pay a premium, that’s $10m above what he took from the Yanks. As I tweeted a few minutes ago, only way you don’t believe that bad teams need to pay a premium for free agents is if you don’t believe they care about winning at all. Again, that’s a debatable point as well.
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Doesn't Werth signing with the Nats put one point in the column of "athletes don't care to win?"
I mean, the Nats have some fine young talent on the way, but that’s still 2-3 years off and do you think Werth made the decision based on what the team could look like in 2-3 years? I doubt it. Players are just looking to get paid and to play as much as possible.
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No, because he took a bigger contract than expected from a bad team
The real test is if athletes take a lesser offer to play for a better team or if they would take an offer from a poorer team when a better team offered a more lucrative one. If the difficult-to-confirm case of Tex is to be believed, then there is at least some degree to which this is true.
Athletes—like almost everyone—care the most about material compensation. I find it hard to believe that they don’t care about winning at all, if only because winning creates more opportunities to make money.
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I'm not saying that they don't care about winning entirely.
Just that it’s kind of low on the totem pole. Winning’s usually the tie-breaker if all other things are even.
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You're right, it's low on the totem pole
But even if this is so, there’s a cost that comes with it. The question isn’t whether or not it matters, the question is how much.
I don’t like to think in terms of binaries.
Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.
Werth is getting such a big contract, though.
How many teams would have offered him 7 years, $126MM? I don’t know if anyone other than the Nationals would have done that. Yes, he took a lot of money to play for a (currently) bad team, but this is much more money than other teams would have offered him. It seems like too unusual of a case to make a judgment off of.
I consider Carlos Lee / Alfonso Soriano to be the position player Zito equivalents
This will be bad, but not on that level.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Dec 5, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
I’ll try to stay optimistic and believe that some success in 2012-2014 will make the deal worthwhile, but I’m not sure that this way the best course of action for Washington.
Getting Crawford would obviously be a better get… does Crawford really want that much more than 7/126?
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by Satchel Price on Dec 5, 2010 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
And I imagine there will be some teams who will pay it.
One of those New York teams comes to mind…
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Would Zito's contract have been "Zito bad" if Zito didn't tail off so dramatically?
And if not, do you expect Werth to do the same?
Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.
Even before he tailed off,
Zito’s contract was “Zito Bad.”
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There will be some steeper tail off then people expect.
Tango just ran the numbers and here is his quote:
All is not well however, as players entering their age 34 through 39 seasons following an observed 5.0 (implying 4.7 true talent in those years, and aging of 4.2) averaged only 3.4 wins in their first season. This therefore does points to not aggressive aging in the first year. And it gets worse, because for 5 years we get this:
3.5 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.7
That’s a drop of around 0.7 wins per year. So, not only did I not apply a strong enough aging for the first year, but then each subsequent year should have shown a stronger aging.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 5, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So I've thought about it for a few minutes...
The howard deal is, amazingly, still worse.
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We should do something with this, I think.
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