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Reports: Red Sox Sign Adrian Beltre

 

Following in the footsteps of their rivals, the New York Yankees, the already rich Boston Red Sox just got richer. Unfortuately, for the rest of AL East followers this deal hardly makes a dent in Theo Epstein's purse. Multiple outlets are reporting that the Red Sox have signed Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal worth $10 million dollars with a player option for 2011 for just $5 million dollars (deal is pending a physical). Of course, the player option is just a fall back for Beltre in case his career falls apart or he suffers a major injury; a cup might help avoid that.

Playing in Safeco field put a bit of a damper on Beltre's offensive numbers, but his career wOBA is slighly above average. He's had one tremendous season (2004), a couple of good seasons(2000, 2006, 2007), and then some pretty unimpressive ones (2001, 2002, 2008). Despite the relatively average stick, Beltre's glove remains one of the games best. His career UZR/150 is near 14 and over the past two seasons he's averaged ~18. Even if you bump him down for some age related regression, he is still a premier defender at third base. Not only that, but Beltre manning the hot corner means Kevin Youkilis can move back to his post at first base, which only helps to further improve a defense in need of some upgrades.

If we take Beltre's career wOBA of .335, and assume his defense remains top notch, he would easily clear the 4 WAR mark. The Red Sox are paying him like a 2-2.5 WAR player. If by some crazy chance his HR/FB repeats it's ridiculously low 5.6%, and his wOBA remains around the .308 mark, then his defense should carry him to that 2-2.5 threshold making the deal worth the Red Sox one-year investment.

For most teams a $10 million dollar investment is hardly considered a low-risk move, but under these set of circumstances it kind of is. The Red Sox are hoping Beltre can be that 4 WAR player, however, they are not tied in to a long-term deal if not. They also have enough pieces to cover themselves should Beltre completely implode. If that happens, and he picks up the player option, then the deal doesn't look as nice, but it's hard to imagine that scenario.

We've heard many analysis mention this as a buyers market; the Red Sox just took that theory to heart. Instead of wasting 16 plus million dollars on Jason Bay, Boston turned around and signed Mike Cameron and Beltre, who combined will make nearly the same about of Bay. Instead of just getting one 3.5 WAR player, they picked up two for for the price of that one.

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Hey Royals!

That means that Mike Lowell is almost available to DH for you guys!!

by Justin Bopp on Jan 4, 2010 8:58 PM EST reply actions  

DH? Alex Gordon can DH. Lowell is a gold glover, man.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 4, 2010 9:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

+1

One of the best fielding percentages all time for 3b

by cnubsbl16 on Jan 5, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I deeply, deeply dislike the Red Sox right now.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Jan 4, 2010 9:16 PM EST reply actions  

Did you want Beltre?

I mean, as a Yankee fan I’m right there with you.,,but what is it about this Beltre deal that brings out the dislike?

I wish we could continue to just show up and play for no reason. No umpires, no scorers. Just show up and have fun.
-- Alex Rodriguez

by dorsal on Jan 4, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I was strongly pulling for Beltre to sign with the A's

and have a very strong hunch that the three and/or the four year offer Beltre received (albeit the four year offer was at the beginning of the FA period), was from the A’s.

It makes sense for Beltre to take the short term commitment to play in a more hitter-friendly (and high-media exposure) environment as well; there are obviously certain GMs who still do not understand park adjusted statistics.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Jan 5, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Not surprised that Beltre didn’t want to go to Oakland though. Bad ballpark, still in the American League, and the worst team in the division on paper. Not exactly the most appealing option..

I guess that baseball was due for another Satchel.

by Satchel Price on Jan 5, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I agree with that.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Jan 5, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

CHONE projects Beltra as a 2.5 WAR player

and since Lowell projects as a 1.5 WAR player, the Red Sox paid $10 mil for a 1 win upgrade. Well, it’s not my money.

I doubt Beltre is a 4 WAR player anymore, his offense has been declining for 3 years straight now.

On the other hand, the Sox must dump Lowell now – they have absolutely no place for him. Some team will get a slightly below average player for peanuts.

by ekogan on Jan 4, 2010 10:54 PM EST reply actions  

Don't forget the cost of wins past a certain number are exponentially more expensive.

The certain number being something the Red Sox are clearly passing every year.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 4, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Justin makes a good point on Boston's place on the win spectrum

Considering that New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay are so tightly packed at the top of that division, there’s additional incentive to pursue those extra wins. And frankly, Beltre didn’t post a WAR below 3 from 2006 to 2008, and he was playing in a home park that greatly depressed his power numbers. I’m definitely concerned about the fact that his contact rate decreased substantially while his swing rate increased, but he wasn’t completely healthy last season.

The Red Sox are making a run prevention force with a defense that includes Youkilis, Pedroia, Beltre, Cameron and Drew in premium positions, and solid defenders in Scutaro and Ellsbury (depending on who you ask) in the other two spots. Martinez is really the only guy that can definitively be said to be below average, while they have five guys that you could argue are elite defenders for their respective positions.

My respect for what that front office does continues to grow.

by Satchel Price on Jan 4, 2010 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Additional point on his power decline

His career HR/FB is 13.1%, it was 5.6% last season. Regression + Fenway should help normalize that a bit.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 5, 2010 10:15 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

He was injured for most of last season too

Bone spurs in his shoulder, then the ruptured testicle (that he played through a game with!).

by Graham MacAree on Jan 5, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Ruptured Testicle > Anal Fissures

by Justin Bopp on Jan 5, 2010 10:57 AM EST up reply actions  

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