Troy Tulowitzki vs Ryan Braun
by backtocali on Jan 30, 2010 8:03 AM EST
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The question of who is the better player between Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki has been an obsession of mine since the 2007 Rookie of the Year voting results (or snub, depending on your point of view) were reported to the world.
Non-statheads and traditionalists (and Brewer fans) would most likely choose Ryan Braun based on his counting stats total over the past 3 years (.308/.363/.574 with 103 HR and 317 RBI) and say that he is far superior to Tulowitzki's (.286/.359/.486 with 64 HR and 237 RBI) over that same stretch. As a side note, I am not including Tulowitzki's cup of coffee as a September call up in 2006 in these tallies; also of note Braun has a 15 game advantage over the past 3 seasons due to the inuries suffered by Tulowitzki durin the 2008 season.
But if you look deeper into advanced metrics for determining player value, the case can be made that Tulowitzki is the better player. According to fangraphs Braun has compiled WAR totals over the past 3 years of 3.2, 4 and 4.8 for a total of 12 while Tulo has put up 5.4, 0.9 and 5.4 for a total of 11.7. If you factor in the fact that Braun has played 15 more games and put it in terms of a WAR/game measure its Braun 0.285 and Tulo 0.287.
Baseball Prospectus thinks Tulo is better by a much bigger margin when you look at 3rd degree WARP numbers. Braun has a WARP3 factor of 15.3 and Tulowitzki 17.3.
Looking forward, Pecota and Chone both look more favorably upon Tulowitzki than Braun. While Marcels gives Braun the edge.
There is no question that Braun is the better hitter. But we're trying to look at value here and who is the better PLAYER overall. Tulowitzki has great defense at a premium position, and is now starting to hit a little better which drives up his value, while Braun has superior offense at the least valuable defensive position.
Both players have been signed to long term deals at a deep discount, thus providing tremendous surplus value in a trade. Bruan has the edge in this department by about $2 to $4 million.
Who is the better player? What are your thougts?
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Nice summary there.
Brings back the memories, for sure.
Are you saying Braun has only played 15 more games than Tulo over the past three years? That surprises me.
Braun’s move to the outfield has helped his value, which is pretty interesting.
Going forward, count me in the Tulo camp.
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Truth be told, we don't know how bad Braun would have normally been at 3B
But his rookie year was pretty bad, bad enough to convince the Brewers to move him to left. Probably the right call, but we’ll never know; he’s not too hot out there either apparently.
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He was within sniffing distance of average UZR-wise in 2008
I’ll wait to see three years of data of him in left.
Naturally, I’d take Tulo in a heartbeat, though I’m clearly biased.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 27, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed on both points, and I'm not biased.
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So
With even average UZR does it follow that Braun still doesnt measure up to the total package that Tulowitzki has to offer?
I watch almost every Brewer game, and he is a butcher out there in LF. Great speed, pretty nice arm, but just awful reads. Will be interesting to see if Carlos Gomez in CF wil help or hurt him out there this year. Cameron was no slouch.
At least
He doesn’t have the judgement of Soriano.
Or of Jim Hendry for that matter
Worst contract in baseball right now. And to think, as little as 2 years ago, he could have been considered an elite defender.
Although, if you are outside of Milwaukee you may not have heard about it, but Braun got in trouble last year with the Brewers front office for publicly calling out the GM. He was made a “deputy” in turn.
JP Riccardi and Vernon Wells just smiled somewhere...
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by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 6, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Looking at the WAR numbers
It seems clear that Tulo is the choice. His peak WAR is higher than Braun’s, and the only reason his 3-year WAR is lower is because of an injury which is not likely to recur.
By the way, this is something that has been a fun mental exercise for me over the years also, as the players are connected – at least in my mind – by the ‘07 ROY voting. In my opinion, Tulo was better in ’07, Braun in ’08, with the rubber game going to Tulo last year. It’ll be interesting to see whose career ends up better, both by the numbers and in the minds of the fans and media. Tulo looks to be getting some love now though.
by controlled_slide on Jan 27, 2010 3:04 PM EST reply actions
Tulo by a large margin
Each provides a great deal of value. But Tulo’s value is so much more difficult to replicate.
I don't think
the shape of the value has any bearing on the argument. Braun’s value is just as difficult to replicate, because he is just as far above a replacement player as Tulo. Value is value, unless you think there’s a fundamental flaw in the metric that doesn’t properly account for value of different shapes.
Braun is better, Tulo may be more valuable
There are a couple of reasons I’d take Braun but in the long run the simple fact that Tulo is a SS is where he might win the battle since the value of an elite SS is just so much higher than that of an elite LF.
1) I don’t really trust defensive metrics so I would tend to take the offensive player when the results are this close. Defense obviously does favor Tulo by quite a bit but I don’t think we are in a place where we can accurately decide just how much yet.
2) I don’t think Park Factors really work yet either. Coors tends to heavily favor line drive hitters these days. They have grown the grass out to cut down groundballs and they have used the humidor to cut down the HR some but the huge OF is still heaven for LD hitters. I think Tulo would be hurt more by a move out of Coors than the park factors suggest.
3) Also in one other minor detail Braun has a strong arm and WAR doesn’t include that in its value. It is pretty minor but when players are this close every little thing helps.
4) Tulo hasn’t shown consistency in his value yet. I still don’t know what the real Tulo is. Is his defense the guy from 2007? Is the HR/FB spike of last year for real or a fluke? I mean if he puts together his best offensive season and best defensive season he would be amazing. If he puts up his worst offensive and defensive he is average. Which is the true Troy?
by Ender on Jan 30, 2010 8:56 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
#3: WAR includes an OF arm rating as part of UZR.
Also, strong arms tend to be overrated relative to accurate arms.
#4: While I often think people overuse injuries as an excuse, Tulo’s 2008 was marred by injury issues. So going forward, I could see an argument that 2007 and 2009 are better indicators of his skills.
#2: I agree, if the discussion is about who’s the better player. If you’re talking about value, you don’t really care about specialized park factors, you only care about overall runs park factors. If Tulo takes more advantage of Coors than the typical player, that has real value to the Rockies.
http://skyking162.com/2007/10/myth-holliday-doesnt-deserve-a-coors-penalty/
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Tulo's 2008 injuries are a major point
Because they drag down his overall numbers in a big way. Obviously you don’t want to look at just one year when evaluating a player, but 2009 seemed to be a better indicator of the skills of these guys than 2008.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 30, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
As to #4
Tulo’s defense has been consistent in his 2 non-injury years. He was badly underrated this past year by UZR, which depressed his WAR by Fangraphs’ calculations, but he was still an elite fielder this last year, as well as an elite hitter. He hit badly for the first couple of months, but then tinkered with his stance and concluded the season with an OPS over 1.000 for the last 4 months. He won the Fielding Bible award at short in 2007, and was second by the slimmest of margins this year. Rob Neyer even posted a comment that if he had voted Tulo where most everyone else did, he would have won. And he acknowledged that Tulo is the best shortstop in the League when critiquing the Gold Glove awards. Defensive metrics love the guy. Analysts love the guy. He’s the real deal.
Overall, an elite-fielding, good-hitting shortstop is less replaceable and more difficult to find than a great-hitting, mediocre (at best) fielding corner outfielder. And to be honest (full disclosure, I’m a huge Rockies fan, and have a Tulo jersey hanging in my closet) I’m not so sure that Braun is that much better at hitting than Tulo. He’s closing that gap, plus he’s a better defender at a more valuable position.
by controlled_slide on Jan 30, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
What/who is mediocre at best?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 6, 2010 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
Braun's defense
I wouldnt even call it mediocre at best. He was the worst defensive LF in the game last year. You would think his quickness would help him being a LF, but his reads are so awful that even his speed cant help turn outs.
Maybe I was too nice in my evaluation of Braun
I knew he was miserable at third, but I didn’t know he was also miserable in left.
by controlled_slide on Feb 6, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
You still don't know it
the guy you’re listening to has made it a personal campaign to trash the brewers.
Ah but you're a Brewers fan so you're similarly biased
(and I’m a Rockies fan so please ignore anything I say)
Doesnt matter what your opinion is
If the numbers back up what you say then there isnt much room for bias.
Last year Braun had the worst UZR among LF in the game, and over a two year span, he isnt quite the worst, but he has a -18. His metrics are actually getting worse. Sure he has had very few errors, but you cant make an error on a ball that you dont touch, or flies 15 feet over your head because of a misread (Braun’s big problem out there).
He’s a great hitter. He’s an awful fielder.
the truth matters
You have been constant in your hatred for the brewers to the point of repeatedly joining blogs just to post about your hatred. UZR itself doesn’t represent much evidence and even for followers, less than 2 years is under the rule of thumb minimum.
He’s actually a pretty good fielder. Every outfielder in baseball likely broke the wrong way on a line drive. Cameron did several times while in milwaukee. Join the Sox blog and talk about how overrated he is.
Consistently bad
There is time for Braun to improve his fielding, but he consistently makes bad breaks and routes on balls. Sure every player makes a bad play here and there, as well as great or even spectacular plays. But Braun has not been good as an OF so far.
And as one of the main points of this article states, a great fielding SS with a decent bat, has more value than an awful fielding LF with a great bat. The only way Braun increases his value is by improving his fielding (and even then, as a LF it doesnt improve by much with a bump in fielding efficiency) or a move to CF, where his defense would be even worse.
You're confabulating
He isn’t bad because you have some problem with the brewers. Saying he consistently makes bad breaks and takes bad routes is silly.
For what it's worth...
Fangraphs readers project Braun at 5.1 WAR and Tulo at 6.0 WAR for 2010.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=3410
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=3531
CHONE has Braun at 1.5, 2.0, and 6.2 WAR and Tulo at 5.6, 1.0, and 6.8 WAR, 2007 through 2009. Projected for 2010, Braun’s at 4.7 WAR, Tulo’s at 6.4 WAR.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/b/braur002.htm
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/t/tulot001.htm
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Don't forget where they play
because Tulowitski has posted very good SS numbers in a very good hitter’s park (Humidor notwithstanding), while Braun has posted elite numbers in a pretty terrible hitter’s park (akin to Adrian Gonzalez in SD). I think that difference counts when comparing overall value. By my count, here are their team-neutral hitting stats so far:
Tulowitski: .271/.346/.450 with 62 HR
Braun: .314/.366/.577 with 100 HR
Tulow is an extremely elite fielder, maybe the best in the game right now, but in my mind the park differential might make the difference for me.
Side note: Braun has actually stolen more bases that Tulowitski has so far! :)
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Since when is Miller Park a terrible hitting park?
It’s played pretty close to average every year.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
WAR is park-adjusted
And WAR says Tulo>Braun because Tulo D>>>>>>Braun D and Braun Off>>Tulo Off
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 31, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I'd say Tulo, easy.
I like Braun a lot, but Tulowitzki’s defense totally changes things. Braun is absolutely the better hitter, but it’s worth noting that Tulo made some huge adjustments in 2009, Braun’s BABIP was awfully high at .355, and Tulowitzki’s walk rate was 3.5% higher than Braun’s last season.
They’re both great hitters, and while Braun is better, the difference in value between a plus defensive shortstop and a below average defensive left fielder just seems to outweigh what Braun brings to the table offensively. Yeah, Braun’s 153 wRC+ easily beats Tulo’s 135 mark, but if you’re factoring in defensive value, I don’t see how you could choose Braun unless you believe that Tulo is due for some huge offensive regression.
I personally think that Tulo is much closer to the player that he was in 2009 and not 2008.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
When considering who will have a better career
is it fair at this point to predict a sharp decline in Tulo’s defense at say age 30 compared to Braun’s given the positions they play?
One confounding variable that I don't think people have ever considered
I heard this a couple years ago in a similar debate(over who was better between Tulo and Hanley) and someone claimed that the grass is grown higher in Coors to counteract some of the spacious outfield and fly balls and whatnot. I’m not sure how much evidence there is to this claim, but he brought up Kaz Matsui’s UZR as an example. Every year before he played for the Rockies and after, his UZR was poor, but when he played for the Rockies it was good to great. I really can’t tell if there’s any validity to this claim but it’s something to think about,especially since the middle infielders for the Rockies the past few years have had great UZR for certain instances. It could just be data fluctuation.
I may be wrong, but simple UZR park factors should pick this up.
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Tulowitzki actually has better defensive numbers on the road
"Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher in baseball. He's always pitching when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Tim McCarver
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Feb 3, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball reference uses Rtot to measure defense
and it also breaks down each player’s home/road Rtot. While I realize Rtot is a poor man’s UZR, it should still be able to tell us if Tulo was getting a major boost to his fielding stats by playing in Coors. The numbers for his career show that he has actually been worth more runs on the road.
"Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher in baseball. He's always pitching when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Tim McCarver
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Feb 4, 2010 2:30 AM EST up reply actions
Ah, cool, didn't know they did that. Thanks.
RTot is SeanSmith’s TotalZone, by the way.
Players tend to hit better at home, all else being equal. I wonder if that holds true for fielding? I’d guess so, but I wonder to what extent?
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I would imagine
That it wouldn’t matter much for infielders, as all infields are the same (with Astroturf stadiums being the notable exception), while outfields can vary wildly. I don’t know if this is remotely true, but I would venture to guess that outfielders play better at home, while infielders are roughly constant across the board.
I could be wrong though; maybe infield grooming can be so different from stadium to stadium that it radically changes how the ball bounces (which affects the path of the ball more, while outfielders simply field fly balls that aren’t affected by field grooming) so infielders who know their own field well do better at home.
by controlled_slide on Feb 4, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'd agree that outfield differences probably matter more than infield differences, but it'd be an interesting thing to study.
But there’s also the generic home field advantage possibility (probability?) Hitters might hit better at home because they’re used to the stadium shape/wind/etc. But I think it’s quite likely they hit better at home because of some sort of familiarity factor (own bed, own clubhouse, no travel, etc.) Those things would also affect a player in the field.
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Tulo himself disagrees with you
Infields vary quite a bit. Species, length and watering schedule all affect the way they play.
Tulo's UZR has been below average the last two years, which doesn't jive with every other defensive metric
I’ve seen Barmes and Tulo play quite a lot. I can assure you they are not getting any unfair advantage in their UZR scores. They are the best fielding middle infield duo in franchise history
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 31, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Let's see
Tulo’s at 21.8 park adjusted batting runs over his career per FanGraphs in 1839 plate appearances. That’s 8.3 runs above average per 700 plate appearances. Brauns at 112.6 batting runs in 1863 plate appearances. That’s 42.3 per 700, making him 34 runs better offensively. The positional adjustment for SS is +7.5 runs and for LF it’s -7.5 runs, so before defense, Braun’s up 19 runs on Tulo per 700 plate appearances.
UZR/150 has Braun at -8.9 runs in left over his career, and Tulo at +3.0, which is a difference of +12 for Tulo. Instinctively, Tulo is probably a bit better than that, but so is Ryan Braun. CHONE projects Braun to be -4.0 and Tulo to be +13, so that’s plus 17. The fans project -8.5 for Braun and +4.4 for Tulo, so that’s +13 as well. Steve Sommer projects +3.6 for Tulo and -3.5 for Braun, so that’s a difference of +7.
If you average out the defensive projections, Tulo comes in at +12, making Braun +7 runs better overall. That doesn’t include the fact that Braun is probably less of an injury risk than Tulo.
There is also the matter of regressing offense. Braun’s had a .340 BABIP despite a pedestrian line drive rate. He’s probably gotten a bit lucky in that regard. Tulo’s had a .319 BABIP and a 19.7 LD rate, so that seems about right. Both of them pop it up around 12% of the time.
CHONE projects Braun only to be 14 runs better than Tulo on offense, which is far less than the positional+defense advantage that Tulo has. I’d say the advantage goes to Tulo, but really not by much.
It would look really awesome if he could improve his baserunning
"Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher in baseball. He's always pitching when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Tim McCarver
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Feb 5, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I would say that almost tripling his career SB total just from last year was a good start
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 11, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
He has a little work to do before
he can really be considered the ever enviable “5 tool” player like Ben Zobrist was in 2009. The tool analyzer they made at THT does him justice.
by Leviticus6688 on Feb 5, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
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