Does Brad Hawpe Still Fit In Colorado?
Over the past few seasons, the Colorado Rockies have deployed Brad Hawpe as their everyday right fielder, and he's been one of their most consistent offensive threats since establishing himself in 2004. With a career wOBA of .372 and a wRC+ of 120, he's consistently been one of the better hitters in the game, with a good approach at the plate, plus power, and consistently high BABIPs.
Unfortunately, Hawpe has also done a lot of work defensively to offset his impressive offensive production, as he's consistently been one of the worst outfielders in the game. For his career, UZR has Hawpe at -21.5 per 150 games, Baseball Prospectus had him at 30 runs below average from 2006 to 2008, and the only everyday right fielders below Hawpe on the 2009 Fan's Scouting Report were Nick Swisher, Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Hermida and Jose Guillen, not exactly the best of company when it comes to defense. To put it simply, Hawpe has proved to be a major liability on the field.
Before 2009, the Rockies weren't exactly loaded with alternatives to Hawpe in right field. They failed to produce quality outfield prospects and did little to address an outfield that was seemingly fine with Matt Holliday and Hawpe on the corners, and a procession of slap hitters, such as Cory Sullivan and Willy Taveras, manning center field. Rather, the team chose to focus on their holes in the middle infield, acquiring top amateur shortstop prospects Troy Tulowitzki, Christopher Nelson and Hector Gomez during the middle part of the decade.
But during last season, three young outfielders, Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith and Dexter Fowler, emerged in Colorado, suddenly giving the Rockies quite the conundrum: What to do with Hawpe?
Certainly, it's not terribly easy to justify benching a hitter who has posted a OBP above .380, wOBA over .375, and wRC+ over 120 in each of the past four seasons. Then again, at the same time, he's only averaged a WAR of 1.2 over that period, because his defense is so poorly regarded by UZR and he's often been pulled late in games for a defensive replacement.
Given the emergence of legitimately high quality alternatives, as well as the increased awareness of the value of defense, it seems that now is the perfect time for the Rockies to finish off their transition away from the Holliday/Hawpe/Atkins era. Between Gonzalez, Smith and Fowler, the Rockies have three relatively solid defensive outfielders with some serious offensive upside.
Which leads to my suggestion: It's time to trade Hawpe. He's still likely to retain some solid trade value because of his gaudy raw hitting statistics, left-handedness and the team acquiring him would have him on a one-year, $7.5M deal as well as his final year of arbitration, as the contract extension he signed in 2008 allows him to void the 2011 club option for $10M ($500K buyout) if he's traded. Now would be a good time to attempt to extract some value from Hawpe, as the Rockies have superior alternatives on the roster and his salary continues to escalate.
An outfield of Gonzalez in center field, Smith in right field and Fowler in left field would give the Rockies a much improved outfield defense, and each of those outfielders has shown the ability to excel at the ML level. Gonzalez posted a .378 wOBA in 317 PA with Colorado last year after mashing in AAA, Smith has a career wOBA of .379 in 518 PA, and Fowler posted a .345 wOBA in 518 PA in 2009, so each of these hitters has shown the ability to be above average, at the very least, offensively.
Even if you factor in some regression offensively for each of those hitters, the improvement defensively from Hawpe to Smith in right and Fowler to Gonzalez in center would more than make up for whatever the offense loses. Our own Jeff Zimmerman projects Hawpe to post a -21 UZR/150 next season, compared to positive marks for Gonzalez and Smith and a below-average mark for Fowler in center field, but that number would presumably improve with a move to a corner spot. When you factor in that none of those guys is even arbitration eligible and Colorado could potentially have an everyday outfield that costs a third of what Hawpe makes alone, it seems like a no-brainer to me to at least entertain trade offers for Hawpe.
And I haven't even mentioned Ryan Spilborghs yet, who might be the best fifth outfielder in the game right now, assuming that the Rockies keep Hawpe around. There really haven't been any indications out of Colorado that they're looking to deal Hawpe, or that they're even interested in trading arguably their best hitter of the past half-decade, but realistically, it appears that the Rockies would be a better team all-around with Gonzalez, Fowler and Smith playing everyday rather than Hawpe.
I wouldn't be remotely surprised if the Rockies relegate Smith to fourth outfielder status and use Hawpe as the primary right fielder and part-time first baseman, backing up the aging Todd Helton. But considering how many runs Hawpe projects to cost the team with his defense, I really don't believe that continuing to use him in the same manner that they have been is the best course for the team. Obviously, he's capable of making a serious impact offensively so they shouldn't give him away in the same way that Florida did with Hermida, but teams in need of a middle of the order hitter with a hole in left field or at designated hitter would presumably make for nice fits.
Then again, when looking at the entire big picture, having too many good outfielders is probably a good problem to have.
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Don't think they would move Fowler off of CF. It'd likely be, from LF -> RF, CarGon/Fowler/Smith.
Otherwise, I agree, though I think that teams will be wary about his statistics. They don’t seem to park-adjust for parks like Fenway or Safeco, but they are very well aware of places like Coors and Petco.
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Which seems to be a mistake to me
Considering how much better Gonzalez’s defensive metrics are. You’re probably right, but I think that there should be major questions asked about Fowler’s ability to stick in center, although his sample size is awfully small.
And I agree that if anything should stop Colorado from dealing Hawpe, it would be a lack of interest due to concerns about his defense.
I guess that baseball was due for another Satchel.
by Satchel Price on Jan 5, 2010 11:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Both have really small major league samples.
Seems like both probably came up as CF, so it would be the preference of the Rockies. Can’t imagine them not favoring the homegrown product. Time will tell which player is better. When they rest either player, the other will take over at center, so they’ll both have time there.
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I agree, but I just can't ignore it.
Gonzalez has a +15.7 UZR/150 in 1322 innings for his MLB career, while Fowler has a -20.1 UZR/150 in 1028 innings, and each has primarily played center field.
Even if you assume some regression for each of them, and it’s worth noting that Fowler posted was two runs above average for his minor league career according to TotalZone, I think that there’s pretty good reason to believe that Gonzalez is the superior defender.
Although I do agree that Colorado probably takes the route that you described.
I guess that baseball was due for another Satchel.
You can find me at beyondtheboxscore.com
by Satchel Price on Jan 5, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I can go with that. I hear the scouting reports for both are good, so I'd be willing to hedge a bet for CarGon being better.
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I think it would be wise for both to get a good amount of data in Colorado
as well as letting them develop defensively. Intuition would say that Fowler’s athleticism would do well in CF but he was somewhat rushed(you could say that Gonzalez was in Oakland, too). Just getting data.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 5, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
It's certainly not worth committing to one or the other
but based on the data that Colorado already has, I think that it’s reasonable to say that Gonzalez is more likely to be the superior defender in center field going forward.
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While I agree that Gonzalez is probably the better defender,
I don’t think that Fowler is as bad as his ‘09 UZR makes him look. From watching him play last year, he can cover a lot of ground in center. His arm is probably weaker than Gonzalez’s, but he’s very young still and looks like a bean pole. Last year he was listed at 6-4 and 185 pounds, and he will probably continue to gain strength. On the other hand, Gonzalez is every bit as fast as Dex and seems to have better baseball instincts (disclaimer: that is just a gut feeling based on watching them both play). Either way, they are both exciting players.
I definitely don't consider Fowler to be a -14 fielder
That’s never what I was arguing. Rather, I just believe that the information at hand has indicated that CarGon is superior than Fowler in center. The main question is the accuracy of the statistics already at hand, and that’s why Fowler can’t be written off as a center fielder.
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by Satchel Price on Jan 5, 2010 1:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
There are quite a few Rockies fans who agree with you
I’m one of ‘em. I think Fowler’s arm and range would play just fine in right, and I’d like to see an outfield of Smith, Gonzalez and Fowler primarily next year.
But, keeping Hawpe is a safety net in case one of those three slumps offensively.
by controlled_slide on Jan 5, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'm guessing that the Rockies see Hawpe as a safety net too
But they also have another extra outfielder that was awfully good before 2009 in Spilborghs, and he’s a substantially better defender than Hawpe as well.
I mean, the Rockies shouldn’t just give Hawpe away in order to free up at bats, he’s still an exceptionally productive bat, I just think that if the Rockies can extract value from Hawpe and go with the Smith/Gonzalez/Fowler outfield, not only would they be a slightly improved team, but they would benefit from adding additional talent to their farm system. His spot on this team has never been less clear, and realistically, it’s not completely definite that he’s really that productive as an outfielder, if he’s as bad as advanced metrics have indicated. But his bat has been so consistently productive and his home/road split is essentially nonexistent (.887 OPS at home, .864 OPS away), so teams presumably wouldn’t regard him as a product of Coors.
They do have arguably the best batch of young pitchers in the minors with Friedrich, Matzek, Chacin, Brothers and Rogers, among others, but their best position player prospects are Gomez, EYJ, Wilin Rosario and Tim Wheeler, which is awfully unimpressive, even if they already have numerous spots in the lineup filled with cheap talent.
Obviously, the biggest question is what kind of trade value does Hawpe have, and that really depends on how teams view his defense and how he’ll adjust to playing outside of Coors, even without any apparent home/road split. But now seems like a good time to try to move Hawpe, save some money, and maybe add a quality prospect, if the Rockies really want to improve their run prevention. But getting Atkins out of the lineup in favor of Stewart, as well as the plus combination of Tulowitzi and Barmes up the middle, gives them a great defense.
A lineup of Iannetta, Helton, Barmes, Stewart, Tulowitzki, Fowler, Gonzalez and Smith really doesn’t have a below average fielder in it.
Baseball and Satchels, the dynamic duo.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 5, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
The big problem is
that not too many teams that need a DH are left, so I don’t imagine that the market is nearly as strong as it would take for O’Dowd to be willing to unload him. It’s unlikely that anyone will give up impact talent for 1 year of Brad Hawpe, even at only 7.5M. The only real logical destination is in the AL West, and even that is pretty limited.
I realize that O'Dowd is probably asking for a lot
What I’m suggesting is that maybe he should settle for slightly less and acknowledge that his team might be better off without Hawpe, saving $8M, and a decent prospect or two. Although landing spots are diminishing, and it may be better to wait until the deadline, which gives Colorado more time to get comfortable with the young guys.
Baseball and Satchels, the dynamic duo.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 5, 2010 7:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Before Hawpe hit the majors...
he was a 1B. When he got close to the majors, he looked up above him and saw a huge roadblock named Todd Helton, so he switched to OF. Now, Helton has two years left on his contract and the Rockies have no in-house replacement. It’s not exactly a stupid move to keep the guy as insurance/backup 1B for this year and next, and have him replace Helton in a few years. Especially if there’s not much of a market for him.

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