DiamondView 2.010: Colorado Rockies
If you saw the introduction posted yesterday, you know we've taken the DiamondView Composite Player Evaluation method and improved it to reflect the best suggestions while retaining its appeal as a quickly absorbed method for judging positional talent. If you didn't, now would be the time to familiarize yourself with the changes. The DiamondView method uses CHONE projections to show what each player should look like in 2010 compared to his peers around the league.
In addition to the improvements, I am proud to announce that the DiamondView series will be featuring writers from around SBN's many excellent team pages (where available). Each will be doing his or her part to describe what the DiamondView is showing us and hopefully imparting some deeper perspective. With that in mind, we will make our way through the Major League by focusing on one division at a time, starting with the National League West. Because the last post of the 2009 series was the LA Dodgers, we will come back to them after reviewing the other teams in the division first.
Today, we start with the Colorado Rockies, which finished in 2nd place in 2009 with 92 wins, as they look to continue that success with a strong lineup for 2010. Our guest writer for this edition is Russ Oates of Purple Row, and his thoughts follow each image.
1B - Todd Helton

OBP: 387 | ISO: .146 | SPEED: +2.6 | DEF+: -7.19
Helton rebounded in 2009 from 2008 season marred by a back injury. Having received more days off in 2009 to protect him from reaggravating his back, 2010 will see the same. Helton should still be good for a high OBP and a home run total in the mid-teens.
2B - Clint Barmes

OBP: .301 | ISO: .160 | SPEED: +5.6 | DEF+: +10.76
Barmes is free-swinger, but with good defense and the power to hit 20+ homers he should be a decent starter this year.
3B - Ian Stewart

OBP: .347 | ISO: .217 | SPEED: +5.3 | DEF+: +1.59
With Garrett Atkins out of the way, Ian Stewart is the unquestioned starter at third base. However, he was a streaky player in 2009. In order to be more effective in 2010 he'll need to raise his line drive percentage from a low 14.1% in 2009.
C - Chris Ianetta

OBP: .368 | ISO: .204 | SPEED: +3.2 | DEF+: +11.29
Despite losing the starting job for the Rockies down the final stretch of the '09 season to Yorvit Torrealba, Iannetta enters training camp as the starting catcher with Miguel Olivo as his backup. His down season can be attributed to a low BABIP (.253), but it's his ability to get on base and to handle a pitching staff that make him valuable.
CF - Dexter Fowler

OBP: .370 | ISO: .130 | SPEED: +6.8 | DEF+: +2.02
Fowler has all the tools to be a great all-around player in the majors, but he has ways to go. The power should come with time. He'll need to work on reducing his strikeout rate, but Fowler should steadily work things out over the year.
LF - Carlos Gonzalez

OBP: .345 | ISO: .196 | SPEED: +5.9 | DEF+: -4.40
Gonzalez may just be on the way to becoming a star with his speed, defense, and potential power. Learning to take a few more pitches will help him immensely.
RF - Brad Hawpe

OBP: .367 | ISO: .211 | SPEED: +3.0 | DEF+: -17.81
The past year was a tale of two seasons for Hawpe. He had an All-Star first half, but fell apart in the second. His power disappeared and his defense continued to deteriorate. Having a good arm doesn't help if you don't know how to use it effectively.
SS - Troy Tulowitzki

OBP: .373 | ISO: .211 | SPEED: +4.3 | DEF+: +20.92
Perhaps the best young shortstop in the game, Tulowtizki recovered from a slow start to the 2009 season to finish the season with 30+ homers and 20 steals. Throw in his excellent defense and you have the cornerstone of a franchise. Avoiding another early season slump will be a key to helping the Rockies jump out of the gate this year.
Team Composite - Colorado Rockies

The Rockies appear to be a slower team with some excellent young pieces in place for the 2010 season. With few obvious holes in the outfield, an excellent on-base effort, and a solid slugging ability (a little Rocky Mountain High doesn't hurt, no matter how much they humidify the ball), this team should expect success if their rotation can go toe-to-toe with the competition.
Note: Colorado ranks first in the division for every DiamondView category except for base-running for these projections. Stay with us to see how they compare to their rivals in the West. - Justin
Up next: San Francisco Giants
Thanks again for the contributions from Russ Oates of Purple Row. If you're not a regular reader, check out their site, they run a good show, have a great community, and just landed an absolutely fantastic interview with fan favorite Clint Barmes.
40 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Does anyone else get the feeling
that Colorado could be the best team in that division next season?
A good bullpen, one of the better all-around lineups in the game, and a rotation fronted by Ubaldo Jimenez? Sounds to me like a pretty legitimate contender. I really believe that O’Dowd earned the recognition as BA’s Executive of the Year, he’s quietly built up quite an organization in Colorado.
I know that you could do this with a lot of teams, but I mean, a projected 2013 rotation of Jimenez, Tyler Matzek, Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin and Esmil Rogers/Rex Brothers sounds pretty intimidating to me.
First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
YES ABSOLUTELY
Although maybe I shouldn’t count, as a writer at Purple Row.
Also, odowd just fortified the back end of the bullpen in signing Rafael Betancourt and Huston Street to multi-year deals. There are no glaring weaknesses with the team
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2010 2:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
YES ABSOLUTELY
As a fan of a non-NL team, I can say that in a more objective sense.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Wow
DiamondView really likes Ian stewart.
"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2010 2:26 PM EST reply actions
More specifically, CHONE like Ian Stewart.
The DiamondView likes the way he looks in a technicolor dreamcoat.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
Compare him to the positional average for a little perspective, though.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
Not sure this was clear--
Sean at baseballprojection was kind enough to provide a positional adjustment per 150 games for each position on top of the original +/- CHONE Def rating. The data for DiamondView includes this adjustment projected for the number of CHONE-projected games.
If that makes this clearer, I’ll be shocked.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
Do you know how
his Catcher Defense numbers are done? I spent a few minutes looking over them and it’s not totally clear to me.
Hating Cubs fans since 1908
RE: Catcher defense
I can’t speak for Rally, but I’m pretty sure he does them the same way most catcher defense is currently done. Find an avg CS%, WP+PB/(some denomination of time caught, like PA caught), and compare the player involved to the league average rate. Convert to runs using the difference between the two events (run diff. between SB and CS, for example).
You can check Rally’s site to see what else he calculates, I can’t remember it off the top of my head. As for the projection part, that’s stuff he doesn’t reveal and he’s constantly tinkering with, so I don’t really know.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
What are these numbers relative to?
Are they relative to league-average (so Todd Helton is in the 99th percentile of the league) or to team-average or to position average or to NL West-average? There are some big numbers here, and, though I think the Rockies are good, I didn’t think they were that good. Stewart and Iannetta in particular seem out of line to their performance last year.
by controlled_slide on Jan 19, 2010 2:26 PM EST reply actions
they are chone projections
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2010 2:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
League.
To be exact, 99th percentile of the 794 players included in the study.
The positional average includes every player of the 794 in that specific position.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
Wow
CHONE really likes the Rockies. That’s exciting for the team next year.
by controlled_slide on Jan 19, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
its hip to be square
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2010 2:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I know I shouldn't be picky
But I think that Carlos Gonzalez should be rated higher for his defense. I think he’s probably better than Dexter Fowler (although I’m happy that CHONE likes him better than UZR does).
by controlled_slide on Jan 19, 2010 2:37 PM EST reply actions
Fowler's 2009 UZR pretty clearly appears to be an outlier
I mean, does anyone actually believe that Fowler is 20 runs below average defensively?
His TotalZone numbers in the minors fluctuated greatly (-18 in 2006, +18 in 2007, +1 in 2008), so it’s tough to get a read on what kind of fielder he actually is given the (very) limited statistical data.
I think that it’s likely that he’s about where he’s projected: one or two runs below average over the course of 150 games in center.
First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 19, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
watching Fowler
He did have some issues in center in 2009. Not 20 runs below average, but I could buy lower than average or CarGo. He had some difficulty on reads and made inexcusable errors, but he has the tools to improve, and I expect that uzr to look much more friendly in 2010
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2010 5:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
CHONEs aren't park-neutral, right? So that'll make Rockies' hitting numbers look better than they "should" be...
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
Sky, I believe all of his projections are park neutral.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
Wait, let me not put my foot in my mouth before I do the research.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
At first, I have to admit, I didn't think these numbers were solid.
I mean, I saw 80s and 90s in everything and I’m like, "I have to reduce this player pool to get any separation."
But then I looked at the projection for the Giants (a couple 60-something averages) and will take this for what it is—a better than average hitting team with a nice homefield advantage.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
OMG
We’re the best team ever! This is fantastic, and won’t at all raise expectations to eye-bleedingly high levels before the 2010 season :)
Purple Row has invaded Beyond the Boxscore :-)
"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2010 4:21 PM EST reply actions
Just want to say how much I love these charts.
It’s one of the best stat visualizations I’ve seen for baseball and I really dig the improvements.
If only Troy Tulowitzki could improve his base running
Then he would pretty much have a full square
"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2010 4:25 PM EST reply actions
he has the tools to
He could easily swipe 25 bags once he learns to choose his spots better.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2010 5:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Definitely the team’s biggest weakness.
That said, if there’s one to have, that might be the least damaging.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
do you know why
Chone removes a range factor from baserunning? I know Clint Barmes rated as one of the best in mlb last year at taking the extra base, so I expected his baserunning score to be a bit higher.
Iannetta, hawpe and Helton are pure station to station runners, but the other spots have potential. Cargo and Fowler showed glimpses of being legit stolen base threats.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2010 5:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Why oh why did Beane have to trade Gonzalez
Do not like. This is saddening.
Sorry, three months of Holliday’s awesome performance do not compare.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
CarGo still has to show me he can adapt when pitchers learn the book on him before I get too excited for him
(Don’t forget Street was also in that deal, who just signed a three year deal today)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions



















