BtB Power Rankings: End of 2010 Season Data

It's the final power rankings of 2010!

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"On Paper" Playoff Teams

American League: E=Rays, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Braves, C=Reds*, W=Rockies*, WC=Phillies

Quick commentary: among the playoff teams, only the Giants did "make" the power ranking playoff teams.  And even in that case, they were within 5 TPI points of taking their division, which is easily within the margin of error here.  I'm pretty happy with that.

Another thing that might raise eyebrows is the Braves ranked ahead of the Phillies.  Both were clearly very good teams, but I think the Braves look worse now because of all the injuries they suffered.  That was a very good team with one heck of a pitching staff.

The only teams that seem excessively high to me are the Blue Jays and the Rockies...and until the last few week so the season the Rockies were very much in the conversation in the real standings.  As for the Jays...well...honestly, I can't really reconcile what's going on with that team.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with how the rankings have turned out.  It's been a fun project to do these past two years.

 

Under the Hood

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% SoS cW%s xtW LgQ TPI
ARI 162 679 675 796 754 0.401 0.426 0.448 0.523 0.471 65 0.482 0.453
ATL 162 753 749 642 632 0.562 0.574 0.578 0.507 0.584 91 0.482 0.567
BAL 162 601 629 770 785 0.407 0.388 0.400 0.507 0.407 66 0.518 0.424
BOS 162 787 794 715 740 0.549 0.545 0.534 0.498 0.531 89 0.518 0.549
CHW 162 723 707 677 700 0.543 0.531 0.504 0.478 0.482 88 0.518 0.500
CHC 162 652 658 730 715 0.463 0.448 0.462 0.497 0.459 75 0.482 0.441
CIN 162 767 784 665 678 0.562 0.566 0.567 0.485 0.553 91 0.482 0.535
CLE 162 653 669 760 765 0.426 0.430 0.438 0.492 0.430 69 0.518 0.447
COL 162 713 721 664 658 0.512 0.533 0.542 0.512 0.554 83 0.482 0.536
DET 162 744 757 736 722 0.500 0.505 0.523 0.482 0.505 81 0.518 0.522
FLA 162 712 715 710 720 0.494 0.501 0.497 0.516 0.513 80 0.482 0.495
HOU 162 623 610 744 712 0.469 0.419 0.429 0.508 0.437 76 0.482 0.419
KCR 162 663 674 828 836 0.414 0.396 0.400 0.498 0.398 67 0.518 0.415
LAD 162 681 681 706 684 0.494 0.483 0.498 0.515 0.513 80 0.482 0.495
LAA 162 688 655 709 746 0.494 0.486 0.440 0.490 0.431 80 0.518 0.448
MIL 162 758 788 812 755 0.475 0.467 0.520 0.498 0.519 77 0.482 0.501
MIN 162 789 764 678 670 0.580 0.571 0.562 0.484 0.546 94 0.518 0.564
NYY 162 842 821 679 719 0.586 0.601 0.563 0.493 0.556 95 0.518 0.573
NYM 162 676 688 672 708 0.488 0.503 0.487 0.513 0.500 79 0.482 0.482
OAK 162 684 694 645 667 0.500 0.526 0.518 0.483 0.500 81 0.518 0.518
PHI 162 757 742 627 664 0.599 0.586 0.552 0.513 0.565 97 0.482 0.547
PIT 162 593 612 875 829 0.352 0.325 0.361 0.511 0.371 57 0.482 0.354
SDP 162 723 693 632 627 0.556 0.562 0.545 0.508 0.553 90 0.482 0.535
SEA 162 529 559 720 717 0.377 0.365 0.390 0.497 0.386 61 0.518 0.404
SFG 162 697 693 583 637 0.568 0.580 0.538 0.511 0.549 92 0.482 0.531
STL 162 759 748 661 671 0.531 0.564 0.550 0.497 0.547 86 0.482 0.529
TBR 162 818 773 662 678 0.593 0.599 0.561 0.494 0.556 96 0.518 0.573
TEX 162 764 760 667 714 0.556 0.563 0.529 0.478 0.507 90 0.518 0.525
TOR 162 763 773 735 690 0.525 0.517 0.553 0.501 0.554 85 0.518 0.571
WSN 162 655 654 742 713 0.426 0.442 0.460 0.512 0.472 69 0.482 0.455

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustments or strength of schedule adjustments, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
SoS = Strength of Schedule.  This is an iterative weighted average of the component-based winning percentages of a team's opponents.  Described in this post.
cW%s = Schedule-adjusted Component Winning Percentage.  Calculated by applying SoS to cW% with the log5 method, as described in this post.
xTW = Extrapolated wins.  Based on current real wins to date, and extrapolated wins over the rest of the season.  Extrapolations are based on an average of cW% and cW%s, as justified in this post.
LgQ = League Quality.  The AL has superior talent to the NL (justification here and here, and modified most recently here.  A good introduction to the topic is this post).  The number shown is an estimated true talent level (in winning percentage) of the two leagues were they to be able to play one other for a large number of games.  It's based on the last two years of interleague, with a small adjustment toward 0.500 to account for the fact that the leagues do play one another and thus have already had a small effect on one another's performance.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on cW%s, after adjustment for league quality. Think of this as the W% we'd expect teams to have if they were all in one big league and were allowed to play 10,000 games vs. every team.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG HitRns EqBRR RA eRA ERA FIP* xFIP PitRns Field BABIP
ARI 679 675 0.317 0.325 0.416 689 -14 796 754 4.81 4.66 4.52 775 21 0.303
ATL 753 749 0.330 0.339 0.401 751 -2 642 632 3.57 3.63 3.79 633 0 0.299
BAL 601 629 0.308 0.316 0.386 635 -5 770 785 4.59 4.36 4.62 762 -23 0.303
BOS 787 794 0.338 0.339 0.451 800 -6 715 740 4.20 4.20 4.30 732 -8 0.301
CHW 723 707 0.323 0.332 0.420 708 -1 677 700 4.09 3.63 4.10 663 -38 0.313
CHC 652 658 0.313 0.320 0.401 663 -5 730 715 4.24 4.05 4.25 705 -10 0.311
CIN 767 784 0.337 0.338 0.436 783 1 665 678 4.02 3.98 4.30 712 33 0.296
CLE 653 669 0.315 0.322 0.378 667 2 760 765 4.30 4.53 4.57 769 4 0.302
COL 713 721 0.325 0.336 0.425 712 8 664 658 4.14 3.67 3.95 651 -6 0.309
DET 744 757 0.332 0.335 0.415 756 1 736 722 4.30 4.14 4.48 736 15 0.302
FLA 712 715 0.324 0.321 0.403 702 14 710 720 4.09 3.91 4.28 697 -23 0.310
HOU 623 610 0.304 0.303 0.362 605 5 744 712 4.09 3.80 4.13 676 -36 0.314
KCR 663 674 0.316 0.331 0.399 690 -15 828 836 4.97 4.83 4.59 797 -39 0.313
LAD 681 681 0.318 0.322 0.379 677 4 706 684 4.01 3.72 4.03 662 -22 0.299
LAA 688 655 0.313 0.311 0.390 670 -14 709 746 4.04 4.15 4.42 735 -11 0.301
MIL 758 788 0.337 0.335 0.424 789 -1 812 755 4.59 4.11 4.23 710 -45 0.319
MIN 789 764 0.333 0.341 0.422 769 -5 678 670 3.95 3.98 4.10 695 25 0.305
NYY 842 821 0.343 0.350 0.436 815 6 679 719 4.06 4.17 4.31 723 5 0.287
NYM 676 688 0.319 0.314 0.383 678 10 672 708 3.73 3.96 4.30 710 2 0.303
OAK 684 694 0.320 0.324 0.378 681 13 645 667 3.58 4.23 4.24 716 48 0.281
PHI 757 742 0.329 0.332 0.413 740 3 627 664 3.68 3.98 3.91 680 16 0.297
PIT 593 612 0.304 0.304 0.373 619 -7 875 829 5.00 4.51 4.53 752 -77 0.321
SDP 723 693 0.320 0.317 0.371 692 1 632 627 3.41 3.94 3.82 668 40 0.293
SEA 529 559 0.294 0.298 0.339 563 -5 720 717 3.95 4.22 4.41 733 16 0.288
SFG 697 693 0.320 0.321 0.408 698 -5 583 637 3.36 3.74 4.11 679 42 0.291
STL 759 748 0.330 0.332 0.402 743 4 661 671 3.57 4.02 4.02 691 20 0.299
TBR 818 773 0.335 0.333 0.403 758 16 662 678 3.78 3.96 4.18 700 22 0.287
TEX 764 760 0.332 0.338 0.419 746 13 667 714 3.93 4.22 4.36 738 24 0.290
TOR 763 773 0.335 0.312 0.454 777 -4 735 690 4.23 3.95 4.18 693 2 0.304
WSN 655 654 0.313 0.318 0.390 664 -10 742 713 4.13 4.14 4.29 715 2 0.307

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: HitRns + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both HitRns and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
HitRns = Base Runs-estimated runs scored, ignoring all base running, using the equation in this post.
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: PitRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP* = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.  HR/FB rates are park adjusted using these park factors.
xFIP = Expected Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
PitRns = Pitching Runs Allowed, the expected runs allowed based on the average of FIP and xFIP.  Described in this post.
Field = Described in this post.  It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld.  BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding.  The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The catching methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy.  If you want to know, feel free to ask!
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.

FAQ

Q. What are the power rankings?  
A. The power rankings are an attempt to rank all teams in major league baseball based on their component statistics (hitting, baserunning, pitching, and fielding), after adjustments for park and strength of schedule (including league difficulty).  Unlike most power rankings, these are not based on team wins or actual team runs allowed scored and allowed.  It's an alternative way of creating power rankings than you will see in most places.

Q. This seems so complicated it might as well be a black box!
A. It's really not that hard to understand.  We estimate runs scored based on hitting and baserunning stats.  We estimate runs allowed based on fielding-independent pitching stats, and then add in a fielding stat.  Then we adjust for park, plug it into the Pythagorean equation, and apply the strength of schedule adjustments.  That gives us an estimate (an estimated winning percentage) of how well a team has performed this year, and that number is what we use to rank the teams.  There are a lot of details (I try to break everything down in the descriptions below the tables), but really that's really all we're doing here.

Q. You've obviously got a broken model here because it's not ranking team X like I think they should be ranked.
A. There are errors around each estimate of team performance, and so it is entirely possible for the model to miss on a few teams while still being a meaningful way of ranking them teams.  That said, we are always happy to hear specific suggestions as to how to improve them model overall: most of the improvements made over the past year are due to user feedback.   ...  of course, it's also possible that your perceptions are incorrect and the model is ranking a team in a fair and reasonable fashion.

Q. Shouldn't we just be looking at wins?  Isn't that all the matters in the end?
A. It just depends what question you're trying to answer.  If you just want to know who will make the playoffs, this isn't the ranking for you (though the extrapolated wins we calculate might be of interest).  If you want a look at which teams have performed the best, regardless of whether those performances have resulted in wins and/or runs, you might find this ranking of interest.  Also, even if you reject the overall rankings, you may find these rankings useful as a way to check out rankings of team offenses, pitching, fielding, and strength of schedule.

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