Twins Sign Jim Thome to Bench Role; Is That The Right Decision?
by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2010 12:00 PM EST
21 comments
The Minnesota Twins signed Jim Thome to a one-year contract worth $1.5 million dollars with another $700k in possible incentives. Thome, 39, is a steal at $2.2 million dollars to an American League team in need of some power; 564 home runs worth. Despite his advanced age, Thome is still crushing the ball. His average ISO for the past three seasons is .259. Even with some age-related regression, he is still likely to post and ISO over .220 and a slugging percentage in the .475 neighborhood. Give him enough at-bats and you can pencil in a 1.5-2 WAR season for about a million dollars per win.
Unfortunately for us Thome supporters, Twins GM Bill Smith is already on record as saying "Jim Thome is a bat off the bench." This raises two questions: 1) Why? and 2) Could no other AL team use Thome's bat in the DH spot for ~$2 million dollars?
Right now the Twins plan to employ their outfielders and DH role as such: Delmon Young in left field, Denard Span in center field, Michael Cuddyer in right field and Jason Kubel as the DH. I completely understand the want and need to plan Span, Cuddyer and Kubel everyday. They are all above average hitters and therefore should be everyday players. However, are you really going to play Delmon Young and his .319 career wOBA (.312 last season) in left field over Kubel and put Thome's career .406 wOBA (.367 last season) on the bench? Especially against right-handed pitching? The dude owns a career .294/.429/.614 slash line against righties.
I am a Rays fan so I know all about the Hall Of Fame potential that Delmon Young possesses or once possessed at this point. That said, Young has racked up over 1,800 plate appearances and is still a below average hitter. Since joining the Twins organization, he has been worth -1.7 WAR. Of course, I'm not so short-sighted that I say give up on him completely, but if you acquire a 2 WAR player (on a one-year deal) at a bargain rate, it's probably best to make sure his bat is in the lineup over the guy who's worth is -$6.6 million dollars over the past two seasons.
Thome at DH means Jason Kubel would have to play left field. This is a bad thing, but so is playing Delmon Young in left field everyday. He has played over 2,100 in left field for Minnesota these past two seasons and has a UZR/150 of -18.9. Kubel defensive shortcomings are equally bad, and in over 1,800 total innings in the outfield his UZR/150 is -18.1. Either way you are likely to have a butcher in left, so why not go with the bat of the real future hall of famer (who is still the better hitter) over the one who once had hall of fame potential?
Maybe this will all playout on the field anyway. Only CHONE projects Delmon Young to be an above average hitter with a .346 wOBA. If that happens, it would be a career high for Delmon. Thome on the other hand has no wOBA projections under .350. The same CHONE system projects him at .351. By the way, a .351 wOBA would be a career low for Thome in a season which he has at least 300 PAs. One would think that if history repeats itself, Thome's bat will mash it's way into the lineup at some point of the season; hopefully for Twins fans that's sooner than later.
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There's no doubt that Young will be on a very short leash.
If he struggles through two or three weeks of abysmal performance, Gardy will surely yank him in favor of Kubel and slide Thome to the DH-spot.
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
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Ths is a bit silly
Thome will get playing time proportional to his ability to help the team given whover the starter is that day. I haven’t heard anything from the Twins suggesting some rigid commitment to him as a “bench player only.” In fact, Gardy said just the opposite.
Delmon will be used against LHP and when one of the lefties or Cuddyer needs a rest. Thome, vice versa.
Source?
In fact, Gardy said just the opposite.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jan 27, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
There was something in the minneapolis paper today...
in which gardy said that you have to get a guy like that into the lineup, and that essentially, he isn’t just a DH. You can find it on startribune.com.
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
Correction
Isn’t just a pinch hitter, not DH…. my bad
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
Are you reading into Tommy's quote from Smith differently?
I haven’t heard anything from the Twins suggesting some rigid commitment to him as a "bench player only."
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by Sky Kalkman on Jan 27, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know where link to the quote got lost between saving and posting, but nonetheless
Here is the quote from Joe Christensen’s twitter that I went off of last night
Bill Smith: “The plan is for us to play Young (LF), Span (CF), Cuddyer (RF) and Kubel (DH). … Jim Thome’s a bat off the bench.”
After that Kelsie Smith tweeted
Gardy: A guy like Jim, he’s not going to just come off the bench, he’s going to get time out there.
Obviously, I didn’t see that quote, but there seems to be some misunderstanding between GM/Manager on his role. Luckily the manager has (should have) more control over the everyday lineup and Thome will get his due.
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by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
i dont know if there really is a disconnect
i read Gardy’s comment as saying, “A guy like Jim, He’s not going to JUST come off the bench”, which is to say he may start a game as the DH every other week or so. ‘course, it could be a big embarrassing miscommunication between Smith and Gardy and we may have some good ol’ fashion drama to watch. but i think the comment is open to interpretation.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 27, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
In the end, I really don't think that it matters
Does anyone honestly believe that Young, Span, Cuddyer and Kubel will all stay healthy and productive for the entire season, completely blocking Thome? I would be surprised if Thome didn’t get at least 350-400 plate appearances, just based off the likeliness that one of those guys gets injured or struggles.
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by Satchel Price on Jan 27, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think I was just shocked that Smith came out so boldly and said this guy is coming off the bench
As mentioned it could’ve just been PR speak something else. I think Thome at 400+ PAs is a huge boost to the Twins lineup.
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by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2010 1:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I had that Gardy comment in mind
And don’t really take the Smith comment to mean “Thome won’t start.” Maybe I’m giving them too much credit, but until proven otherwise, I just refuse to believe that they don’t intend to have both Kubel and Thome in the lineup most days against RHP, health of course permitting. The offensive downgrade from either of those two to Delmon against righties is extreme. The defensive difference is minimal (bad RF play either way).
I think if Gardy’s lineups of the last couple years have shown us anything, it’s that he doesn’t mind juggling n+1 players around n positions, and that’s what I’ll expect.
Generally
When you have five guys for four positions, attrition will kind of work things out.
Nice move by Minnesota, unless it costs them a chance to sign Hudson or Lopez on the cheap.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 27, 2010 12:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions
yeah, someone's bound to get injured.
a lot of these roles are just PR stunts to smooth the signing or whatever. at the end of the day, this is a great pick up for the Twins.
It seems foolish that the ChiSox didn’t bring him back. Now it looks as though they’re going to have to sign Dye back on.
Not if you ask Ozzie Guillen
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Five guys for four positions
I don’t see how Span getting hurt would put Thome in the lineup. As of right now, the Twins’ backup CF is… Punto, I guess? They’d definitely have to make a roster move if Span couldn’t go for longer than a day or two.
If Morneau’s back flares up the cascade of events would put Thome at DH, though. (Cuddyer to first, Kubel to RF, Thome to DH)
But your point stands — it’s unlikely that Thome will get less than 300ish PAs even if the Twins don’t use him as the primary DH against righties.
Backup CF
It’s Jason Pridie, as things stand now. He’s a career AAA guy that they tried to Rule 5 from the Rays a few years ago and ultimately acquired in the Delmon Young/Matt Garza trade. He’s supposed to be pretty good defensively, at least an adequate centerfielder, but he’s not much to write home about offensively, putting up a sub-.700 OPS last year in AAA.
Your primary point stands, though – the “five guys for four positions” is actually among LF, RF, 1B, and DH – an injury at any of those spots puts Thome in the lineup. Gardenhire started Cuddyer in center for a couple games last year when Span had some dizziness issues and Gomez was in the doghouse for whatever reason, but he wouldn’t be the primary backup there, and I doubt they’d start him there long-term.
Ironically, in one of the games Cuddyer started in center, he did make a game-changing misplay – after they’d brought in Gomez as a defensive replacement and moved Cuddyer back to right field. Arguably, they’d have won that game if they hadn’t upgraded their defense, as Kubel is inferior to Cuddyer enough in right that he likely wouldn’t have tried to make the aggressive play that Cuddyer messed up (I think he dove for a ball and turned a single into a triple).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Their outfield D has the potential to be very, very bad
and with a fly ball staff, that could be particularly troublesome.
Also interesting is to see the how the new park plays
They are a dome team moving outdoors so there is a ton of difference. Surface, lighting, weather, dimensions. Definitely something to watch with the outfield defense.
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by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2010 1:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Got a point there
Cuddyer – bad
Span – average
Kubel/Young – bad
(cue someone extolling the virtues of Carlos Gomez.)
by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 27, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
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