## Can Someone Explain the Bill James Projection of Scott Baker?

I am doing some fantasy previews and got to Scott Baker and looked at his stats at Fangraphs which currently includes Bill James's projections.   Bill's projections have always been optimistic compared to other  projection systems, but Scott's was low and I just can't follow it.  Take a look:

 Season Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP 2005 Twins 3 3 0 10 9 53.2 5.37 2.35 0.84 0.265 3.35 3.82 2006 Twins 5 8 0 16 16 83.1 6.7 1.73 1.84 0.359 6.37 4.99 2007 Twins 9 9 0 24 23 143.2 6.39 1.82 0.94 0.327 4.26 3.89 2008 Twins 11 4 0 28 28 172.1 7.36 2.19 1.04 0.290 3.45 3.79 2009 Twins 15 9 0 33 33 200 7.29 2.16 1.26 0.287 4.37 4.08 2010 Twins 12 9 0 29 29 170.1 7.82 2.27 1.22 0.329 4.49 3.96 2011 Bill James 9 8 0 26 26 152 7.16 2.19 1.18 0.311 4.03 4.01

Problem 1:  Why does he have him starting 29 games in 2011, at least 2 less than any of the past 3 years.  This tough does match with the drop in IP of 18 from 2010 to 2011.   Maybe he is looking at other Twin pitchers getting some starts.  Definitely no kind of standard weighting used in other systems is being used here.

Problem 2.  The K/9 drop is quite rough.  It is lower than any of the previous 3 seasons.  He must be factor in a pretty heavy aging factor.

Problem 3.  ERA of 4.03.  Some his ERA is going to be lower than anytime in the past 2 years, but his K/9 is going down.  Also with a 4.03 ERA, you would think the Twins will play him more.

I just can't make any sense of this at all.  He is is supposed to allow a half a run less than 2010, by having his K/9 drop by 0.76.  With his ERA dropping, the Twins also decide to play him less.

I just don't get it.

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