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DiamondView: 2009 Toronto Blue Jays

The DiamondView descent through the AL East standings marches on. Please review our coverage of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays for perspective, and if you're a Toronto fan, a depressing reality check.

While the Halladay departure has certainly dominated the coverage of our neighbors to the north, a look at the spread of "talent" among the 2009 starting lineup may illuminate several existing issues and opportunities for improvement.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 4th place 2009 Toronto Blue Jays:

1B LYLE OVERBAY

Batter-dvc2-bluejays-1b-overbay_medium

Lyle's DiamondView shows us Toronto's problem in a nutshell: an average player (32) with below-average defense with at least one major hole in his toolbelt--all at a premium position on the field that is completely dominated by three other teams in the divison. He is an average first baseman with the stick, good for an OBPs of .315, .358, and .372 for the past three years while barely squeezing out an ISO of .151, .149, and .201 over the same period. One might notice that this latest year has actually been an uptick, so expect him to regress to the mean a bit for 2010.

While some would suggest that his value is his glove, even a quick glance at his UZR for the past three years shows a precipitous drop from 3.9 to 2.9 to -0.6 (and that's ignoring his -5.2 in 2006!). And if you're holding out for discipline on the base path, you're holding out for a guy that will never get caught stealing because he never tries. That said, there are Ford Pintos running better than Mr. Overbay here.

Star-divide

2B AARON HILL

Batter-dvc2-bluejays-2b-aaronhill_medium

Who doesn't love a two-bee with a little power? If you ignore a decent career AVG (.285) but a modest OBP (.337) that puts him below the average major league 2nd Baseman, bricks for shoes and a disappointing glove (UZR has him at -2.3 for 2009 after a 0.7 campaign in 2008), he's awesome!

 

3B SCOTT ROLEN

Batter-dvc2-bluejays-3b-rolen_medium

Now we're talking. Here's a 3rd baseman that has league average power for a 3B and won't embarrass himself on the base path. He nearly matched his career .370 OBP with a .368 for 2009, and while he's seen a slight decrease in his ability with the glove, he's still surpassing most 3Bs with a 5.6 and 5.7 UZR over the past two years. That said, he's 34, so I say we trade him for a younger guy that has a career line of .260/.341/.448, runs like he forgot something behind him and couldn't catch a ball if it was handed to him. Make the transition a little easier to swallow with a nice pitching prospect and celebrate with fireworks for some nice family fun.

 

C ROD BARAJAS

Batter-dvc2-bluejays-c-barajas_medium

Ignoring defense until we apply some catcher metrics (soon, I promise!), we're looking at a guy that eeked out 20 walks in 430 tries while crawling towards a Tony-Pena-Jr-esque .258 OBP for the year. He can't run either. But hey, he's good for the random dinger. Speaking of former Royals, there's little wonder why Toronto jumped at the chance to sign John Buck.

 

CF VERNON WELLS

Batter-dvc2-bluejays-cf-vwells_medium

Now would be uh-oh time. The 126 Million Dollar Man has league average power for a CF (ISO .140) and can still hold his own on the base-path (17 SB / 4 CS), but that ranking as a fielder is for real. Reeeeal bad. The Phantom Menace bad. The ball is Queen Amidala clunking out her wooden lines and Vernon's glove is the child actor just happy to be in the same movie with that one green muppet that Dad used to like. "Suck at fielding, you will."

 

LF TRAVIS SNIDER

Batter-dvc2-bluejays-lf-snider_medium

Did you know that Snider was Ricciardi's first high school player pick in the first round? The good sign here is that he's got the two things a left fielder needs at a young age, with already-league-average-for-a-LF power (2009 ISO .178 in 276 PA) and is better than the average bear in left with the leather. Whether he learns a little more patience at the plate (likely) or improves his base-running (unlikely) remains to be seen.

 

RF ALEX RIOS

Batter-dvc2-bluejays-rf-rios_medium

SIXTY NINE MILLION DOLLARS.

 

SS MARCO SCUTARO

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Finally a player in the lineup Toronto fans can be proud of, but his duties now rest in Boston. The 34-year-old did have an above average year for himself in OBP (2009 - .379 vs. Career - .337) but was otherwise a league average shortstop.

 

TEAM COMPOSITE

Batter-dvc2-toronto-team-avg_medium

If one considers these stats are percentiles, and that Toronto ranks below 50 in three of them, one might begin to understand the problem. Can't get on base, can't run, can't field, and simply not enough power from the guys that have to have it. John Buck will be an improvement at home, but switching Rolen for Encarnacion and Scutaro for Alex Gonzalez probably doesn't make this any better.

 

Next Up: Baltimore Orioles

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Adam Lind

Shame you didn’t use Adam Lind over Rios. He’s abject in the field but a decently safe baserunner and a raking machine. He might put some shine back in the Jays star.

by Lloyd D. Barber on Jan 6, 2010 4:11 PM EST reply actions  

BPro

I’m surprised he’s that bad. His Baseball Prospectus numbers from 08 weren’t awful and I thought 09 was around average. Either way, tremendous work.

by Lloyd D. Barber on Jan 6, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

That bad?

He was a 3.5 to 4 win DH last year

I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 6, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

You can be a horrid baserunner

and still post a quality WAR if you’re a DH that is a great all-around hitter. As we’ve seen here, Lind is a nice example. I’m sure that most of the high quality DH’s have similar DiamondViews.

Baseball and Satchels, the dynamic duo.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

by Satchel Price on Jan 7, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

my bad

I missed the title.

Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 7, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Loving the series. I was surprised to see Aaron Hill's shape.

Knew he didn’t walk much to help along the high average, but I was surprised that he appeared so below average. I think UZR is underestimating his defense a bit, I hear good things scouting wise.

by SFiercex4 on Jan 6, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions  

Hill won the 2009 Fielding Bible Award

as the best defensive second baseman in the game. Certainly, it’s tough to believe that Utley didn’t win, but realistically, I think that this is one of those instances where UZR wasn’t particularly accurate.

Hill has won two FB awards (he won in 2007 too) in his last two healthy seasons, so I think that it’s fair to consider him a plus defender.

Baseball and Satchels, the dynamic duo.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

by Satchel Price on Jan 6, 2010 4:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Fielding Bible awards are voted on

but John Dewan and Bill James get 20% of the vote between them, so it’s a little more credible than the BBWAA’s awards.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Jan 6, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Voted on by wayyy better voters

There are only ten voters, including James and Dewan as you noted, but also Neyer, Posnanski, Baseball Info Solution scouts, and other names who would never consider Nate McLouth the best CF in the NL, for example.

The Fielding Bible puts the Gold Gloves to shame, as the GG are voted on by managers who don’t particularly know that much about how to judge defense (apparently) and it’s sponsered by a manufacturer who clearly has little interest in the award’s legitimacy.

Baseball and Satchels, the dynamic duo.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

by Satchel Price on Jan 6, 2010 6:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Total Zone

Total Zone rates Hill decently as well.

Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 6, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Starting to get a nice list of potential improvements for DiamondView 2.0 (2010 projection):

1. Positional Adjustment for fielding
2. Better fielding data across the board, including catchers.
3. Using projected data vs. Career lines

by Justin Bopp on Jan 6, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions  

"Why they failed in 2009"

Because their interim president forbade the GM to add one thin dime to the payroll until he hired a permanent president, then took a whole year to hire himself?

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Jan 6, 2010 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

Suprised to see the big difference in the Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill graphs

Zobrist got no MVP love and Hill did playing for the lesser team. Also good to know that Wells and Rios were paid well to be above average baserunners.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 6, 2010 4:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Love the graphics Justin

You’ve already done the work for my team (NYY), but as long as you keep this series up I won’t skip a single one. Sometimes my eyes glaze over looking at columns of wOBA and wRC+ data, but comparing players by position on a 0-100 scale really emphasizes the differences.

by screekwr on Jan 6, 2010 6:08 PM EST reply actions  

Thank you so much for the feedback.

And I’m very, very similar. I’ve always been a visual guy and it’s always been the fastest way for me to learn.

The key for myself, and I think many others like us, is a point of reference. That is why I think these work. The opportunity to improve remains on the data side (as the UZR Aaron Hill discrepancy shows), but still.

Thanks again.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 6, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, you're exactly right.

It must be the way my brain operates. When I look at Barajas vs. Posada by OBP, the temptation is to say, sure Posada has him beat by ~100 points, but what’s that really? 1 time more on base every 10 PAs? It sort of minimizes the difference for me.

But looking at it on your graphics, Jorgie’s 76 vs Barajas’ 00, and then scaled to the league-wide best OBP for a catcher, it brings everything into focus, especially the positional matchups. It sort of says, hold on, there’s a serious difference here. One guy is in the 76th percentile, and the other is WORST at getting on base out of anyone in the league who plays his position! Now I can start to see the differences in roster construction and team philosophy, things that really reveal the identity of each club and how they plan to win.

Anyway, thanks a ton for the work you’re doing. Can’t wait to see what you come up with for pitchers in the future.

by screekwr on Jan 6, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Gimme 'til Friday.

I’m going to post an AL East Review with a link back to each article and a team composite image for each.

WAIT until you see what it looks like. It’s absolutely shocking and reinforces sabermetrics as a tool that reflects actual standings. I’m very, very proud of what you’re going to see.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 6, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

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