DiamondView 2.010: Arizona Diamondbacks
Our trek through the NL West continues.
Last week, we started in the cold Rocky Mountains of Colorado and traveled west to the bay of San Francisco. Today, we'll make our way back through the desert of Arizona and try to make sense of this team. Disappointed with a NFL playoff loss, no doubt, Phoenix now looks to the Diamondbacks for inspiration. How will they hold up?
This week, we have Jim McLennan of the AZ SnakePit to help us answer that. His comments on each projected player follow the DiamondView.
1B - Adam Laroche
OBP: .330 | ISO: .200 | SPEED: 2.9 | DEF: -13.20
Perhaps the most important acquisition of the off-season for Arizona, since 1B was a major black-hole last year. LaRoche should provide much better output, and also improve the defense, while giving Brandon Allen more time to develop in Triple-A.
2B - Kelly Johnson
OBP: .351 | ISO: .170 | SPEED: 6.1 | DEF: +7.95
Like LaRoche, another ex-Brave, this arrival was something of a surprise, with the team having decent alternatives, in Tony Abreu and Ryan Roberts. Arizona will be looking for Johnson to return to the form he showed in 2007-08, after a disappointing 2009 which resulted in him being non-tendered by Atlanta.
SS - Stephen Drew
OBP: .328 | ISO: .160 | SPEED: 6.1 | DEF: +7.81
Once mooted as a #1 draft pick, Drew has only sporadically shown that quality of play. After a strong finish to 2008, great things were hoped for, but Drew dropped back to being an average shortstop offensively, though his defense did improve.
3B - Mark Reynolds
OBP: .345 | ISO: .238 | SPEED: 5.2 | DEF: -2.40
Mark turned into one of the league's top sluggers, delivering some majestic blasts. Admittedly, this came along with another single-season strikeout record, and it seems reasonable to expect him to continue to live up to his nickname of 'Special K' - because his at-bats are either special, or they're K's.
C - Miguel Montero
OBP: .342 | ISO: .180 | SPEED: 3.2 | DEF: 4.50
Montero took over as the everyday catcher in 2009, as the result of his sterling offense after Chris Snyder went onto the DL. He became one of the best-hitting catchers in the league, though his defense is still very much a work in progress.
LF - Conor Jackson
OBP: .358 | ISO: .149 | SPEED: 5.0 | DEF: -8.38
Jackson missed almost all of 2009, coming down with valley fever, a chronic, fungal lung disease that ended up turning into pneumonia. His recovery to full health is a crucial part of Arizona's 2009 chances: early returns from his stint in the Dominican Winter League were promising.
CF - Gerardo Parra (should be Chris Young)
OBP: .338 | ISO: .118 | SPEED: 5.4 | DEF: -4.81
Young's struggles continued last year, culminating in a demotion to Triple-A. He was notably better after returning, but Arizona fans won't believe that until they see it sustained for more than a few weeks. Otherwise, Gerardo Parra may end up taking over from Young before the end of the season.*
Editor: Young didn't make the cut for this projection; Parra's projection is shown. - justin
RF - Justin Upton
OBP: .372 | ISO: .219 | SPEED: 5.8 | DEF: -4.27
Arizona's 21-year old All-Star returns, and nothing less than another All-Star caliber season is anticipated. If he could cut down on his MLB outfield-leading dozen errors, that'd be nice, but as long as he hits .300 with approaching thirty home-runs, we'll cope with the occasional bobble.
Arizona Diamondbacks - Team Composite

If you're keeping score at home, this starting projection (even with Chris Young not making the cut) looks to be significantly better than San Francisco's, but just a snakeskin behind Colorado's and in fact looks similar to the Dodger's (still forthcoming). - justin
Please give a big thanks to Jim of AZ Snakepit, who has a great interview about rating manager effectiveness with Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times up at the site. Check it out.
Up next: San Diego Padres
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Comments
If Webb is healthy, Arizona could surprise some people.
They have a well rounded lineup with star bats in Upton and Reynolds, and potentially very good regulars in Drew, Montero, Johnson, LaRoche and Young. The lineup could fall flat some like it did last season outside of Upton, Reynolds and Montero, but it could be pretty good.
And a rotation of Haren, a healthy Webb, Jackson, Kennedy, and Buckner could be pretty good as well.
That division is going to be very interesting next season.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 26, 2010 9:58 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Complete agreement, Satch.
See Data Differently.
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by Justin Bopp on Jan 26, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
i don't see the surprise
in a team loaded with young talent and a top three of webb, haren and jackson. arizona is expected to compete, and another disappointing season would be the bigger surprise, i think.
like a tornado hitting a jelly bean factory on Halloween.
Kelly Johnson got non-tendered.
Still amazing to me. Entirely too talented to let go IMO.
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that projection just seems to be absurdly bullish
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 27, 2010 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Very interesting stuff
Can you tell me what number roughly equates to replacement level?
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
Not exactly, but it could be determined.
The part you want to watch for is the grey diamond behind the player’s projection, which represents the positional average, which is figured from the included number of players at that position for the 794 players in the study—basically every starter, his backup, and his backup’s backup.
For this purpose, it serves as what one should expect at said position.
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The problem here is that there aren't really replacement levels for individual metrics.
You could use “typical” numbers for a player who is replacement level overall, I suppose.
You’ll also have the problem that a replacement level shortstop will have a different skillset than a replacement level first baseman.
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ie,
You have a problem in center, but are at or somewhat above the league average in almost every position—with the caveat that league average is not good.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
That's quite a bullish looking square on KJ
I’m also surprised Conor Jackson is above OF average in the Power department, when he has one home run in his last 300 ABs. That’s not an exaggeration or estimate either. 300 ABs
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 26, 2010 3:04 PM EST reply actions
It's not compared to OF
It’s his ISO compared to all players in the study.
As a Giants fan, I’m very much not excited for 2010. We’re going into the season outclassed with a drunk at the wheel. I can’t wait to see what prospects we trade for mediocre vets.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
His diamond exceeds the grey league average OF quadrilateral
Not by much, but it is greater than position average
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 26, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Why not just add in Chris Young’s projection. Can’t be that hard to add in a single player, no?
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And Chris Synder's
I think he’s starting caliber and wouldn’t be surprised if the platoon is re-implemented if Snyder isn’t traded.
Competition Justin?
I love Kevin's work.
But that’s not really competition, is it?
Unless you consider the idea of combining the five tools into a visual description, using sabermetric stats to do so, and running the data through a percentile ranking similar at all to what the DiamondView represents…oh, damn.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/9/16/1032763/introducing-diamondview-composite
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/1/16/1253520/introducing-diamondview-2-010#storyjump
Did he mention anywhere the justification for each stat to represent each tool, the shape determinant, the need for creating such a view, the limitations of the method, or the set of data used? Are these based on career stats or a single year or a projected combination?
Though flawed, it looks neat. Overall, it’s a pretty raw first draft with little narrative telling us why this is needed (or better than the current method developed my yours truly). It will be cool to see some revisions and I can’t wait to see how it will be used as an application.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
He wasn't too descriptive on the stats and probably has to change 2 or 3.
But it will need a lot of changing in order to catch up to your’s. And it would probably end up with a lot of your features like numbers and average for the position.
by RZ on Jan 26, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

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