Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #3 - Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 29, 2010 6:03 PM EDT

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Rangers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 8:55 AM PST)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
SF	TEX	J.Sanchez vs C.Lewis	TEX	60.00%	56.15%	67%

Notes: There is just over a 3% separation between Vegas and my Simulator for Saturday's Game #3. The general public is probably feeling pretty confident that the Rangers will bounce back at home and take the next game. I think AccuScore has been taken over by a group of Chinese hackers. Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. J.Sanchez total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Rangers total bases minus Giants total bases: 1.5
4. C.Lewis total batters faced: 26.5
5. Giants bullpen total pitches: 22.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 TEX 3-2	51 SF 5-0	101 SF 10-6
2 TEX 4-3	52 SF 8-3	102 TEX 11-3
3 TEX 2-1	53 TEX 8-3	103 SF 9-0
4 TEX 5-4	54 TEX 8-7	104 TEX 11-1
5 SF 3-2	55 SF 7-1	105 SF 11-3
6 SF 4-3	56 SF 8-2	106 TEX 10-6
7 TEX 4-2	57 TEX 6-0	107 SF 11-4
8 TEX 3-1	58 SF 8-4	108 TEX 10-0
9 SF 2-1	59 SF 8-5	109 SF 11-5
10 SF 4-2	60 TEX 8-2	110 SF 11-2
11 SF 5-4	61 TEX 8-4	111 TEX 10-9
12 TEX 5-3	62 TEX 8-5	112 SF 10-7
13 SF 3-1	63 TEX 8-1	113 TEX 11-4
14 TEX 6-5	64 SF 6-0	114 SF 10-8
15 SF 5-3	65 SF 8-6	115 TEX 11-5
16 TEX 5-2	66 SF 8-1	116 SF 11-1
17 TEX 4-1	67 SF 9-3	117 TEX 12-3
18 SF 5-2	68 TEX 9-2	118 TEX 12-2
19 TEX 1-0	69 TEX 8-6	119 TEX 10-7
20 SF 4-1	70 TEX 7-0	120 TEX 12-4
21 SF 6-3	71 SF 9-2	121 TEX 10-8
22 SF 6-4	72 TEX 9-3	122 TEX 12-1
23 TEX 6-3	73 SF 8-7	123 SF 11-6
24 TEX 2-0	74 SF 9-4	124 SF 12-2
25 SF 5-1	75 SF 7-0	125 SF 10-0
26 SF 6-5	76 TEX 9-4	126 TEX 11-6
27 TEX 5-1	77 SF 9-5	127 SF 12-3
28 TEX 6-4	78 TEX 9-1	128 TEX 12-5
29 SF 6-2	79 SF 9-6	129 SF 11-7
30 TEX 3-0	80 TEX 8-0	130 SF 12-4
31 TEX 6-2	81 TEX 9-5	131 TEX 11-0
32 SF 2-0	82 SF 10-3	132 TEX 13-4
33 TEX 7-6	83 TEX 10-2	133 SF 10-9
34 SF 1-0	84 SF 9-1	134 TEX 11-7
35 SF 6-1	85 TEX 9-8	135 TEX 13-3
36 SF 3-0	86 TEX 9-6	136 TEX 13-2
37 TEX 4-0	87 SF 8-0	137 SF 12-1
38 SF 7-4	88 TEX 10-3	138 SF 12-6
39 SF 7-3	89 TEX 10-4	139 SF 12-5
40 TEX 6-1	90 SF 10-4	140 SF 11-0
41 TEX 7-4	91 SF 10-2	141 TEX 13-1
42 TEX 7-3	92 SF 9-7	142 SF 11-8
43 SF 7-2	93 TEX 10-1	143 TEX 11-8
44 SF 4-0	94 TEX 9-7	144 TEX 12-0
45 SF 7-5	95 TEX 9-0	145 TEX 12-6
46 TEX 7-5	96 SF 10-1	146 SF 12-7
47 TEX 7-2	97 SF 10-5	147 SF 13-2
48 TEX 5-0	98 TEX 10-5	148 SF 13-5
49 TEX 7-1	99 SF 9-8	149 SF 13-3
50 SF 7-6	100 TEX 11-2	150 TEX 11-10

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Comments

#40 TEX 6-1

UUOOO

I run these simulations during the season for all Dodgers games. Unfortunately, they did not make the playoffs (you know the story). During the playoffs I have been posting these simulations on some of the SBN sites of the teams playing. Currently the two sites are MCC and LSB. I thought I’d try posting one here and see how the crowd liked it. As a fun little side game, we take a guess at the final game score in the table and the five over/under questions. Feel free to bombard me with any questions.

by Xeifrank on Oct 29, 2010 6:06 PM EDT reply actions