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A Primer on Primers: Beginning the Discussion on Sabermetric Education

Ever since Justin reached out to me about joining Beyond the Box Score, I've been struggling with a dilemma: how do you write "Intro. to Sabermetrics" pieces on a site where everyone is smarter than you? As it was pointed out in the comments of my introduction piece, there have already been countless primers written in the past - including ones written by gods of the saber-world like Graham McAree - so what would make this series unique? Explaining wOBA step-by-step is all well and good in most venues, but to this crowd, doing so would be akin to a college student stumbling into a class of PhD students and lecturing them on how a t-test works.

But instead of being another saber-primer series, my weekly columns will focus on the larger, more pressing issue: how we, as saberists, can best inform and educate non-saberists. Think about all the articles you read on a daily basis within the saber-sphere. How many of them are written for people new to sabermetrics? How many take the time to explain what the acronyms mean, or to explain the principles and research that they're referencing? Some writers do, but from what I see, most articles are written by people in the know for people in know.

Star-divide

Let me be clear: I'm not advocating that we dumb down articles and research to the lowest common denominator. Every site has a niche and there are enough writers out there that we can have a bit of everything: hardcore articles that cater to sabermetric researchers, middle-of-the-road articles that cater to the saber-inclined, and simple articles that cater to the newbies. As it stands now, though, I see the sabermetric community sitting in an awkward, in-between position: wanting to become more mainstream and accepted, yet not willing to reach out to the uneducated. We have the research pieces, we have the middle-of-the-road article - but where are the introductory pieces? And no, I'm not counting "Saber 101" posts.

So that's what I see this column as: a forum where we can discuss different ideas about how we, as a community, can reach out to newer readers. Some of the articles may come off similar to a saber-primer series (e.g. what are the best ways to teach about WAR?), but I hope to also discuss many of the roadblocks that make it tough to educate and ways around them. I want this to be a discussion, with everyone bringing their issues and insights to the table so we can best understand how we can become a more open community.

With that said, here's my first question for everyone. Say you're in an elevator with someone and they notice the [insert favorite MLB team here] hat you have on. You get into a conversation about baseball and somehow, it comes out that you're a fan of sabermetrics. The person immediately looks at you a little shifty and says something along the lines of, "Sabermetrics? You mean that movement with all the funny stats and numbers? Why should I trust that stuff?"

Since you're on an elevator, your answer has to be short and brief - ideally one or two sentences, one minute long max. How do you reach this man in so short a time, make him stop and challenge his preconceived thoughts on sabermetrics? How do you sum up everything that sabermetrics is in one or two sentences? What's your answer?

Steve is the founder of the Sabermetrics Library and has a degree in child development / education. He also writes over at DRaysBay.com.

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It's a hypothetical....shh.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 11, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not anywhere near as "sabermetrically" inclined as some, but I'll bite.

The conversation normally is a disagreement about something specific….

“Player A sucks because he _____s.”

I would normally follow that up with, “Well if you drill down into the numbers, here is why he doesn’t actually suck…”

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Nov 11, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, that's what I imagine the most typical response is (although that wasn't the original prompt).

Depending on the person, it works if you have the time to explain yourself.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 11, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that's a good one

James Shields was a hot button issue. Most people are ready to give up on him and say oh he sucks 5 ERA. But I always say its about going past that. Ask how can a guy who struck out a lot of guys, doesn’t walk a ton really suck this bad? We know home runs are the issue, but what else are we missing?

www.draysbay.com, www.bloombergsports.mlblogs.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Nov 11, 2010 2:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah, exactly. Instead of mentioning FIP and xFIP, I'd prefer to tackle it the way you're talking about.

Stick with the statistics they know, since you can still make the same points and you’re much more likely to have they take you seriously.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 11, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I say it all the time!

Wife says, “did you really just describe your marketing strategy using a Star Wars reference?”

“Actually, that was Star Trek. And it was really about how the first season — you know, where the unifor..”

“Stop it.”

“I could get into sabermetrics if you think that would be easier?”

“…”

The baseball season doesn't have to end! Create your own players, coach your own teams, and join your friends in THE premier baseball MMO. Two Out Rally opens October 25th!
Two Out Rally, BASEBALL MMORPG | Facebook | @2OutRally

by Justin Bopp on Nov 11, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I have

Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net

by Mish on Nov 11, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

what's a "sex life"

Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net

by Mish on Nov 11, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

*ahem*

Yes, okay, uh… well, have a seat. Uh… um… when a man… needs to prove to a woman that he’s actua- when a man loves a woman, and he actually wants to make love, uh, to her, something very, very special happens. And with deep, deep concentration and, and great focus, he’s often able to achieve an erec…

Fireworks: Bang?

by colintj on Nov 11, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you just coined my favorite new phrase

saberection

The baseball season doesn't have to end! Create your own players, coach your own teams, and join your friends in THE premier baseball MMO. Two Out Rally opens October 25th!
Two Out Rally, BASEBALL MMORPG | Facebook | @2OutRally

by Justin Bopp on Nov 11, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

And when 9 men have sex with a woman and then pee on her, is that love?

/poor paraphrasing of a South Park quote

Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net

by Mish on Nov 11, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Ladies and Gentlemen,

our audience.

The baseball season doesn't have to end! Create your own players, coach your own teams, and join your friends in THE premier baseball MMO. Two Out Rally opens October 25th!
Two Out Rally, BASEBALL MMORPG | Facebook | @2OutRally

by Justin Bopp on Nov 11, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Just so everyone knows, I'll answer this question myself next week (or earlier, depending).

I’ve got an answer, but I’m interested to see what everyone else has to say first.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 11, 2010 1:58 PM EST reply actions  

"Because I'm smarter than you"

Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net

by Mish on Nov 11, 2010 2:17 PM EST reply actions  

Here's how not to do it...

Me: “Well, when CJ Wilson has Elvis Andrus behind him he has an ERA of like 3.5. If Derek Jeter were behind him then his ERA would be higher because the groundballs he allows would become singles more often and since CJ can’t control what his defense is, his ERA isn’t a great indicator of his ability.”

Them: “Why would it go up? Jeter is a Gold Glove shortstop, shouldn’t it go down?”

by Trickman on Nov 11, 2010 2:21 PM EST reply actions  

I think one thing that would be useful (for myself at least) would be benchmarks of what is acceptable for different metrics. Obviously the higher the OPS the better, but what is an acceptable level?

There are a ton of factors here (position, role, etc) so if it is too big of a task, no worries but I think it would be a nice reference.

by JoshuaR on Nov 11, 2010 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

Yes, this key

Every baseball fan has in his mind that a “good” batter bats .300 or better, whether or not this is correct. But an individual’s going to have a problem accepting any new stat unless he/she knows what a good benchmark is.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Nov 11, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

True.

If I cite Shin Shoo Choo’s War of 5.6 last season, in a vaccum, that means nothing. In context by saying that really good is 7-8 WAR and what average is, it makes a little more sense.

by JoshuaR on Nov 11, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Definitely. I've tried to incorporate this concept into the Saber Library.

Is this sort of thing what you’re talking about?

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 11, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, something like that which shows what the best hitters are, what average is and what some of the worst players are.

by JoshuaR on Nov 11, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

My answer

“Because it’s objective, verifiable, and produces better metrics that give players their due and nothing more.”

This isn’t always the case, but it’s the ideal type.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Nov 11, 2010 2:33 PM EST reply actions  

It's the equivalent of...

Aristotle saying “heavier objects fall faster” and everyone accepting that at face value for nearly 2,000 years, and then Galileo coming along and actually testing it out, and debunking it.

Of course, you probably lose people at “Aristotle”.

Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net

by Mish on Nov 11, 2010 2:46 PM EST reply actions  

redeemed from that post above.

close call, though.

The baseball season doesn't have to end! Create your own players, coach your own teams, and join your friends in THE premier baseball MMO. Two Out Rally opens October 25th!
Two Out Rally, BASEBALL MMORPG | Facebook | @2OutRally

by Justin Bopp on Nov 11, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha

Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net

by Mish on Nov 12, 2010 8:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Search for the truth

Who is the better batter?
Who is the better team?
Should you walk someone here?
Who got the better end of the trade?
Was player X over paid?

When you go to the ballpark, sit down and have an discussion/argument, these are the questions that are trying to be answered.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 11, 2010 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

I think the entry point into sabermetrics is

a definition of replacement. If you can get your audience (dude at the office) to get that part, some of the higher level stuff gets a whole lot easier.

The baseball season doesn't have to end! Create your own players, coach your own teams, and join your friends in THE premier baseball MMO. Two Out Rally opens October 25th!
Two Out Rally, BASEBALL MMORPG | Facebook | @2OutRally

by Justin Bopp on Nov 11, 2010 7:15 PM EST reply actions  

I left evangelism when I left christianity

I have no energy or interest in trying to get other people to think what I think. The stuff is free online, and easily accessible. Some people will seek it out, others will accept what they’re told to think. I wish people would think for themselves more, but I’ve tried enough to know that it’s difficult to “convince” someone to think about something in a different way than they already do because often people are closed to something they didn’t realize themselves. I don’t know why sabermetrics needs to be mainstream. Some people really enjoy that approach to baseball. Many teams use them now. But sports is almost the mythology of our culture, and that does alot of good for some people. If they don’t want to change it, it’s on them.

by philadelphiacub on Nov 11, 2010 11:40 PM EST reply actions  

I agree with you...to an extent.

I hate people that force their opinions and beliefs on others – I never want to do that and I don’t think this is implying that. If someone doesn’t want to learn about sabermetrics, fine…that’s their choice. But that doesn’t mean we can’t be better educators for the people that do want to understand, and learn better ways to convey our message.

Also, there’s a distinction to be made between beliefs and facts. People can believe whatever they want, but when they start trying turning their opinions into facts in an argument….that’s an issue. You can believe that gravity doesn’t exist, but that doesn’t change the fact that you’d be wrong. If people don’t want to accept sabermetrics, that’s fine – I’d just ask that they not aggressively believe that their opinion is the only correct one (which has a tendency to happen).

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 12, 2010 12:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think the actual stats are as important to convey...

as the concepts behind them. If you get across that a guy with a BA/OBP of .260/.390 is better than a .310/355 and explain it in a simple way, that’s progress. Explain that a ball in play generally goes for an out roughly 70% of the time. Hell, as stupid as it sounds now, just the concept of outs being currency and you should spend the wisely is something the average fan doesn’t think about. The stats are heuristics for us as we understand the concepts behind them and provide shortcuts when we’re engaging in discourse. Understanding DIPS theory is a good step, even if xFIP > ERA argument can’t get through.

Rays/Cubs fan - AnotherCubsBlog.net

by Mish on Nov 12, 2010 8:36 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

This is a huge point.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 12, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

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