BtB Power Rankings: End of 2010 Season Data

by JinAZ on Oct 11, 2010 4:28 PM EDT in Power Rankings

It's the final power rankings of 2010!

"On Paper" Playoff Teams

American League: E=Rays, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Braves, C=Reds*, W=Rockies*, WC=Phillies

Quick commentary: among the playoff teams, only the Giants did "make" the power ranking playoff teams. And even in that case, they were within 5 TPI points of taking their division, which is easily within the margin of error here. I'm pretty happy with that.

Another thing that might raise eyebrows is the Braves ranked ahead of the Phillies. Both were clearly very good teams, but I think the Braves look worse now because of all the injuries they suffered. That was a very good team with one heck of a pitching staff.

The only teams that seem excessively high to me are the Blue Jays and the Rockies...and until the last few week so the season the Rockies were very much in the conversation in the real standings. As for the Jays...well...honestly, I can't really reconcile what's going on with that team.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with how the rankings have turned out. It's been a fun project to do these past two years.

Under the Hood

Converting Runs to Wins

Team	G	RS	eRS	RA	eRA	W%	pW%	cW%	SoS	cW%s	xtW	LgQ	TPI
ARI	162	679	675	796	754	0.401	0.426	0.448	0.523	0.471	65	0.482	0.453
ATL	162	753	749	642	632	0.562	0.574	0.578	0.507	0.584	91	0.482	0.567
BAL	162	601	629	770	785	0.407	0.388	0.400	0.507	0.407	66	0.518	0.424
BOS	162	787	794	715	740	0.549	0.545	0.534	0.498	0.531	89	0.518	0.549
CHW	162	723	707	677	700	0.543	0.531	0.504	0.478	0.482	88	0.518	0.500
CHC	162	652	658	730	715	0.463	0.448	0.462	0.497	0.459	75	0.482	0.441
CIN	162	767	784	665	678	0.562	0.566	0.567	0.485	0.553	91	0.482	0.535
CLE	162	653	669	760	765	0.426	0.430	0.438	0.492	0.430	69	0.518	0.447
COL	162	713	721	664	658	0.512	0.533	0.542	0.512	0.554	83	0.482	0.536
DET	162	744	757	736	722	0.500	0.505	0.523	0.482	0.505	81	0.518	0.522
FLA	162	712	715	710	720	0.494	0.501	0.497	0.516	0.513	80	0.482	0.495
HOU	162	623	610	744	712	0.469	0.419	0.429	0.508	0.437	76	0.482	0.419
KCR	162	663	674	828	836	0.414	0.396	0.400	0.498	0.398	67	0.518	0.415
LAD	162	681	681	706	684	0.494	0.483	0.498	0.515	0.513	80	0.482	0.495
LAA	162	688	655	709	746	0.494	0.486	0.440	0.490	0.431	80	0.518	0.448
MIL	162	758	788	812	755	0.475	0.467	0.520	0.498	0.519	77	0.482	0.501
MIN	162	789	764	678	670	0.580	0.571	0.562	0.484	0.546	94	0.518	0.564
NYY	162	842	821	679	719	0.586	0.601	0.563	0.493	0.556	95	0.518	0.573
NYM	162	676	688	672	708	0.488	0.503	0.487	0.513	0.500	79	0.482	0.482
OAK	162	684	694	645	667	0.500	0.526	0.518	0.483	0.500	81	0.518	0.518
PHI	162	757	742	627	664	0.599	0.586	0.552	0.513	0.565	97	0.482	0.547
PIT	162	593	612	875	829	0.352	0.325	0.361	0.511	0.371	57	0.482	0.354
SDP	162	723	693	632	627	0.556	0.562	0.545	0.508	0.553	90	0.482	0.535
SEA	162	529	559	720	717	0.377	0.365	0.390	0.497	0.386	61	0.518	0.404
SFG	162	697	693	583	637	0.568	0.580	0.538	0.511	0.549	92	0.482	0.531
STL	162	759	748	661	671	0.531	0.564	0.550	0.497	0.547	86	0.482	0.529
TBR	162	818	773	662	678	0.593	0.599	0.561	0.494	0.556	96	0.518	0.573
TEX	162	764	760	667	714	0.556	0.563	0.529	0.478	0.507	90	0.518	0.525
TOR	162	763	773	735	690	0.525	0.517	0.553	0.501	0.554	85	0.518	0.571
WSN	162	655	654	742	713	0.426	0.442	0.460	0.512	0.472	69	0.482	0.455

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustments or strength of schedule adjustments, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
SoS = Strength of Schedule. This is an iterative weighted average of the component-based winning percentages of a team's opponents. Described in this post.
cW%s = Schedule-adjusted Component Winning Percentage. Calculated by applying SoS to cW% with the log5 method, as described in this post.
xTW = Extrapolated wins. Based on current real wins to date, and extrapolated wins over the rest of the season. Extrapolations are based on an average of cW% and cW%s, as justified in this post.
LgQ = League Quality. The AL has superior talent to the NL (justification here and here, and modified most recently here. A good introduction to the topic is this post). The number shown is an estimated true talent level (in winning percentage) of the two leagues were they to be able to play one other for a large number of games. It's based on the last two years of interleague, with a small adjustment toward 0.500 to account for the fact that the leagues do play one another and thus have already had a small effect on one another's performance.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on cW%s, after adjustment for league quality. Think of this as the W% we'd expect teams to have if they were all in one big league and were allowed to play 10,000 games vs. every team.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team	RS	eRS	wOBA	OBP	SLG	HitRns	EqBRR	RA	eRA	ERA	FIP*	xFIP	PitRns	Field	BABIP
ARI	679	675	0.317	0.325	0.416	689	-14	796	754	4.81	4.66	4.52	775	21	0.303
ATL	753	749	0.330	0.339	0.401	751	-2	642	632	3.57	3.63	3.79	633	0	0.299
BAL	601	629	0.308	0.316	0.386	635	-5	770	785	4.59	4.36	4.62	762	-23	0.303
BOS	787	794	0.338	0.339	0.451	800	-6	715	740	4.20	4.20	4.30	732	-8	0.301
CHW	723	707	0.323	0.332	0.420	708	-1	677	700	4.09	3.63	4.10	663	-38	0.313
CHC	652	658	0.313	0.320	0.401	663	-5	730	715	4.24	4.05	4.25	705	-10	0.311
CIN	767	784	0.337	0.338	0.436	783	1	665	678	4.02	3.98	4.30	712	33	0.296
CLE	653	669	0.315	0.322	0.378	667	2	760	765	4.30	4.53	4.57	769	4	0.302
COL	713	721	0.325	0.336	0.425	712	8	664	658	4.14	3.67	3.95	651	-6	0.309
DET	744	757	0.332	0.335	0.415	756	1	736	722	4.30	4.14	4.48	736	15	0.302
FLA	712	715	0.324	0.321	0.403	702	14	710	720	4.09	3.91	4.28	697	-23	0.310
HOU	623	610	0.304	0.303	0.362	605	5	744	712	4.09	3.80	4.13	676	-36	0.314
KCR	663	674	0.316	0.331	0.399	690	-15	828	836	4.97	4.83	4.59	797	-39	0.313
LAD	681	681	0.318	0.322	0.379	677	4	706	684	4.01	3.72	4.03	662	-22	0.299
LAA	688	655	0.313	0.311	0.390	670	-14	709	746	4.04	4.15	4.42	735	-11	0.301
MIL	758	788	0.337	0.335	0.424	789	-1	812	755	4.59	4.11	4.23	710	-45	0.319
MIN	789	764	0.333	0.341	0.422	769	-5	678	670	3.95	3.98	4.10	695	25	0.305
NYY	842	821	0.343	0.350	0.436	815	6	679	719	4.06	4.17	4.31	723	5	0.287
NYM	676	688	0.319	0.314	0.383	678	10	672	708	3.73	3.96	4.30	710	2	0.303
OAK	684	694	0.320	0.324	0.378	681	13	645	667	3.58	4.23	4.24	716	48	0.281
PHI	757	742	0.329	0.332	0.413	740	3	627	664	3.68	3.98	3.91	680	16	0.297
PIT	593	612	0.304	0.304	0.373	619	-7	875	829	5.00	4.51	4.53	752	-77	0.321
SDP	723	693	0.320	0.317	0.371	692	1	632	627	3.41	3.94	3.82	668	40	0.293
SEA	529	559	0.294	0.298	0.339	563	-5	720	717	3.95	4.22	4.41	733	16	0.288
SFG	697	693	0.320	0.321	0.408	698	-5	583	637	3.36	3.74	4.11	679	42	0.291
STL	759	748	0.330	0.332	0.402	743	4	661	671	3.57	4.02	4.02	691	20	0.299
TBR	818	773	0.335	0.333	0.403	758	16	662	678	3.78	3.96	4.18	700	22	0.287
TEX	764	760	0.332	0.338	0.419	746	13	667	714	3.93	4.22	4.36	738	24	0.290
TOR	763	773	0.335	0.312	0.454	777	-4	735	690	4.23	3.95	4.18	693	2	0.304
WSN	655	654	0.313	0.318	0.390	664	-10	742	713	4.13	4.14	4.29	715	2	0.307

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: HitRns + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both HitRns and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
HitRns = Base Runs-estimated runs scored, ignoring all base running, using the equation in this post.
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: PitRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP* = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates. HR/FB rates are park adjusted using these park factors.
xFIP = Expected Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
PitRns = Pitching Runs Allowed, the expected runs allowed based on the average of FIP and xFIP. Described in this post.
Field = Described in this post. It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld. BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding. The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The catching methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy. If you want to know, feel free to ask!
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.

FAQ

Q. What are the power rankings?
A. The power rankings are an attempt to rank all teams in major league baseball based on their component statistics (hitting, baserunning, pitching, and fielding), after adjustments for park and strength of schedule (including league difficulty). Unlike most power rankings, these are not based on team wins or actual team runs allowed scored and allowed. It's an alternative way of creating power rankings than you will see in most places.

Q. This seems so complicated it might as well be a black box!
A. It's really not that hard to understand. We estimate runs scored based on hitting and baserunning stats. We estimate runs allowed based on fielding-independent pitching stats, and then add in a fielding stat. Then we adjust for park, plug it into the Pythagorean equation, and apply the strength of schedule adjustments. That gives us an estimate (an estimated winning percentage) of how well a team has performed this year, and that number is what we use to rank the teams. There are a lot of details (I try to break everything down in the descriptions below the tables), but really that's really all we're doing here.

Q. You've obviously got a broken model here because it's not ranking team X like I think they should be ranked.
A. There are errors around each estimate of team performance, and so it is entirely possible for the model to miss on a few teams while still being a meaningful way of ranking them teams. That said, we are always happy to hear specific suggestions as to how to improve them model overall: most of the improvements made over the past year are due to user feedback. ... of course, it's also possible that your perceptions are incorrect and the model is ranking a team in a fair and reasonable fashion.

Q. Shouldn't we just be looking at wins? Isn't that all the matters in the end?
A. It just depends what question you're trying to answer. If you just want to know who will make the playoffs, this isn't the ranking for you (though the extrapolated wins we calculate might be of interest). If you want a look at which teams have performed the best, regardless of whether those performances have resulted in wins and/or runs, you might find this ranking of interest. Also, even if you reject the overall rankings, you may find these rankings useful as a way to check out rankings of team offenses, pitching, fielding, and strength of schedule.

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Comments

I know you get more than a fair share of flak for these

But I always enjoy them. Thanks for all the hard work!

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.

by marcello on Oct 11, 2010 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Agreed, I enjoyed these all year, especially being a Jays fan and continually seeing them being ranked as a top team in the league. LOL…..don’t understand how it works but i’m not complaining.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nowhere to go but up!

by LeafFan1989 on Oct 11, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Ditto

by vivaelpujols on Oct 11, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

Come on Rays!

Driveline Baseball - Advanced Training for the Baseball Athlete (located in Seattle, WA)

by Kyle Boddy on Oct 12, 2010 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

Love this Justin, hope you continue to do them next year.

My Michigan State (and Big Ten) Baseball Blog.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Oct 12, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Jays ranking

Perhaps the AL East is truly that dominant and the Jays enjoy a huge SOS boost. The Yankees certainly ran over the Twins as if they were just a worn out speed bump.

by siggian on Oct 12, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

Toronto's SoS is only 0.501

All the Yankees/Rays/Red Sox games are balanced by Baltimore plus a decent number of games against weaker teams outside of the division. They had 10 games vs. Cleveland and 9 vs. Angels to go with their tough East schedule.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 12, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

It doesn't help that they went 4-6 and 3-6 respectively against those teams

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Oct 12, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

If they'd performed at that same level against better teams, however...

They might have gone 3-7 and 2-7. :)
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 13, 2010 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I think 3 of the losses against Anaheim were complete games by Ervin Santana

Who would obviously not be pitching on any other team.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Oct 14, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

It's 1 run games

With the Jays, it’s always 1 run games that make the real record look worse than the projected record. Over the last 3 years the Jays have the worst record in the AL and second worst overall in 1 run games.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Oct 12, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't mean to attack this or anything

“Another thing that might raise eyebrows is the Braves ranked ahead of the Phillies. Both were clearly very good teams, but I think the Braves look worse now because of all the injuries they suffered.”

The Phillies struggled through injuries all year, they probably had more injury problems this year then the Braves did. I think the difference was the Phils on paper and in reality are a better team than the Braves especially with Oswalt.

Carlos Ruiz missed 3+ weeks
Ryan Howard missed 15 games
Chase Utley missed 40-45 games
Placido Polanco missed 30 games
Jimmy Rollins missed 75 games
Shane Victorino missed 14 games
Joe Blanton missed 3 or 4 starts
JA Happ missed about 15 starts
Jaime Moyer missed about 13 starts
Brad Lidge missed 3 weeks
Ryan Madson missed more than a month

Injuries definitely played a part in the Braves demise, but it also played a part in the Phillies mediocre run up until the all star break or so. Look at the second half statistics for the Phils offense they were 1st in OBP, 2nd in OPS, 1st in Runs Scored. Notice how that was when they were finally healthy sans Rollins?

by Southwest on Oct 13, 2010 1:22 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

I said as much in one of my recent posts—either the one on NL offenses or perhaps the playoff preview one. I was more trying to point out that the Braves were a really good team this year, and was focused on them and not the Phillies in that statement.

I think it certainly is the case that the power rankings are underestimating the quality of the Phillies, both due to injuries and due to the significant mid-season acquisition of Oswalt. On top of that, at least in terms of starting pitching, they are a terrific playoff team because of how they can leverage their elite starting pitching talent and not expose the back end of their rotation.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 13, 2010 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions