Statistician Magician's 2010 NL MVP ballot

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 29, 2010 4:55 PM EDT

2010 MVP ballot:

1) Joey Votto

2) Albert Pujols

5) Josh Johnson

Albert Pujols. Maybe I chose him 2nd because he's Albert Pujols. But maybe he was actually the 2nd best player in the league, as well. I can believe some of both the former, and the latter. But all I care about are the facts. And the fact is this, Albert Pujols batted .312/.414/.596 with a .420 wOBA -- a down year by his standards. And based on his reputation, his glove-work is phenomenal at first (which may or may not be overrated, but it should definitely be taken into account).

Anyway, Pujols wasn't the MVP, just close to it. Joey Votto actually had the best season in the NL. Sure, one could make the argument against him -- that he plays in a hitters park. But the problem with that argument, is that Votto was significantly better on the road, with a .470 wOBA, compared to a .406 wOBA at 'Great American Ballpark.' Until he proves that he is a creation of Cincy, then I will stand behind his numbers. And just for the record, he is not, nor will he ever be a creation of Cincy :)

Votto led the league in both On Base Percentage and Slugging. And only finished 2nd in batting average, to a guy in Carlos Gonzalez, that had a .339 wOBA outside of Colorado. There is no doubt, that Votto was the best hitter in the league. However, "best hitter" does not always translate into "best player."

In this case, it did though.

The best pitcher in the league was Roy Halladay. Something he seems to be accustomed to, of late. Probably the best pitcher in baseball. And no worse than "1b." Halladay threw the most innings in the league (250), had the 4th lowest FIP, 3rd lowest ERA, and was 7th best at keeping the ball on the ground. Per inning, he was not the best pitcher in the league. But add in those 250 innings, he was in fact, the best pitcher. And I have no problem having him 3rd on my MVP ballot.

Troy Tulowitzki is a very good defensive shortstop, with an awesome .408 wOBA. Can't find much better "value" than that. Many years, that might be the best player in the league. Unfortunately for Tulo, this was not one of those years. But there is no shame in being the 3rd best player in 1/2 of baseball, in a given year. His road numbers were very good as well, so he doesn't seem to have benefited from what is left of the Rocky's hitter-friendly ways -- as teammate Gonzalez apparently did.

And last but not least. Well, actually, on this list, he is "least," is Josh Johnson. His rate numbers were the best in the league by a pitcher; 2.30 ERA, 2.41 FIP. But Johnson only pitched in 183 innings. Far too low to be any higher, and possibly low enough to be replaced by a few others on this list. But an ERA+ of 182 is getting close to being historically great. And yes, I know that ERA+ is a little outdated, but I still like to work it in sometimes.

Joey Votto. Feel free to disagree.

Poll

NL MVP?

Albert Pujols

65 votes

Carlos Gonzalez

17 votes

Ubaldo Jimenez

2 votes

Joey Votto

168 votes

Roy Halladay

19 votes

Josh Johnson

1 votes

Troy Tulowitzki

3 votes

Other

5 votes

280 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 37 comments | 1 recs |

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Comments

I voted for Halladay,

but can’t help but think I got it wrong.

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by Justin Bopp on Oct 29, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

I voted for Halladay as well

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

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by PWHjort on Oct 31, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Wrong?

You are not “wrong” by any means. Halladay was awesome, and close enough to the others that it could go to any of three.

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 29, 2010 5:20 PM EDT reply actions

The real surprise is

that Pujols may actually be mortal.

by Justin Bopp on Oct 29, 2010 5:22 PM EDT reply actions

Canadians, particularly those from Toronto

are exceedingly proud of what Joey accomplished this year, and what he will continue to do year after year. He’s cut from the same cloth as Halladay and Pujols, tireless workers who care tremendously about being the best at their craft. There is no doubt in my mind Votto will repeatedly challenge for this award and is certainly capable of winning a few more. What a spectacular season for this awesome Canadian!

by brewerm on Oct 29, 2010 6:09 PM EDT reply actions

This is all wrong

Anyway, Pujols wasn’t the MVP, just close to it. Joey Votto actually had the best season in the NL. Sure, one could make the argument against him — that he plays in a hitters park. But the problem with that argument, is that Votto was significantly better on the road, with a .470 wOBA, compared to a .406 wOBA at ‘Great American Ballpark.’ Until he proves that he is a creation of Cincy, then I will stand behind his numbers. And just for the record, he is not, nor will he ever be a creation of Cincy :)

Votto’s road numbers are inconsequential towards how much of a bump his numbers got at home. He may not be a GAB creation, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t receive help from it. If his home ballpark, was a pitchers park (like, say, Busch stadium) his home numbers likely would have been worse than they were.

Speaking of Busch, using unadjusted stats is never correct. I’m not necessarily saying that Pujols was better, but his park adjusted stats were better.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 30, 2010 4:04 AM EDT reply actions

Which park adjusted stat is better?

wRC+ gives the edge to Votto.

by kcgard2 on Oct 30, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I was looking at Statcorner's numbers

http://www.statcorner.com/batter.php?id=458015
http://www.statcorner.com/batter.php?id=405395

by vivaelpujols on Oct 30, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok

I will take that into account.

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I voted other, just because Ryan Zimmerman not even being a poll option felt wrong.

Joey Votto would probably get my vote though.

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by joof on Oct 30, 2010 8:08 AM EDT reply actions

Good point

The guy is criminally under-appreciated.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Zimmerman

I was actually debating about putting Zimmerman in my top 5. I simply left him off the poll by mistake. I can’t remember to put everyone on the poll.

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Ah, no worries

I was trying to say that he is ignored in general, not necessarily just this (very good) fanpost.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

All Star

I voted him in on my All Star ballot! :)

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

It's a tad odd how underrated he is

I know that he plays in DC, which is obviously the main reason that he’s not hyped much. But he’s arguably the best defensive 3B in the game, and a pretty damn good hitter, as well.

I’ve been championing Zimmerman’s cause as one of the very best players in baseball for a while, and I don’t feel any different now. That 5-year, $45M contract that Zimmerman signed for 2009-2013 has proven to be pretty brilliant on Washington’s part- I remember some people wondering if that was a good deal at the time, and it was abundantly clear even after last season that the Nats were getting a steal.

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by Satchel Price on Nov 3, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Adam Wainwright should be in the best pitcher discussion.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

Check out his home/road career splits before you make that assertation

by benderbrodriguez on Oct 30, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Luckily...

Wainwright will definitely be on my next ballot.

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

But maybe...

I will put him 5th just to piss of some St. Louis writers :)

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I knew it, everybody has it out for us!

Obviously you’re just like Keith Law and Rosenthal, you hate us innocent Cardinals fans!
It’s really painful to hear people actually talk about how so-and-so writer actually dislikes a certain fanbase. Those wacky folks.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Rasmus

Yea, Keith Law’s infatuation with Rasmus is just a conspiracy to aid in the Cardinals keeping him, ultimately having Rasmus become a clubhouse cancer and tearing the franchise apart. :)

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Holy crap

That’s a fantastic theory. I’ll have to steal that!

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

They don't tell me much, honestly

Don’t most players have a home/road split? Just for a quick comparison, his home/road split for FIP doesn’t look too different from Felix Hernandez’. It’s not like he has a split as huge as, say, Carlos Gonzalez.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Why do those matter though?

by vivaelpujols on Oct 30, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Home/road split

A lot of players do. But Votto’s is worse at home, yet he plays in a hitters park. So if anything, it helps his case — at least I thought it did. The commenter above disagrees. One cannot simply look at road numbers to define a player, but it certainly looks fishy when a guy like Carlos Gonzalez kills the ball at home, and is only decent on the road. Relatively small sample though.

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

But I was talking about Wainwright...

Now I’m confused…
Anyway, good fanpost.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh

Sorry.

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Here's the danger with looking at single season home/road splits

They are such a small sample size that they don’t mean anything towards the players true H/R ability. Now I know you are not making that argument, but you kinda are by proxy.

Look at it this way. Say Joey Votto puts up a .406 wOBA at home this year, and you don’t know his road stats. You also know that his home ballpark is an extreme hitters park. Which option is most like:

1) Votto got helped by his park
2) Votto’s park was neutral
3) Votto was hurt by his park

Obviously one is the most reasonable answer given what you know. Now introducing his road stats should barely change than answer at all because those road stats are almost completely independent from his home stats. You could argue that those roads stats reveal that GAB doesn’t affect Votto as much as it does the average player, but because it is such a small sample size, you would have to regress that assumption massively.

Moral of the story, don’t look at home road splits for determining value and especially don’t look at them in a single season.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 30, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Gotcha

Good point. I asked another guy who knows a lot, and he said he too prefers adjusted stats over home/road splits. But for a guy like Jim Rice, who had huge splits over his entire career it does seem to matter. As you said, much larger sample for a career, obviously.

by goeaglesxxxix on Oct 30, 2010 6:31 PM EDT reply actions

CarGo with more votes than Tulo?

It’s all opinion, but I don’t see the case for CarGo.

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by Discofever on Oct 31, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

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by PWHjort on Oct 31, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted Votto

But would be encouraged to see Roy Halladay be a Top 3 finisher in the actual voting.

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by Mish on Oct 31, 2010 9:29 PM EDT reply actions

I thought

his 6.4 WAR in only 122 games and 529 PA’s was solid. Votto had over 100 more PA’s, but I like that Tulo plays the SS position and is a top defensive SS in the league. Just my idea. Votto had the better hitting year, but who knows what Tulo does with that extra 100 AB’s. I know dumb because I’m thinking projections.

I actually should have voted Votto.

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by Jeterian 2 on Nov 5, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions