Is Ricky Nolasco's problem the stretch? A Pitch f/x attempt

I tried to use Pitch f/x to figure out if Ricky Nolasco has abnormal problems out of the stretch (with runners on). I calculated those stats for Nolasco, but does anyone have a major league or NL average for those?

about 2 years ago SFiercex4 9 comments 0 recs |

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The numbers are out there. I remember seeing them once.

Harry may know.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 5, 2010 7:53 PM EST reply actions

Which stats do you want?

I can calculate them for you.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 6, 2010 4:23 AM EST reply actions

For RHP against RHB

In Zone%

Pitches Taken in zone / Total Pitches in zone (Watch%)

Chase%

Whiff%

If this could be split into for bases empty and runners on, it’d be good, but really anything will work. I just want to compare Nolasco’s stats with runners on and bases empty to a league standard. Thanks for any help on that VEP.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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by SFiercex4 on Jan 6, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions

I've posted averages

but not splits, but I can do those unless vep gets it to your first

by Harry Pavlidis on Jan 7, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions

If anyone can get to it, that would be excellent. Thanks for volunteering Harry.

I hate to ask, but I’ve not yet gotten the gumption to work on a database for Pfx. I really should.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Jan 7, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Here are the league averages for 2009

zone: .5071
watch: .3783
chase: .2655
whiff: .1890

For the horizontal limits to the strikezone, I used -1 and 1 for RHH, and -1.121 and .825 for LHH (taken from John Walsh’s THT article). For the vertical ends, I used the sz_bot and sz_top provided by the stringers.

Here are the splits with runners on and bases empty

Empty
zone: .5194
watch: .3975
chase: .2601
whiff: .1846

Runner’s on
zone: .4916
watch: .3529
chase: .2720
whiff: .1943

However, I’m not sure those are too useful due to selection bias – worse pitchers will face a higher percentage of their batters with runners on than good ones. If you use a weighted average of the differences by pitcher, you get this:

e.zone – o.zone: .0263
e.watch – o.watch: .0457
e.chase – o.chase: -.0139
e.whiff – o.whiff: -.0094

Where (e.blank – o.blank) is split with bases empty minus split with runners on base. So with the basis empty, a player throws more pitches inside the strike zone, batter’s take more pitches inside the strike zone, batter’s swing at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone and batter’s whiff slightly less.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 8, 2010 8:31 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks VEP. The weighted average of the differences is definitely the right call.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Jan 8, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

In case anyone was interested, here's a followup.

Link: http://marlinmaniac.com/2010/01/08/update-on-nolasco-and-the-stretch/

If you compare the splits VEP provides with the one’s Nolasco put up, it shows that he did worse than the league with runners on, which confirms the rate drops, especially in K%.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Jan 8, 2010 2:56 PM EST reply actions

The next question is why this is happening

Take a look at his pitch selection, location and sequencing and see how much of a difference there is with runners on base. If there is little to no difference, than you can say that he’s simply gotten unlucky. If there is a big difference, than is a “skill” most likely.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 8, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions