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What's the Point of "Replacement Player?"


Colin Wyers (BP) has a completely awesome piece today in which he reconstructs why we use Replacement Level Player, why it's better than just Average Player, redefining (and reconsidering) how Replacement Level is determined, and how BP is using that as a baseline from which to jump into WARL.*

But there's an instructive moment which Wyers really nails:

Or take the example of a player who has produced 20 runs below average. That is, again, very different if it occurs in 150 PA or 650 PA—roughly the difference between a .150 TAv and a .230 TAv.

And while above we extolled the virtues of the average player with more playing time, nobody would find a "true" .150 TAv hitter (that is to say, one who will hit .150 TAv regardless of playing time, not a hitter who hits .150 TAv over a cold streak) more valuable the more he plays—there’s an opportunity cost to deploying that hitter, in that he’s taking at-bats from a player who can do more to help his team. He’s actually hurting his team more the more he plays.

And this is why we find replacement level useful—we are trying to find the point at which a player starts to contribute to his team by playing more, as opposed to detracting from his team. And this is something that is difficult to measure, as the critics of replacement level say—but the difficulty doesn’t make it any less important for us to know.

What do you think? Is this how you would best explain it? When I first learned of VORP, I heard it described as "that value over the average player that could be called up to replace him." That holds true, but Wyer's description takes it a set further by identifying why it's important in the first place.

 

*Wins Above Replacement Level, BP's intended catch-all value stat. 

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Best of Sabermetrics: January 2010

Feb 2010 by JinAZ - 13 comments

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I love the way Colin's going about it statistically

But when he gets to comparing opening day rosters to season-long rosters, I start to feel a bit uneasy. Maybe I just have a fetish for symmetry, but I think models work best when their assumptions are entirely theoretical or entirely evidential, rather than a mix of the two.

It could be the case that there is no sound way of figuring out the intersection between the distributions for PAs per TAv and players per TAv, and I can’t tell because I’m not as smart as Colin (and/or I haven’t looked deeply enough yet).

Also, there’s always the issue with defense, pitching and positional replacement value. Is Colin going to have a better way of measuring 1B and C fielding better than the existing metrics? How can we tell if Colin’s (or anybody’s) defensive metric is any good (there are ways of telling, this is mainly a rhetorical question)? Is he going to take fWAR’s or bWAR’s approach to pitching, or does he have something new? In terms of positions, is he going to do the same calculations for different positions? Because having a power-hitting second baseman is not necessarily the same as having a power-hitting first baseman.

I guess he’ll be explaining this in future posts. I like the direction he’s going, in general though—WARP needed a makeover.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Nov 3, 2010 3:38 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

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