BtB Sabermetric Writing Awards: Nominations for Best Novel Research Article or Project
by JinAZ on Jan 5, 2010 2:00 PM EST
in Awards & Honors
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PrintThe original post describing this project can be found here.
Please use the comments of this post to nominate articles for the "Best Novel Research Article or Project" award. Here is the description for this category:
Original sabermetric research that enhances our understanding of some general aspect of baseball. These studies should help establish new sabermetric principles, metrics, techniques, or perspectives. Think "breakthrough research" when nominating this category.
Please take a moment and think about what you think are the best, most influential sabermetric research articles of the past year. Nominate them below by replying, and please use the following format for clarity:
Title & Author: [title & author]
Link: [self explanatory]
Comment: [one sentence description of why you think the article should be considered]
You may nominate more than one article (including your own stuff), but please try to be somewhat selective (i.e. don't post a link to three-dozen articles you thought were good...pick you favorite two or three). Also, please make a separate reply for each nomination.
Finally, please remember that all nominations must be "seconded" to advance to the next stage. Therefore, even if you can't think of an original article to nominate off-hand, please look through the comments and see if there are recommendations that you would endorse. If so, just reply and write "seconded!" Discussion of a nomination's merits are also very welcome.
Thanks for taking the time to nominate an article!
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Matt Swartz: Improving BABIP Estimation
At The Good Phight:
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2009/2/2/743228/improving-babip-estimation
It’s well-thought out, concise, and transparent on a subject that is very rarely tackled at that deep a level.
Dave Allen: PitchF/X Detective: Has Bradley's Strike Zone Been Widened
Over at Baseball Analysts: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/pitchfx_detecti.php
I know that it applies specifically to Bradley, but he’s done these contour maps for a few other players and I think they’re a great use of Pitch f/x, not only for analysis of player value but as a way to project future performance and assist players with their plate approach (if it gets in the hands of front offices).
I’ll actually probably tack on more Allen stuff, he’s excellent.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
I do think the strike zone contour maps are awesome.
Dave’s home run direction charts are sweet, too.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
Was going to send a shout out to that as well. On the way.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
Yeah, the HR direction charts are great. Allen is definitely one of the best.
Baseball and Satchels, the dynamic duo.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 5, 2010 2:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Jeremy Greenhouse: Controlling the Zone
At Baseball Anaysts:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/controlling_the.php
Jeremy’s writing and overall work is awesome, and this is a great example of it.
Seconded. Loved that piece.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
Dave Allen: How Much Power Will Mauer Keep?
From FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/thinking-about-a-mauer-extension/
This is a display of his latest HR direction map, which I also think is excellent for visualization.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
The visualization is a new technique that arose this year
A lot of times new techniques come with case examples. I think it fits. But if folks think it’s more competitive in the applied research domain, then you guys can say so and move it there. :)
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Chase-ing the FieldF/x: Max Marchi
http://profpeppersassistant.blogspot.com/2009/02/chase-ing-fieldfx.html
The first time I’ve seen cluster analysis used with spray charts – Max located the ideal positioning against Chase Utley.
...
Mike Fast: Confessions of a Dips Apostate
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/confessions-of-a-dips-apostate/
An amazing look at the outcome of batted balls by location.
KC / Omaha Cheeseburger Crisis: Porcus
http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/3/17/801747/kc-omaha-cheeseburger-cris
Look at how baseball almost deprived 2 midwest town of one of the greatest foods of all time.
If there is one article I will remember from the 2009 season, it will be this one.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
seconded
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 8, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
Steve Sommer: Defensive Projections
http://stlsportsscene.wordpress.com/2009/10/29/uzr-scouting-and-the-fans/
http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/2009/11/21/defensive-projections-take-2/
Took Fan’s Scouting Report and UZR, did some regression, and came up with some new numbers. Great idea in helping to advance defensive analysis.
Put that under applied research and I'll second it ;)
Steve took two existing concepts and data sources and merged them together, which is the definition of applied research.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 12, 2010 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Right, Rally and others have done this as well.
I’ll move it to applied research and consider it seconded.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Brian Cartwright: Major League Equivalencies
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8887
Challenges common assumptions on how to accurately model MLEs
by Brian Cartwright on Jan 6, 2010 12:45 AM EST reply actions
I concur
The piece is really good, just never heard of the guy. Maybe a newbie :)
We take all comers here
Even someone who has absolutely zero credentials or history of doing excellent work. :b
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
“I concur”? Does that translate to “seconded”?
Jinaz – that’s the last time you get to come over to my house to watch a game!
by Brian Cartwright on Jan 6, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Keeping the Hitter Off Balance: Mixed Strategies in Baseball, Jesse Weinstein-Gould
http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol5/iss2/7/
The first, and I think best, of the empirical game theory pitch selection articles that came out this year.
by lefty45 on Jan 6, 2010 8:44 AM EST reply actions
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention: Justin Bopp: DiamondView
From our very own Beyond the Box Score: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/9/16/1032763/introducing-diamondview-composite
Going with the visualizations again, I believe this is the best way to visualize a player’s skillset that we currently have. The stuff that Justin is doing with the team reviews, especially comparing players to position average and making a team composite, have been excellent.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
This, and the other Dave Allen piece on Mauer aren't "breakthrough research"
Breakthrough research tells us something about baseball that we didn’t know before. The two pieces mentioned are new ways to visualize data, but don’t tell us anything new.
Thank you
But I think we’re looking at “Applied Research” here.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
Nomination: Valuing a Draft by Victor Wang
Links:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-one/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-2/
Why: these articles allow us to assign dollar values to different kinds of draft picks, which is important to help us understand the full impact of free agent compensation (and trading of draft picks, if that ever happens).
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
An Age Old Question by Mitchel Lichtman (MGL)
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/mgls_aging_study/ <-link to PDF file containing study at that blog post
MGL addresses survivor bias in the delta method by using a conservative Marcel projection to include players who drop out of the sample in Year 2 in order to diminish the effects of false decline, which can improve any study which uses the popular delta method.
Wang-Guttridge Trade Model: Victor Wang and Adam Guttridge
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-guttridge-wang-trade-model/
I think this was one of my favorite pieces of the year.
I missed this one
Like it as well, especially the emphasis on marginal value to a club.
Have they released the specific coefficients they use to discount long-term value? I’d be interested to see this, because otherwise I think I can replicate this.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
By my count, there are 11 seconded nominations thus far.
Matt Swartz: Improving BABIP Estimation
At The Good Phight:
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2009/2/2/743228/improving-babip-estimation
Dave Allen: PitchF/X Detective: Has Bradley’s Strike Zone Been Widened
Over at Baseball Analysts: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/pitchfx_detecti.php
Jeremy Greenhouse: Controlling the Zone
At Baseball Anaysts:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/controlling_the.php
Dave Allen: How Much Power Will Mauer Keep?
From FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/thinking-about-a-mauer-extension/
Chase-ing the FieldF/x: Max Marchi
http://profpeppersassistant.blogspot.com/2009/02/chase-ing-fieldfx.html
Mike Fast: Confessions of a Dips Apostate
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/confessions-of-a-dips-apostate/
KC / Omaha Cheeseburger Crisis: Porcus
http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/3/17/801747/kc-omaha-cheeseburger-cris
Brian Cartwright: Major League Equivalencies
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8887
Nomination: Valuing a Draft by Victor Wang
Links:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-one/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-2/
An Age Old Question by Mitchel Lichtman (MGL)
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/mgls_aging_study/ <-link to PDF file containing study at that blog post
Wang-Guttridge Trade Model: Victor Wang and Adam Guttridge
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-guttridge-wang-trade-model/
Do we have to do the cheeseburger one? :)
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
So you are saying cheeseburger aren't important?
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 11, 2010 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like to submit:
When Is A Fly Ball A Line Drive:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-is-a-fly-ball-a-line-drive/
Written by, well, me.
I'll second that. That was really intriguing.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
Using Gameday to build a fielding metric - Peter Jensen
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/using-gameday-to-build-a-fielding-metric-part-1/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/using-gameday-to-build-a-fielding-metric-part-2/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/using-gameday-to-build-a-fielding-metric-part-3/
I’m not sure which category this belongs under, actually. It’s novel research in the sense that it’s the first time anyone’s done this using a public source for batted ball location data, and that’s pretty important, IMO. On the other hand, the concepts of batted ball fielding metrics have been around for a few years in the form of UZR, etc. So maybe it should go under Applied Research. I’d be happy with it in either category.
2009 Projections with Hit Tracker - Greg Rybarczyk
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/02/2009_projection.php
Greg details a new method for doing projections for hitters involving information about batted balls. Eventually I believe this could be the way all projection systems work as we get more and more of this type of detailed batted ball data. It’s a fantastic concept.
I'd like to see how his projections stacked up with the other heavyweights
by vivaelpujols on Jan 11, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
He had another article where he looked at results, but I'm not sure where it was
Also, he only did a dozen or so players. It was more about detailing the methodology. Right now the detailed batted ball data is hard to come by without $$$. But some day that will not be the case and I suspect projections will all be done the way Greg did them here, or similarly.
Pitchf/x summit
I know that he showed how his projections where holding up, as of mid-July, versus the big-boys at the pitchf/x summit. I think they were doing very well at that point. You can download his talk here (and all the rest of them for that matter).
The injury zone - Josh Kalk
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-injury-zone/
A first look at a way of identifying injuries before they fully manifest themselves using Pitch f/x. There some discussion on the applicability of his findings, given that you need roughly 10 pitches to establish the injury zone (and even then there is a lot of overlap); however, the idea combined with the amazing tech ability it took to do the article makes this a legitimate advancement in research.
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