A Timeline of the Best Players Ever: Now with Pitchers
Last week, I posted a visual timeline of the best position players in the history of the game. Wins Above MVP Level (WAM) is the metric I used. I must say, I was quite proud of that graph. It was pretty… there were no blatant surprises in the data… the timeline couldn't have covered the history of Major League Baseball any better. It was fun.
Of course, as anticipated, in the comments the brilliant and surprisingly attractive readership asked to see what the pitchers would look like. I said "Ah ha! That comes next week!" So, before I turn this post into 2,000 words (meaning a picture, plus 1,000 actual words... get it?), let's show the pretty picture.
The original graph featured 20 players. Seven pitchers had more career WAM than the 20th-ranked position player. Instead of producing a new graph with 27 players on it, I added the next three players in WAM to make a nice round 30 (two hitters—Eddie Mathews and Wade Boggs—and an eighth pitcher). Here's the new graph with everyone shown together:
Click to make it bigger or read on for an explanation of the troubles I had with pitchers.
Perhaps you're saying "That's swell, but I wish I could see what the graph would look like with just the pitchers." I've got you covered:A few notes of… note:
- WAM for pitchers simply isn't as reliable as it is for hitters. For example, offensive roles have largely stayed the same over the course of history. There are nine hitters. They bat in order. With the exception of the shift from 154 to 162 games, playing time has more or less been consistent.
- Then there are pitchers. In 1884, single-season WAR (and therefore WAM) record-holder Charlie Radbourn pitched 678.2 innings. The top 104 seasons on the single-season innings pitched list occurred in the 1800s. Modern pitchers simply cannot be compared to their 1800s counterparts. For that reason, I constrained this graph to 1901-present.
- Then there's the Wilbur Wood problem. Was Wilbur Wood one of the greatest pitchers of the 20th century? WAM thinks so. Wood's career WAR is 45.0, but from 1971 to 1975 he produced 36.0 of that (and all of his 9.4 WAM). He did this not just through excellent pitching (he had a 120 ERA+ over that stretch) but by throwing more innings than everyone else. In a way, he got on this list for the very same reason I slashed all pre-1901 pitchers from qualifying (though not the extent). The Wilbur Wood problem is also the reason I removed the "A Timeline of the Best Players Ever" title from the pitcher graph. I just didn't feel it was true (or as true as it was in the position player graph).
- Lastly, three pitchers here actually started their careers before 1901, so they're not getting full credit for their careers. I redid the chart to give these guys credit for all their work:
There's the Cy Young they named an award after!
The astute reader will notice that Kid Nichols appears in the very first graph, but not the others. That is because the vast majority of his value came in the 19th century. However, he's a bit "more modern" than guys like Radbourne. In this old post about career Pitching WAM leaders, I counted just pitchers who had at least one 6+ WAR season after 1900. So, I used the same rules here.
So, let's talk about the pitching graph a little:
- It's certainly not as neat as the hitters. There's a half-dozen big guns before 1920. Then there were seven active between the mid-1960s and mid-1970s—Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Wilber Wood, Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, and Tom Seaver. Not many are going to argue with that group of pitchers, besides Wood. I'm sure Niekro has his detractors, but gosh Rally's WAR loves him.
- Young, Johnson, and Clemens certainly stand out. So does Koufax, which is one nice thing about using WAM over raw WAR. I'm looking for that dominance here and Koufax had it. Gibson, too.
- I'll be honest—I expected Pedro to stand out a bit more. I wonder how he'd look if this graph was just 1970 to present.
- For a good hunk of their careers, Lefty Grove and Bob Feller had no peers (except for their short overlap).
I don't know about you, but I really like these timelines. They are pretty flexible, too… You could use WAR or WAM. You could do best hitters, best pitchers, a certain position, a certain franchise... really anything. I find it handy for Hall of Fame discussions, where you can see if a certain player was better than everyone else at the time he played. In this graph showing catchers, I've got a feeling that five of the catchers I think are deserving of Hall of Fame consideration are hurt because their careers all overlapped. Wally Schang, on the other hand, looks like he was the best active catcher for a short time and rarely any worse than second.
So, what would you like to see? We've got the easy one—best players ever!—out of the way. I'm curious to see what else we can come up with.
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Beeeautiful.
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Hmmm
It is wonderful, but… Unless I’m misunderstanding the criteria (and that’s a possibility!), didn’t you forget Wally Johnson from the first graph? :(
Sorry, I am a huge fan of “The Big Train”. So it stuck out at me.
I love it overall though
Woohoo!
And I’m so glad you see it as horrendous. Walter was really something else. :)
“J is for Johnson
The Big Train in his prime
Was so fast he could throw
Three strikes at a time.”
He's #1 all time in post-1901 Wins Above MVP (for pitchers)
Big Train is Bad Ass.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
Something I may be imagining:
but does it look like someone is missing (in the pitchers-only graphics) from 1980-1995? Seems like every other era has at least one representative as a bridge between other eras, but this chart shows that the 80-95 era are leftovers from the 70s, then BLAMMO, Clemens.
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That lull has a lot to do with the Jack Morris "most wins in the 1980s" argument
A lot of good pitchers during that time, but none that could crack the all-time Top 20… guys like Stieb, Hershiser, Gooden, Morris…
I covered this era in a bit more detail here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/8/27/1653657/jack-morris-dave-stieb-and-most
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
Ryan?
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Ryan was 7th in WAM in the 1980s.
From 1901 to present he’s tied for 36th all time (with Frank Tanana). He a good pitcher for a long time, but didn’t surpass 6 WAR too often.
And trust me, I would want nothing more than to create a graphic that makes Ryan look good.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
A nice follow-up would be
“Hall of Fame Pitchers that were never quite above MVP.” My previous Moyer graphic comes to mind.
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Oh, and Greg Maddux couldn't even make the Top 20 count...
Which is another part of the WIlbur Wood problem. He knocked Maddux from the Top 20.
I just don’t think WAM’s that good of a metric for pitchers.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
I think it's really best for showing dominance,
rather than extended effectiveness. Still sweet, though.
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MVP dominant?
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This is something I've wrestled with a lot, regarding WAM.
Pitchers simply don’t accumulate WAR and WAM like hitters do. It’s visible in the career leader lists. But the metric, WAM, is characterizing which pitchers played above MVP level… which conceivably both the hitters and pitchers should be held to the same standard since it is the same award. So, inherently pitchers are going to be at a disadvantage.
So, should pitchers even be assessed with WAM? Should they have a different baseline, making it something like Wins Above Cy Young?
And why the heck is Greg Maddux not there? He was so freakin’ good. He is tied for 8th all time in pitcher WAR, but on the WAM list he drops down.
It’s something tough that I’ve been thinking about for a while now.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
This would probably be a pain in the ass...
But what if you plotted each player’s seasonal WAR numbers(or WAMVP) in little column charts instead of the rectangles (but in the same spaces). Sort of like sparklines, but in various upward directions instead of up/down lines? Would show career arcs well, plus give more insight into transitional periods.
I'm trying to think if something like this would be better for WAR or WAM
Even the top players on this list don’t register WAM every season… just when they pass 6.0 WAR. So, perhaps that’d actually be cleaner than a straight up WAR sparkline. I think it’s either that or using area for total WAM. Don’t think both would work.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
Typographical error
Hey, Adam. Just FYI, Mathewson is spelled with only one ‘t’ in Christy’s case. And I should know—it’s a misspelling I’m all too familiar with.
Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.
Are you a one-T or two-Ts guy?
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The never-ending correction that is a baseball infographic.
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Yes it must be frustrating.
I’m a one-T guy. I’ve actually never met personally another Mathewson (one-T) outside of my family. One time when I was working at the Apple Store I verified someone’s credit card using their drivers license, and it was another Mathewson (one-T), but it turns out he was really a Matthewson and Virginia had simply printed his license wrong.
Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.
how disappointing!
But at least you can be in my club of “not very common last names.”
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I'm shocked Pedro's is so small
I’d say he’s the best starter ever, per inning, and the stretch from 1997-2003 is the most dominant stretch by a pitcher.
I wonder how often he's heard that.
(sorry)
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