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DiamondView 2.010: San Francisco Giants

If the DiamondView series was a generic Japanese Role-Playing Game from the early 90s, we've heard the sob story from the village chief, discovered that we're the only person that can save the town, and have just left to discover the dangers in the evil woods. Our journey has just begun, so lets not waste more time with sadly revealing analogies and stick to the schedule.

The start of the DiamondView 2.010 journey began in the NL West with the Colorado Rockies and had a fantastic reception. We'll continue down that path, and barring any blue slimes drawing near, we'll focus today's efforts on the San Francisco Giants. To help us with this, Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles is here to lend some commentary on the lineup.

 

CF - Aaron Rowand

Batter-diamondview-cf-rowand_medium

OBP: .324 | ISO: .146 | SPEED: 3.1 | DEF: -4.26

Aaron Rowand, leadoff hitter. Yep. In an alternate universe, John Wilkes Booth killed President Lincoln with a slider, which consequently led to the pitch being outlawed. In this alternate universe, Aaron Rowand is a demigod. In this universe, he can't hit a slider. Useful player, but he wasn't worth the money the Giants threw at him.

Star-divide

2B - Freddy Sanchez

Batter-diamondview-2b-sanchez_medium

OBP: .323 | ISO: .115 | SPEED: 4.0 | DEF: -1.07

A good portion of his value comes from his defense, but that shouldn't be affected by something minor like a torn meniscus in his knee, right? Right? Useful player, but he probably isn't worth the money the Giants threw at him.

 

3B - Pablo Sandoval

Batter-diamondview-3b-sandoval_medium

OBP: .366 | ISO: .194 | SPEED: 4.4 | DEF: -3.28

His hitting ability is preternatural. It's amazing how often he consistently makes solid contact. He started last season swinging at the scuffed balls that umpires tossed out of play, but he ended the season as the team leader in walks. He's like a thinner Tony Gwynn with more power potential.

 

1B - Aubrey Huff

Batter-diamondview-1b-huff_medium

OBP: .327 | ISO: .175 | SPEED: 3.4 | DEF: -15.73

Aubrey Huff, cleanup hitter. Yep. The worst part is that he's an improvement over last year's cleanup hitter. If Freddy Sanchez is an indictment of a front office that pays too much attention to batting average, Huff is evidence that there is still someone employed in a front office who pays attention to RBI. Here's hoping his low BABIP last year was a fluke.

 

LF - Mark DeRosa

Batter-diamondview-of-derosa_medium

OBP: .343 | ISO: .153 | SPEED: 4.3 | DEF: +2.76

The "If they have the year they had two years ago, we'll be golden!" method of building a roster might be completely illogical, but it's worth nothing that the Giants haven't finished dead last in runs scored since they started employing it. Sure, they've finished 15th out of 16th teams a couple of times, but never dead last. Useful player, but he probably isn't worth the money the Giants threw at him.

 

RF - Nate Schierholtz

Batter-diamondview-of-schierholtz_medium

OBP: .325 | ISO: .171 | SPEED: 5.9 | DEF: -5.86

Twice last year, Schierholtz swung at pitches that hit him. Twice. The projection systems like him well enough, his minor league numbers were solid, and his arm in right is fantastic, so it's not a terrible choice to give him a full-time gig. Until he can control the strike zone, he's destined for a career as a nice fourth outfielder.

 

SS - Edgar Renteria

Batter-diamondview-ss-renteria_medium

OBP: .330 | ISO: .110 | SPEED: 4.5 | DEF: +4.0


He swings as if he's trapped in a bowl of invisible oatmeal, and he catches everything hit within a foot of him. That's a potent combo. The Giants are convinced that he'll rebound this year because he was hurt last year. If there's anything worth gambling on, it's that a 33-year-old with a history of injuries that affect his production will stop having those injuries and improve his production when he's 34. It's just science, people. Useful player at the end of the bench, but he wasn't worth the money the Giants threw at him.

 

C - Rod Barajas vs. Buster Posey

Batter-diamondview-c-barajas_medium

OBP: .285 | ISO: .156 | SPEED: 2.7 | DEF: +19.89

Batter-diamondview-c-posey_medium

OBP: .341 | ISO: .137 | SPEED: 4.3 | DEF: +11.30


Well, as of now, Buster Posey is first on the depth chart. But Bruce Bochy is an old backup catcher, and he'd rather put a scorpion down his pants than start a catcher with fewer than 200 professional games caught. The fear is that Posey will continually call for his pitchers to throw gyroballs and eephus pitches with the game on the line. The Giants haven't signed Barajas yet, but they'll sign someone comparable before the season starts.

 

San Francisco Team Composite

Batter-diamondview-team-sfg_medium

All of the above players are worthy of being on a major league roster. That is actually an improvement over the last two Opening Day rosters. The pitching should still be good, but it isn't likely to be as otherworldly as it was last year, if only because of regression to the mean. I don't really know what that means, but I was told it would play well on a statistically oriented site. It all adds up to a team that has a chance to get back to the 88-win marker, but they'll need some luck to do so.

 

There you have it, straight from the man behind McCovey Chronicles himself: all of these players are major leaguers! The recurring theme is "useful players, not worth the money." The cold truth is that San Fran isn't so far from every other struggling team: they can't get on base, they can't get off base, and they can't get anywhere when they're in between. For comparison purposes, their team average looks nearly identical to the San Diego Padres.

Thanks again for the contributions by Grant. If you get a chance, check out his thoughts on Bengie Molina, who was acquired after the content for this article was produced. A quick glance says he has a (13 | 73 | 01 | 90) DiamondView, which is remarkably like Barajas' projection. Interesting, huh? - Justin

 

Up Next: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Is Edgar Renteria that good on defense?

"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 21, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions  

Not if you ask UZR

Both metrics have him as slightly below average to average, TotalZone has him at two runs below average in the past four seasons and UZR has him at 4.4 runs below average during the same time period.

I’m not quite sure how Renteria’s +4.0 DiamondView projection was made considering that CHONE projects him to be -5 next season, I’m guessing it’s based off some position adjustment though.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jan 21, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Correct.

The position adjustment for SS is considerable. Either way, the projection shows him as an average SS defensively. and that includes most shortstops on a 40-man roster in the league. Read: average is not good.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 21, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

In other words...

Yes, if you’re thinking about all defenders from all positions.

But, no, not “that good” if you’re thinking only about shortstops.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 21, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Is Sandoval really thinner than Gwynn?

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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 21, 2010 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

Nope.

Sandoval weighed in at 245 for last season, while Gwynn comes in at 199 according to Baseball Reference. Although Gwynn’s listed weight is presumably from his prime, rather than his final years.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jan 21, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought so..

It wouldn’t be nearly as fun to watch Panda if he weighed 180 lbs, too.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jan 21, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow, so negative, Grant.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 21, 2010 1:42 PM EST reply actions  

Also, I can’t believe Posey has a 94 defensive rating when he’s the worst defensive catcher in the history of the game!

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 21, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

That 94 defensive rating is wrong. He hasn’t played in 200 professional games yet, so it’s actually N/A

by Mrbasepaul on Jan 21, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

According to FanGraphs

CHONE projects Posey at one run below average for next season.

This is where I have a serious question about the positional adjustments that have been applied to the TotalZone projections: Is it possible for a catcher to have a truly poor DiamondView mark in fielding after adjusting for position? I’d love to see what someone like Adam Moore, who CHONE projects at 14 runs below average for next season, posts in his DiamondView.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jan 21, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Posey – it’s become a bit of a meme (encouraged by the local media and the Giants themselves) that Posey isn’t ready defensively!!! and the Giants pitchers will all suddenly become bad if he’s allowed to catch them the whole season.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 21, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Satch -

I think that just looking at the positional average for catchers (in grey) is pretty telling. I’d consider removing the adjustment all together, but there’s a considerable number of people wanting that.

Similar to park-adjusted data, if it was people would say “that’s not their true look” and others would say “that’s not how he’ll truly perform.”

At some point we have to pick a direction and stick with it, caveats included.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 21, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Specifically, the comments for DeRosa and Schierholtz

DeRosa certainly isn’t a star or anything, but he’s an above average defender in left field and a pretty solid bat. Unless he gets hurt, I don’t see why DeRosa can’t be worth the $6M that he’ll be paid for 2010.

As for Schierholtz, as Grant noted, he’s an above average defender, he’s got a great minor league track record, he’s apparently a plus baserunner, and he’s hitting his peak, so realistically, I think that Schierholtz has a decent chance at having a pretty solid season for San Francisco. Obviously though, as Grant noted, a good deal of that depends on whether Schierholtz can become more patient and selective in his offensive approach.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jan 21, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I was actually kidding – there’s a discussion going on over on MCC about Giants fans being too negative about everything at the moment.

I think the DeRosa thing was just an excuse to use the “Good player but probably not worth the money” throughout the article. As for Schierholtz, I see what the projection systems say and I watch him play (well, hit, the dude can play defense) and I’m skeptical (whoa there!) But I do hope he gets a lot of PT this season so we can find out for sure.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 21, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

that and

the difference between DeRosa a LOLFred (that would be Fred Lewis) is probably not worth 6 million

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Jan 21, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, he's about to turn 35

It’s not exactly unheard of for players in their mid-30s to suddenly fall off a cliff. Especially when they’re already coming off something of a down year.

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by jcb9 on Jan 21, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

The Lewis point is probably the most damning

in terms of criticizing the DeRosa signing. If Lewis’ contact rate regresses to a more normal level given the adjustments he made in his in-zone swing percentage and his increased willingness to swing at the first pitch, then DeRosa probably isn’t worth much more than a few runs over Lewis.

But I still think that it’s a better signing that adding Huff to block Ishikawa.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jan 21, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

DeRosa is probably the offseason signing that I find to be the most defensible, especially since realistically we’re not talking DeRosa vs Lewis but DeRosa vs Eugenio Velez. But I could also see it going horribly wrong pretty easily.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 21, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah but:

realistically we’re not talking DeRosa vs Lewis but DeRosa vs Eugenio Velez

is a pretty bad reflection of the FO in its own right. Two wrongs don’t make a right…

by Missing Barry on Jan 21, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Two wrongs don’t make a right…

I mean, at some point, a certain number of wrongs must make a right. The Giants are just trying to figure out how many it is.

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Jan 21, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s the equivalent of dividing by zero

Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard

by SoFa King Mike on Jan 21, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly

Vroooom should never have been in the conversation to begin with. And if it’s not Lewis than it’s Bowker – and nobody really knows what his ceiling might be.

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Jan 21, 2010 6:11 PM EST up reply actions  

But I still think that it’s a better signing that adding Huff to block Ishikawa.

Which was a better move than Renteria, because it costs less, which was a better move than Rowand, because it costs less, which was a better move than Zito, because it costs less. Sigh, life of a Giants fan. At least it was better than Huff!

by Missing Barry on Jan 21, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

But I still think that it’s a better signing that adding Huff to block Ishikawa.

Yes in that DeRosa is better than Huff, no in that Ishikawa is probably the worst of the three people being blocked (Ish, Bowker, Lewis)

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Jan 21, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

All of what you mentioned makes sense, which is why the Giants are going to sign another outfielder and have Nate be the fourth outfielder

by Mrbasepaul on Jan 21, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I think most of us aren’t too optimistic on Schierholtz’s minor league numbers translating well. He has this annoying habit (that every LHH to ever come up with the Giants happens to have) of swinging at every down and in breaking pitch, and not hitting any of them (see: the two pitches that hit him). MLB pitchers exploit that…

by Missing Barry on Jan 21, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I would hope with more consistent playing time

that he would eventually adjust

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Jan 21, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Unless he gets hurt

As a Giants fan, I have a lot of experience watching old guys play baseball. They get hurt. Often.

by Missing Barry on Jan 22, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I like how Schierholtz is slightly above average in every category. How often does that happen?

by quincy0191 on Jan 21, 2010 1:49 PM EST reply actions  

Girth? check! Length? Check! Staying Power? Check! Recovery? Check!

"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.

by Goofus on Jan 21, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

LOLgiants.

/cries, then turns on DVR of Sanchez No-Hitter on my birthday last year.

"It appears that Sabean is playing a game of chicken with Neukom wherein he elucidates the most outrageous things he could do as ML GM without getting fired." - cornball

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by scout6 on Jan 21, 2010 2:51 PM EST reply actions  

Can someone explain the black diamond to me please?

Also…

The Giants haven’t signed Barajas yet, but they’ll sign someone comparable before the season starts

Sigh. So predictably bad. It’s funny how predictable it is, but it would have been funny to have a blurb on Bengie, too….

by Missing Barry on Jan 21, 2010 3:37 PM EST reply actions  

Justin, you've done two DiamondView Projections so far

and Purple Row and MCC have invaded BtB with a fury. Good to see, hopefully every one of these goes as well as this has turned out so far, but somehow I doubt my team will come out with as much force. (sigh).

by SFiercex4 on Jan 21, 2010 4:29 PM EST reply actions  

I resent that

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by Andrew Martin on Jan 21, 2010 8:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Dinger’s DiamondView looks kinda like Rod Barajas’. It’s far below average in attractiveness and entertainment value, but off the charts in obnoxiousness and classlessness.

Yo yo yo... I'ma letchoo finish, but Bochy and Sabean build the greatest lineups of all time. All time!

by WhereThere'sAWillieThere'sAMays on Jan 22, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Aaron Rowand’s graph is missing a ‘GRIT’ sector. I demand that you fix it.

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by xanthan on Jan 21, 2010 4:53 PM EST reply actions  

Can’t be measured with STATZ. You just have to trust Brian Sabean that it’s off the charts.

Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Jan 21, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I like the pretty colors

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by bondslegend on Jan 21, 2010 5:32 PM EST reply actions  

Aubrey Huff really is quite average, isn’t he?

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by Natto on Jan 21, 2010 6:07 PM EST reply actions  

btw

I think the DiamondView is a pretty cool idea. Well done BTB!

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Jan 21, 2010 6:14 PM EST reply actions  

More like

well done Justin Bopp, with help from others.

If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jan 21, 2010 6:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I could be wrong

but do these graphs seem to infer that the Giants offense in 2009 sucked?

Interesting thesis.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 21, 2010 9:14 PM EST reply actions  

None of Posey, Huff, Sanchez, DeRosa, or Schierholtz got any appreciable playing time last year.

You’re looking at Molina, Ishikawa, Velez/Lewis, and Winn as 2009 hitters.

Thus the sucking.

The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga

Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz

The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6

by dregarx on Jan 22, 2010 1:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I think I see a trend here......

still, the NL wests’ young cores are abosalutely ridiculas , Lincecum / Sandavol / Kemp / Either / Kreshaw / Jimenez / Tulo / Upton etc etc.

by RollingWave on Jan 22, 2010 1:01 AM EST reply actions  

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