Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook

DiamondView: 2009 Baltimore Orioles

Our trek through the AL East is nearly done. We started at the top of the standings with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox and worked our way down through the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, all of which should be reviewed to understand why our next subject had such a rough go of it in 2009.

Today, the 2009 Baltimore Orioles.

2B Brian Roberts

Batter-dvc2-orioles-2b-roberts_medium

Much in the same way Overbay represents the Blue Jays plight, it's hard not to notice a similar situation for the Orioles with Roberts. At 32, Brian Roberts still has juice left in his reliable bat, but it might be time to panic about his descending defense. The age cliff appears to be near if not in the rear view, as UZR has him going from a healthy 5.0 in 2006, to -2.0 and -1.3 the next two years, all the way down to a -9.0 for 2009. Take a look at his SB/CS over the same period and chalk it up to a lost step or two:

2007: 50/7 | 2008: 40/10 | 2009: 30/7

As Baltimore waves goodbye to the brightest days of their once golden son, Brian will be saying hello to $10 million per year over the next four years. As bleak as that sounds, he does still have value (3.4 WAR in 2009) and is still in the top two or three players on the team.

Star-divide

1B Aubrey Huff

Batter-dvc2-orioles-1b-huff_medium

Aspiring Free Agents: this is how you become a permanent one (unless you want to become a Royal). At 33, every one of Aubrey's skills appears to be dwindling if not already gone. Even if one thought he might still have some value as a DH (he did get 15 home runs), his 2009 line of .241/.310/.384 is nearly a mirror image of a cheaper but still overpaid Mike Jacobs (.228/.297/.401) who is at least 3 years younger. Replacing Mr. Huff with 32-year-old Ty Wigginton (.273/.314/.400) is hoping that the audience doesn't notice that this is a different Becky.

 

3B Melvin Mora

Batter-dvc2-orioles-3b-mora_medium

Wigginton didn't have enough PA to qualify for this study, so you get to see what a 37 year-old replacement player looks like. As it stands, it appears that Ty will be sliding over to the other corner and Garret Atkins (.226/.308/.342) will be taking over at 3rd. And while some past Rocky Mountain High has you thinking he'll be any good, his diamondview would look fairly similar to Mevin's here. Clockwise from noon it would read: 22 | 25 | 05 | 41. That means worse on base, a little better power that you can account for in Denver, worse base running, and worse with the glove. Read: worse, worse, worse, worse.

 

C God Himself

Batter-dvc2-orioles-c-wieters_medium

The biggest fantasy scam ever had himself a decent little introduction to the majors. Let's see how he does with little protection in the lineup as he finds his footing in the bigs. Check out his block % while wondering if he can maintain that OBP in his sophomore outing.

 

CF Adam Jones

Batter-dvc2-orioles-cf-jones_medium

I can't be the only one disappointed with a tremendously fast guy with a below-average glove, can I? UZR has him at -4.7 for 2009 after a nice 9.9 romp in 2008. With slightly above average power for a CF and league average on base ability, Baltimore has itself a nice little average centerfielder that shouldn't embarrass them too much. Throw in his 2009 $400k salary and the Orioles have to be pleased that they have a least one good backup player on their team.

 

LF Nolan Reimold

Batter-dvc2-orioles-lf-reimold_medium

UZR doesn't think much of Reimold here (-10.9), but if he gets PT, he can be another league-average (LFer) hitter and baserunner for the Orioles, who seem to be lacking in league-average guys.

 

RF Nick Markakis

Batter-dvc2-orioles-rf-markakis_medium

Nick the Stick actually had a down year in 2009 with a .293/.347/.453, but CHONE projects slight improvement at .301/.373/.484 for 2010. The bigger concern is his fielding which was a -5.8 UZR for the year after an excellent 12.1 in 2008. Hopefully Baltimore can squeeze some value out of his 6-year $60-million-something contract.

 

SS Cesar Izturis

Batter-dvc2-orioles-ss-izturis_medium

Somewhere Dayton Moore is doing backflips looking for guys that have a DiamondView that looks exactly like this for every position. It's hard to say that Orioles fans should be content with anything, but if one looks at the outfield defense at Camden, maybe they can take away some little nugget of hope that Cesar can earn of few of those back with his outstanding defense.

 

Baltimore Team Composite

Batter-dvc2-orioles-teamavg_medium

One of the best criticisms, in my opinion, of the DiamondView is that the eye assumes area of each diamond segment equals the statistical amount (despite the giant white numbers on the perimeter). However, one only need look at this team composite to see the value of the current presentation. That gaping hole in the upper left tells us quantitatively what we know spiritually: the Orioles simply cannot get on base and they cannot field, or at least no player on the team shares both talents. The fact that they're equally "talented" on the other half should be sobering indeed.

 

Up Next: AL East Comparison

 

Review:

AL East: YankeesRed Sox | RaysBlue Jays | Orioles

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

The outfield defense is not that bad off paper

IMO, the problem with the defense is giving 400 innings to pitchers with over 20 LD%, including starters Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, Jason Berken, and Mark Hendrickson. Eaton and Hill were so bad that they couldn’t manage 100IP between their 21 starts. Batters just hammered balls into the outfield, one after the other.

They have their issues, of course, Reimold played RF in the minors, and played with a torn Achilles. Jones needs to play back 2 steps. I don’t think the fielders are getting (or using) proper positioning info. It’s just strange to me that so many players declined defensively in one year.

Just a minor thing, it seems more natural to me if they were rotated 90, so that OBP is at 1B, fielding at 2B, baserunning at 3B and power at home. It’s a great visual concept. Is there someplace where I can peek under the hood?

by CoachOfEarl on Jan 7, 2010 12:54 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Excellent insight regarding the outfield defense.

But what changed really changed between 2008 and 2009?

Seeing Markakis and Jones drop like that is certainly a red flag, but unless a higher LD% leads to fatigue (one could make that argument), why would it affect a stat like UZR, which measures their gloves in context on a per-play basis (rather than cumulative)? If anything, one might argue that increased sample size might reveal true talent level.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 7, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

To me, only 1200 or so innings of UZR data isn't particularly accurate

Yeah, I have a tough time placing too much value in a single year of UZR data, especially when the fluctuations are so substantial.

Maybe something to work on would be using a three-year total UZR/150 rather than just one-year UZR, or maybe compiling UZR, plus-minus, TotalZone and other metrics to provide a composite runs above/below average.

The defense thing is really my only qualm with what is otherwise a really, really cool tool to use for quick reference.

Baseball and Satchels, the dynamic duo.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

by Satchel Price on Jan 7, 2010 2:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Let's come up with a solution when we do projected DiamondViews.

Let’s combine your idea with some catcher data and see what happens.

Somebody (justin?) suggested using several projections for each and I dont’ see any issue with going that direction with fielding as well.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 7, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know as much about UZR as I'd like

other than it takes zones into account, I’m not sure how it does so. Does it take speed of the ball into account, or spin? I’m certain it treats them all in a neutral context.

Fatigue may well be a factor, and the data may be out there, in some cumulative balls in zone per inning statistics. One would expect after the first couple balls hit to an outfield position, they become harder to field. This is probably a small effect, and would take a lot of work to dig out, and add complexity to an already complex process. But fatigue is real, it’s the main reason that pitchers are pulled from ballgames, usually manifesting itself as a drop in effectiveness.

I don’t believe that Jones’ and Markakis’ drops are regression, and they certainly aren’t age related. I expect their defensive ratings to go back to positive next year.

You asked what changed: All of those pitchers I mentioned came to the team, and left. Hendrickson might be back as a reliever, where he is more effective, and Berken will probably go to AAA.

by CoachOfEarl on Jan 7, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Regarding the arrangement of statistics visually:

That’s certainly a fun idea and should be considered. It would add just slight bit more subtext to it which would be a little gift to those that appreciate it. That being said, I hate the visual idea of putting fielding above on base and power. It makes me shiver (as well of the thought of retelling the visual story of the changing shape for each player type).

And what exactly do you want to see under the hood? The stats are OBP, ISO, eqbrr, and UZR/150 with some minimum number of PA. The players are picked for these reviews based on a combination of PT and availability of their scores in my DB. The position averages are figured using the average of players that made the diamondview minimum PA. The team average is the average of the starters listed. The graph is a combination of programs and effects.

If you’d like to see how this was developed, I can dig up the link.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 7, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I can't figure out the 100 scale

What is 100 and what is 0? I’m guessing it’s normalized, but to what?

The logic of my arrangement is that OBP gets you to 1B, baserunning gets you to 3B, and power gets you home, and fielding is done in the middle of the diamond. There are lots of ways to do it, and when I come up with something this smart then I’ll get to pick.

Thanks for the clarification, I’m a professional numbers skeptic (aka scientist), so I’m instinctively a pain in the ass without realizing it when I see numbers with no units.

by CoachOfEarl on Jan 7, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep. Your arrangement makes a ton of sense and I will strongly consider it.

I’d like additional feedback if it is too late to change. Anybody else have thoughts on a roation to the visual?

.

As far as 0 and 100 go, the stats are a percentile for each category. Here’s an example set of the spread for OBP.

(Percentile = Stat – Player)
100 = .444 – Mauer
075 = .362 – Butler
050 = .338 – Church
025 = .311 – Wells
000 = .256 – Cedeno

There are 328 DiamondView qualified players.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 7, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

That makes sense, thanks.

I would post a writeup with all of these explanations and link to it each time you use it.

by CoachOfEarl on Jan 7, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep. OBP and ISO.

I don’t believe they are park adjusted, and I know fielding isn’t position adjusted. Let me get with Jeff to see if they are.

Perhaps going back to the drawing board with the data would make this even more useful? Perhaps making this using projected stats would be more ambiguous but wouldn’t require park or positional adjustments?

by Justin Bopp on Jan 7, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Something like this could be done with projections for next season.

Using CHONE’s projections, for example, which are park-neutral.

I bring it up because Coors and Petco are pretty darn extreme, and representing them vs. a league average will make player numbers look really good/bad. At the same time, I’m unsure how I would adjust OBP and ISO without using component PF’s. Does anyone know how Sean Foreman does the park adjustments for OPS+?

by SFiercex4 on Jan 7, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Matt Wieters doesn't need to run the bases

He just needs to stop floating long enough to touch them.

Also, regarding lineup protection, you realize he was hitting behind Melvin Mora and Luke Scott for much of the year, and that his protection was Cesar Izturis?

by CoachOfEarl on Jan 7, 2010 2:46 PM EST reply actions  

Looking at this

Makes me wonder about defensive positioning. Two outfielders who have a track record of being pretty good defensively went negative. Although I guess some of that may have to do with having a guy play without an achilles tendon in left (ok so it was still 25% attached. That he played at all this season is pretty amazing). Positioning to make up for that black hole in left could make a difference.

I find it funny that base-running was up so high considering that was a major problem for the Orioles last season. Anyway we should see some improvement next year since both Huff and Mora left after having career-worst seasons

Also here are Reimold’s Total Zone numbers from the minors according to minorleaguesplits. He’s probably a below-average fielder but not the blackhole we saw in 2009

Yr Age Team Lg Org/Lev Pos Outs Chances Runs Runs/150 Home Away
2005 21 Frederick CAR BAL/A+ CF 27 44 0 - 1 -1
RF 14 26 0 - 1 -2
2005 21 Aberdeen NYP BAL/SS 1B 0 0 0 - 0 0
CF 31 49 1 - 1 0
RF 59 98 2 - 1 1
2006 22 Frederick CAR BAL/A+ CF 46 72 3 - 0 3
RF 167 328 -9 -14 -2 -7
2007 23 Bowie EL BAL/AA LF 1 2 0 - 0 -1
RF 86 170 1 - -1 2
2007 23 GCL Orioles GCL BAL/RK RF 12 26 0 - 0 0
2008 24 Bowie EL BAL/AA CF 0 0 0 - 0 0
LF 8 14 1 - 0 1
RF 218 430 -4 -5 -1 -3
2009 25 Norfolk IL BAL/AAA LF 38 79 -1 - 1 -2

by OsandRoyals on Jan 7, 2010 3:11 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
FIP is a Garbage Statistic
Jeter_400_101709_small
Scarier opponent come October?
Ghanafan03_741584gm-a_small
Los Angeles Angels trade for Dan Haren
Pedoria1_small
Pointing Fingers: Rollie Fingers and WAR
Small
Rajai Davis versus Gabe Gross
Small
Year of the Pitcher
Sealab_murphy_small
Prospect Surplus Value
T-rex_small
Saberizing a Mac, revisited
Small
How do you use splits?
Sealab_murphy_small
My Wang Problem

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Sign up for the BtB Newsletter!

BtB on Facebook

BtB on Twitter

RSS Feed: @BtBScore

Sky: @BtB_Sky

Jeff: @jeffwzimmerman
Steve: @steve_sommer
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp
Satchel: @SatchelPrice
Adam: @baseballtwit
Larry: @wezen_ball
Peter: @CapitolAvenue
Paul: @TheDiaTribe
Daniel: @CamdenCrazies
Matt: @devil_fingers

SBNation.com Recent Stories

ST. LOUIS - MAY 18:  Ryan Ludwick #47 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds third base after hitting a game-winning homerun against the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium on May 18, 2010 in St. Louis, Missouri.  The Cardinals beat the Nationals 3-2.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) +3 updates

Padres, Cardinals, Indians Complete Three-Way Trade Involving Ryan Ludwick, Jake Westbrook

SEATTLE - JULY 08:  Alex Rodriguez #13 of the New York Yankees hits an RBI single in the ninth inning to give the Yankees a 3-1 lead against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on July 8 2010 in Seattle Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images) +16 updates

Yankees' 9th-Inning Win Completely Overshadowed By A-Rod's Ongoing Homer Drought

Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez is congratulated by teammates after his walk-off home run against the Chicago Cubs in the ninth inning of a baseball game at Coors Field in Denver, Colo. on Saturday, July 31, 2010.  (AP Photo/ Matt McClain)

Carlos Gonzalez Completes Cycle With Walk-Off Homer; Rockies Beat Cubs, 6-5

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Dayton_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Paige_small Satchel Price

Authors

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Newavatar_small Matt Klaassen

Wezenball-logo_small lar

Big_pun--300x300_small Tommy Rancel

Adam_small adarowski

Redcap_small SFiercex4

St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263_small stevesommer05

Small garik16

Julio_teheran_2_small PWHjort

Cclogo_small Daniel Moroz

Closeup4_small J-Doug

Nick_cage_small The DiaTriber