Runs Just Aren't An Underrated Stat
by Satchel Price on Jan 26, 2010 10:55 AM EST
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PrintYesterday, as part of ESPN's Hot Stove U series, which focuses on 30 "need-to-know" topics for the 2010 baseball season, Jim Caple wrote an article around the thesis that runs scored is the most underrated statistic in baseball. While Caple is a good writer and story teller, I just have a hard time taking this one too seriously.
He goes into some detail about how the main goal of baseball is to score runs, and therefore runs scored should be the most important statistic. But the main statistic that he compares runs to is RBIs, which is silly in its own right, and he fails to really acknowledge any of the other factors that go into scoring runs, such as placement in the batting order, the quality of the surrounding hitters in the lineup, and good old fashioned luck.
He seems to attempt to boil the value of players down to a single statistic, and the idea that the run is the best individual number to gauge a player's value just isn't realistic at this point given how context driven the number is, and the fact that it completely ignores defensive value, base running value (kind of), and positional adjustments.
Now personally, I believe that FanGraphs WAR is currently the best single statistic out there to judge a player's value, if that's what we're talking about. Runs aren't the worst statistic, but it just seems lazy to shrug your shoulders and say, "Hey, this is the best statistic I got."
Of the 20 players who scored the most runs in 2009, only 9 were among the top 20 in WAR: Pujols, Pedroia, Figgins, Utley, Zimmerman, Jeter, Fielder, H. Ramirez, and Tulowitzki.
Of those same top 20 runs scored leaders, every single one batted in the top three spots in the batting order and/or batted in one of the ten best offenses in baseball. Players who didn't have the benefit of batting in an elite offense but were elite players that are very underrated by runs scored, such as Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Derrek Lee, weren't even among the top 30 in runs scored.
Can we just stop trying to convince people that depending on counting stats like runs, wins, hits and RBI's is remotely productive to gauge a player's value, and move on to answering more important questions?
Author's Note: ESPN reached out to me to point out today's Hot Stove U article, a piece by Dave Cameron and Matt Klaasen of FanGraphs supporting FanGraphs WAR as the best bottom-line statistic available. This is certainly the piece that I was expecting to see from ESPN, and I appreciate the hat tip. But while I agree that ESPN should be supporting multiple angles of looking at every sport, it still disappoints me that angles like the one in the Caple piece are being argued.
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I read the first part of this article yesterday (I’m not an Insider, so thankfully I was spared from reading the rest of it) and was livid at the absurdity of his argument. At least he doesn’t stoop to making fun of the names of advanced statistics.
Agreed completely.
If someone is on a second and the guy up to bat hits a line drive to the outfield, he’s going to score on Johnny Damon 99 times out of 100, whereas the same ball hit to Ichiro, he’d be wise to stop at 3rd 99 times out of 100. Granted, this is a very rough example, but it’s one account of tons that apply to the fact that runs scored is the product of so many things including defense, the opposing pitcher’s ability, your own team’s ability, park size, baserunning ability, where a player bats in the lineup, speed, and at least a dozen other variables.
Funny, I thought everyone agreed ten years ago that quantitative stats like runs and RBI were pretty much useless.
I was pretty surprised
to see ESPN run that after having Sky and Justin get stuff posted there, as well as some of the guys from FanGraphs. I guess they have to give both angles..
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 26, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty peeved ESPN found it fit to include in their
six-week course devoted to higher learning
.
Jimmy Rollins had an OBP of .296 last year. Clint Barmes was at .294. Jimmy Rollins was 10th in runs. Barmes was 55th. The Rockies have pandered about how to improve their 2B position. Obviously the answer is to just bat Barmes leadoff, regardless of OBP. More RUNS
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 26, 2010 11:30 AM EST reply actions
Runs are underrated when compared against RBI
They are EQUALLY useful in that neither one is particularly useful.
I don't have an Insider account, but
reading what little information that was freely availabe was enough to blind my left eye in frustration. I think you found the best word for this conundrum: “lazy.”
on Twitter @CubsStats23
So which one is more useful? RBI's or run's?
I don’t mean in a, “which one would you look up to find out more about a player way”, I mean in a “if you were stranded on a desert island with either RBI’s or Runs, which one would you pick” kind of way.
I guess the way to do it would be to run a regression on WAR and RBIs, and one on WAR and runs. But that seems like a lot of work for something that is completely useless and probably only interesting to me.
by Steven Ellingson on Jan 26, 2010 1:39 PM EST reply actions
no, it's interesting...
but why even try and decide? you’re never going to find yourself on that desert island w/o one or the other.
Jon Scher, senior editor for ESPN Insider,
told me that the idea of Hot Stove U was to foster view points, something that I obviously have no qualms with. I actually like the series a lot, and the mission of improving the collective knowledge of the baseball fan base is a productive one.
My problem is that ESPN has so much credibility, and when articles like the Caple one are posted, it gives credibility to the concepts argued in the articles. And I just didn’t remotely buy Caple’s argument. I was actually quite happy to see the follow-up arguing in favor of FanGraphs WAR.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
If the catchline was "series to foster an open discussion from several viewpoints," fine
but an ESPN article devoted to “higher learning” suggests to the reader that this is something of great research and depth
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 26, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I also feel Caple's argument has been made a million times before
From the gist of his article (since I’m not an insider), nothing he could possibly point out would seem like a ground breaking idea. At least WAR is still obscure enough to educate at least a few people on the subject.
Very similar to what I was thinking
I just don’t see how Caple’s piece really does much to push forward the collective intelligence of the baseball world.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 26, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
ESPN article on Runs
If you guys read articles on stats at ESPN, I must be in the wrong place – unless the point is this is the sort of thing that the masses look at. OK, I see there is a lot of ignorance going around in baseball.
It seems to be the same thing with politics and business these days, too. I keep thinking we’ve progressed, but we keep having to slide back. However, if you look far enough back, you can see we have come a long ways.
Absolutely.
But it just begs the question: why give the opposition opportunities to slow the progression by putting up articles like the Caple one? We’ve certainly come a long way, but the Caple article says otherwise, to an extent.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 26, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
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